Are Narratives Surrounding The 2024 Cubs Accurate?

[Brian Kelder]

Cub fans are an intelligent lot, though the online narratives often take on a life of their own. Some of these ideas are easily debunked or proven correct. Let's review a few of these and see how accurate Cub fans can be.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

1. The Cubs Offense is Not Clutch Enough

Here are the Cubs' totals for the season. For some context, the Cubs are below average on OPS by 32 points and batting average by .004. The home run output is good for 20th in the league per game. Speed did make up for some of the deficits by stealing the seventh-most bases in baseball. This establishes their baseline performance.

All stats from Baseball-Reference

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
2024 Totals	1544	146	5509	4899	667	1175	237	26	153	628	131	27	491	1244	.240	.315	.393	.708	1923	72	66	15	37	18	24	.289	100	99

Clutch Stats

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
RISP	145		1436	1204	499	295	65	8	40	462	54	7	165	311	.245	.336	.412	.748	496	23	18	12	37	18	5	.287	112	10

Leverage Situations

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
High Lvrge	137		1038	887	271	227	43	5	32	252	49	5	109	209	.256	.340	.424	.763	376	27	14	7	21	9	5	.292	116	114
Medium Lvrge	146		2039	1827	207	423	77	6	60	197	48	16	172	455	.232	.306	.379	.684	692	21	26	7	7	5	8	.275	94	91
Low Lvrge	146		2432	2185	189	525	117	15	61	179	34	6	210	580	.240	.313	.391	.705	855	24	26	1	9	4	11	.299	99	100

 

These two boxes amaze me. There's no meaningful difference in their results based on situation. The Cubs are neither clutch nor not clutch. They clearly have an approach, they clearly stick to that approach, and the results are the same in all situations. The organization has always been process over results; that's why we had to watch Christopher Morel for months, and that's why they won't panic over a bad half season from Isaac Paredes. But to say they are chokers is just not accurate.

The Cubs seem to have their approach locked in at all times, in all places, and don't vary from that approach. Craig Counsell was known for that same philosophy in Milwaukee. Jed Hoyer lives his entire life I'm sure under the process over results mantra. They simply don't deviate from their set process.

So we cannot draw from this any conclusions about being clutch, or being chokers, or not trying to win. The stats say the Cubs just are what they are statistically, regardless of the situation. They may be better served in the future by a more power-based approach, or by having multiple guys who can mash. The Cubs need to be in less high leverage situations; this type of hitter would help give distance in certain games. But to say this team isn't clutch is disingenuous. They simply are what they are.

 

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2: The Cubs Can't Hit At Home

Home And Road

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	736	71	2543	2269	284	508	97	13	69	263	55	11	227	606	.224	.300	.369	.669	838	29	26	6	14	4	11	.273	89	86
Away	808	75	2966	2630	383	667	140	13	84	365	76	16	264	638	.254	.328	.413	.741	1085	43	40	9	23	14	13	.302	109	111

This one is really strange this season. Wrigley Field has been by Statcast park effects the second hardest park to hit in this season. What's really strange is that in 2023 it was the ninth easiest. Something really strange happened with the weather. Now before you get excited about the hitters rebounding, let's look if the Cubs pitching had the same effects:

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
Home	38	33	.535	3.15	286	71	70	1	0	17	642.0	537	250	225	67	203	1	641	22	4	17	2658	1.153	9.0	3.16
Away	37	38	.493	4.42	304	75	75	0	0	16	648.0	629	357	318	93	234	5	588	24	2	19	2781	1.332	8.2	2.51

 

Look at that. A full 1.3 runs less per game given at home, a significant discrepancy in WHIP as well. Strikeouts were even moderately bumped up, and walks reduced at home.

Something strange happened with the weather at Wrigley this summer, but it's too early to tell if it's a long term trend or if it's just a one summer event. Nobody knows. Weather is weird and getting weirder. One year, in North Carolina, there were four hurricanes. That doesn't mean every year there's been four. It's fickle thing.

Another factor that could be or could not be a contributor is the signage around Wrigley. In the most recent Northside Territory podcast, Shadahev Sharma posited that the luxury boxes behind home plate have blocked outgoing breezes. Conversation also speculated about the giant video board affecting wind speed and all of these make sense to the untrained and ignorant eye. Only time can tell if Wrigley will become similar to T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

If Wrigley reverts to normal, we cannot count on the pitching staff maintaining this pace. Shota Imanaga, however, with his 18.7 launch angle (12.3 is league average) would be in some trouble if those fly balls left the park. Javier Assad's high wire act would not be as successful in a normal weather season. Even Justin Steele's fly ball rate rose. We can't count on the same production from the pitchers given how much park factors helped them this year. The rotation needs to be addressed.

Regardless of park factors, the lineup needs to be addressed. Cody Bellinger is likely to opt out. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ can't be counted on to improve. If the weather is like this, the power numbers won't increase. It will be important to diversify their offensive profile.

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3. The Cubs Don't Want To Win Over 83 Games

Come on. They want to win 83 games and think that their plan will work. It's an open book as to if it will.

What they have not done is address anything in a long term manner. Left unsaid by the Jed Hoyer hating masses, and he's for sure not perfect, is that there have been zero long term assets that would have been great investments. Dansby Swanson was the long term play and he's rapidly becoming a scapegoat and is now in his 30s. How would Carlos Correa or Xander Boegaerts look instead for more money? Jed Hoyer really has been wise to not invest in several of the long term megadeals that have presented themselves, at least for players realistically attainable.

Now this offseason, Cub fans should demand an honest pursuit of Juan Soto to finish the lineup. This alone would raise projections to 90 wins. He's that impactful. Cub fans deserve that next superstar in the middle of the order.

If this fails, the projections will be right around 83 wins again. The North Siders then will count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to perform offensively as he has been the second half of the 2024 season. This is the star, then. Cam Smith is coming up and projects in this writer's brain as a second star. Matt Shaw, well, maybe. Kevin Alcantara is another hope. The kids will have to improve to beat that 83 wins. This is the most likely path Hoyer will take.

I don't think Hoyer feels any pressure to win more games. Well, he probably does, but much like their offense, Jed follows his process almost to a fault. If he's aligned with ownership, don't be surprised if he's extended in the offseason.

 

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