Pete Crow-Armstrong Is Becoming The Player Cubs Fans Dreamed On

[Brian Kelder]

After early-season struggles, the Cubs' centerfielder is rounding into form.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The story of August is that the Cubs are in a bit of a hot stretch. Entering the day off on Thursday, August 29, the Cubs have won nine of their previous twelve games, beating up on the Pirates, Marlins, and Tigers. For the month, the team is 17-8. Take away a three-game sweep by the playoff-leading Guardians, and a 17-5 record is exactly what fans should have hoped for this month, given the competition. But what this individual month means for 2024 isn't the most exciting part of this stretch.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has done what Cody Bellinger did in 2023: Performed as a star would and carried the offense for an extended stretch. For August, check out this stat line:

Month	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
August	24	24	90	79	16	26	4	2	4	14	6	1	8	12	.329	.398	.582	.980	46	1	1	2	0	2	0	.349	189	168

Prorated to 162 games, Crow-Armstrong is on pace for 108 runs and 95 RBI from this month's data. The pace is even more impressive when one factors his position in the eight spot of the lineup. Twenty-seven doubles, 14 triples, and 27 home runs would also be a fantastic season-long result. He still is not walking at an impressive clip, but cutting his strikeouts to a season pace of 81 is great. Forty-one steals are just gravy on this potato of a stat line.

For comparison, here are his monthly totals from the rest of the season. All stats are from Baseball-Reference.

Month	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	7	5	19	18	2	5	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	4	.278	.278	.500	.778	9	0	0	1	0	0	0	.308	126	118
May	18	14	50	43	3	10	1	1	0	5	5	0	3	10	.233	.306	.302	.608	13	0	2	1	1	0	0	.294	85	78
June	26	19	75	69	3	10	0	2	0	4	10	0	3	27	.145	.192	.203	.395	14	1	1	2	0	0	0	.238	19	11
July	20	19	69	66	6	13	4	1	2	7	5	0	3	13	.197	.232	.379	.611	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	.216	79	64

 

This came almost out of nowhere. Ol' Pete was scuffling along, casting doubt on himself, his future, and whether Jed Hoyer should be fired today or tomorrow. Then, boom. August came, and he looked even better than the biggest prospect fan in Cubdom would have projected.

Under the hood, hard contact has been a significant driver of his success. For August, he raised his exit velocity to 91.7, which would rank him in the top 35 in baseball for the entire season. He also makes hard contact 48% of the time, and 10% of swings are barrels. This is an improvement from an 88 mph exit velocity, 25% hard contact, and a doubled barrel rate from 5% for the season before August. His contact is the same; he's just doing it more often. And, of course, walking more and striking out less.

The trade of Javy Baez for Crow-Armstrong in 2021 already has been a win for the Cubs to avoid the Baez contract, although he probably would have been better had he stayed in a city that adored him. This month, though, has to be eye-opening. This kind of a month is exactly what you would want to see from a top 20 prospect as he adjusts to major league pitching. Factoring his speed, flair, and penchant for the big moment, Cub fans should look to enjoy their new center fielder for at least the next six seasons.

In the long term, this will validate Jed Hoyer and his patient strategy of building this team from the ground up. The Cubs would certainly approach this offseason differently had PCA not gone on this run. How will they now approach lineup building in the offseason?

There are already numerous reports that the Cubs are out on Juan Soto. Assuming these aren't smokescreens, and assuming the Cubs share the sentiment around baseball and have studied team construction in baseball history, the Cubs are counting on their next big bat to be a homegrown one. Crow-Armstrong has had a massive August; Jed will use this to justify his patience with prospects. Don't look for the team to spend big on the lineup.

Jed Hoyer said that near the trade deadline, improvements on offense would have to be made internally. He will bank this offseason on baseball variance balancing out: Dansby Swanson doesn't hit like a shortstop from the 70s again, Nico Hoerner's hand/hamstring issues are resolved, Seiya Suzuki doesn't hurt himself, Isaac Paredes not being Cinderella's stagecoach only to become a pumpkin as his Cubs career begins, and of course the prospects. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be heralded as the linchpin of this offense; we will hear much hype about 2025 debuts for Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcantara, not to mention newly drafted Cam Smith. Hoyer will be emboldened by Crow-Armstrong and, to a lesser extent, Miguel Amaya's fine play to continue down this path he has charted.

Hopefully, and the above assumes Bellinger is back, the money would be used to add some arms to the front of the rotation and bullpen. Only time will tell what the available funds will be, not to mention the overall budget. We know that in August, Crow-Armstrong was the star Chicago had lacked since 2019. A repeat September would clarify the plans for 2025 and beyond. As the competition heats up again, and the Cubs fancy themselves playoff contenders, Pete will have to lead the way this season and in the next several.

 

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