Nate Pearson and the Not-High-Enough Fastball Pose a Cubs Bullpen Conundrum

[Davy Andrews]

It's the curious case of a tight end-sized human who can't reach the top shelf.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

I love watching Nate Pearson pitch. He’s a big, strong guy who stands 6-foot-5, weighs 255 pounds, and yet he throws his fastball like a tiny, strong guy. Pearson releases his fastball 5.42 feet above the ground. Of the 222 pitchers who have thrown at least 300 four-seamers this season, that’s the 37th-lowest release point. For comparison’s sake, Drew Smyly is 6-foot-2, three inches shorter than Pearson, but he releases his sinker more than 14 inches higher, at 6.71 feet. Here’s what that looks like in action. The red lines below show the heights of the two balls at the moment of release.

Reminder: the guy on the left is three inches shorter than the guy on the right. Pearson gets low via a few different means: he doesn’t stand as tall as Smyly, his arm angle isn’t as steep, and he gets much farther down the mound. Seriously, look how far forward he is. His front foot very nearly lands on completely flat ground.

That last factor also gives Pearson excellent extension. He releases the ball 6.9 feet in front of the rubber, which puts him in the 87th percentile, an entire foot farther than Smyly. Pearson’s four-seamer averages 97.5 mph, but that extension means that its perceived velocity is nearly a full mile per hour faster, giving the batter less time to react. In fact, among those 222 pitchers, it ranks 13th in perceived velocity.

There’s just one problem with Pearson’s fastball: It’s performing terribly. Of our 222 pitchers, its .391 wOBA allowed is the 22nd-highest, and its run value of -1.3 runs per 100 pitches is the 13th-lowest. Somehow, this 97.5-mph four-seamer, which plays even faster, is one of the worst in baseball. Stuff+ loves Pearson’s fastball, rating it an excellent 123. However, Location+ gives it a below-average 94. PitchingBot tells the same tale, giving the pitch a 60 for stuff and a 43 for command.

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