NL Central Offseason Preview: Who's Buying, Who's Selling?

[Brandon Glick]

Following a season in which everyone in the division besides the Brewers disappointed, how are the Cubs’ rivals going to approach this winter?

Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cubs find themselves in an interesting position this offseason. They should be obvious buyers, after finishing 83-79 for a second consecutive season. Meanwhile, the other four teams in their division are facing payroll questions, broadcasting/television concerns, and/or stagnating cores. The Brewers won the NL Central handily in 2024, though they failed to advance past the Wild Card round of the playoffs thanks to Devin Williams hanging a changeup to oft-rumored Cubs target Pete Alonso.

Like one year ago, the Cubs enter the winter with a chance to become the unquestioned favorites in the National League’s least daunting division. Whether or not they will seize the moment remains to be seen, though. In the meantime, let’s take a look at each of their four division rivals and see who will be buying and who will be selling over the next few months.

Milwaukee Brewers
2024 Finish: 93-69 (1st Place)
The Brewers are in a bit of an odd state after suffering their heartbreaker against the Mets. For the better part of the last half-decade, they’ve clearly been the class of the division, even after they traded away 2021 NL Cy Young Corbin Burnes and lost his co-ace, Brandon Woodruff, to injury. However, they continue to operate with a svelte budget, and they face a number of pressing free agency cases—especially that of star shortstop Willy Adames.

Jackson Chourio is a bona fide superstar, and will be a pain for the Cubs for years to come, while Freddy Peralta, William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and others form a solid core to build around. However, the perennially underfunded Brew Crew will probably have to trade one (or both) of Rhys Hoskins and Devin Williams, both of whom are expensive and entering the final year of their respective contracts.

Christian Yelich’s contract remains a major pain point, because his $23.8 million AAV has started to outstrip his production as he ages and deals with injuries. At this point, he’s probably going to be relegated to designated hitter as well—and will hamstring what the Brewers can do in free agency. As such, if they’re going to add, they’ll have to do it on the trade market, while plucking from a middle-of-the-road farm system.

This is a well-coached, intelligently-run organization, even with Craig Counsell plying his trade in Chicago nowadays. The Brewers will sell off some costly veterans while bringing in a number of young, high-upside players. They won’t compete with the Cubs for the prized free agents in this winter’s class, but they’ll be an active player on the hot stove nonetheless.

Verdict: Ambiguous (both buyer & seller)

St. Louis Cardinals
2024 Finish: 83-79 (T-2 Place)
The Cardinals are one of the teams most impacted by the Diamond Sports bankruptcy, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding their television revenue streams. MLB Insider John Denton expects that the team will slash their payroll by upwards of $60 million this offseason.

Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Ryan Helsley are all expected to be dealt ,as the team moves toward employing cheaper, younger talent. They won’t be able to get a lot in deals for those players on their own (save perhaps Helsley), but the Cardinals are entering a legitimate rebuilding period for the first time since Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols first arrived. This has been a really good team for a long time, but the bill always comes due, and the Cardinals’ pattern of having one of the oldest rosters in baseball wasn’t going to work forever.

Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge are all pending free agents, and will certainly walk away. The Cardinals are the most obvious seller in the division, and probably the favorite at this point in time to finish last in the NL Central next season.

Verdict: Seller

Cincinnati Reds
2024 Finish: 77-85 (4th Place)
The Reds only have two pending free agents: Justin Wilson and Buck Farmer. Jakob Junis has a mutual option. Brent Suter and Luke Maile have team options. And Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán have player options.

That’s it. The Reds are going to be bringing back the vast majority of a core that played nearly-.500 ball in the second half of the season. They just hired Terry Francona as manager, and have a tantalizing young core of players led by Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. They only have about $70 million in luxury tax commitments on their roster for 2025 (though that number will go up with arbitration cases), putting them about $90 million behind the league average.

Cincinnati almost never plunges into the deep end of free agency, but they have the money and foundational pieces to justify it this year. They’re going to make additions on the trade market as well—another starter, and a power bat at first base or the corner outfield will be high on their priority list—and should pose a serious and immediate threat to the Cubs and Brewers for divisional supremacy. They should be a favorite for a reunion with Sonny Gray, in particular, if the Cardinals indeed hold a fire sale.

Verdict: Buyer

Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 Finish: 76-86 (5th Place)
For what it’s worth, the Pirates’ 76 wins would have been good enough to finish outside the cellar in any other division in 2024. Whether that speaks to the mediocrity of the NL Central or the state of certain franchises around baseball is up for interpretation.

Regardless, the Pirates have an obvious strength to build around: starting pitching—their three-headed monster of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller, in particular. General manager Ben Cherrington already hinted at this being a trade-heavy offseason for the team, as it seeks to build around a core of players that also includes outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, and catcher Joey Bart. The team lacks impact hitters at the top of their farm system, so if they want to add more offense after the team finished bottom-three in the NL in runs scored for the fifth year in a row, they’ll have to do it on the trade market.

Of course, we all know by now that Pirates owner Bob Nutting is too cheap to pursue meaningful additions in free agency. Perhaps the presence of Skenes, and his immense popularity on social media, will push Nutting to spend some money to make the team more relevant, but that’s a pipe dream at best for Pirates fans.

Expect Pittsburgh to be very active on the trade market as a buyer, though they’ll be bargain bin shopping no matter what route they choose to pursue.

Verdict: Buyer

View full article

[mul21]

The Cards actually hold team options on Lynn and Gibson and I'd bet they pick up Gibson's option.

[Billy62]

Now that the World Series is over, the winter will really begin. After two competitive yet not playoff qualifying seasons, am really curious about who the Cubs part ways with and the new faces coming aboard. This can be an exciting and heart wrenching period. Let the dealings begin. 🙂

[Brandon Glick]

On 10/31/2024 at 9:58 AM, mul21 said:

The Cards actually hold team options on Lynn and Gibson and I'd bet they pick up Gibson's option.

Thanks for catching. The Cardinals official website doesn't do a great job of adjudicating that stuff. But it's no surprise that they're behind the times...

[mul21]

12 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

Thanks for catching. The Cardinals official website doesn't do a great job of adjudicating that stuff. But it's no surprise that they're behind the times...

Like an hour after I posted that they declined options on Lynn, Gibson and someone else so they really are slashing everything.  Lots of speculation around here about whether or not they dump Gray, Contreras and Arenado too.  Just crazy.

[Brandon Glick]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Like an hour after I posted that they declined options on Lynn, Gibson and someone else so they really are slashing everything.  Lots of speculation around here about whether or not they dump Gray, Contreras and Arenado too.  Just crazy.

Yea, it looks like the TV and broadcasting issues are hitting them really hard. Mozeliak has not been shy about the team's direction. I imagine it'll be a full-on firesale, starting with Gray. Not sure what they could get for Arenado and his contract

[Billy62]

Not surprisingly, but still somewhat saddening was reading where Kyle Hendricks has selected free agency. I don't think the Cubs are of a mind to offer him a deal, so its basically the exclamation point to the end of his tenure with the Cubs. Likewise, Jorge Lopez also selected free agency, and the team sent Caleb Knight down to Iowa. The first hurdle here will be the releasing of players on the 60-Day injured list to the 40-man roster. And the 40-man is filled, so there are going to be some early decisions. Alzolay, Almonte, Merryweather, Madrigal, and Wisdom come to mind. I am sure there are others but had a few beers waiting on the trick-or-treaters, so the mind is not in mid-season form. 🙂