The Unexpected Revival of Kyle Hendricks

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There isn't much to be excited about right now, but one old friend's revival should bring some joy.

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Amid a stretch where the Cubs have been entirely devoid of joy or positivity, it’s been hard to find something optimistic to write about. Not that everything I write has to be optimistic, but that also makes me, and hopefully you, feel good and helps give me something to look forward to when I turn the game on every day. One small thing that I have found myself clinging to, one because the team sorely needs it, and two because it reminds me of the days when it was a lot more fun to follow the Cubs: Kyle Hendricks is maybe, possibly, back. 

After putting up a 10.57 ERA in seven starts to begin the season, Hendricks was moved to the bullpen after a May 17 start against Pittsburgh. His first two outings in relief didn’t go a whole lot better: he allowed two runs in two innings in a loss to Atlanta on May 23, and he allowed three runs in 3 ⅔ innings in a loss to Milwaukee six days later. It was clear that Craig Counsell didn’t want to use him in leverage situations, effectively making him a waste of a roster spot. Most fans were ready for him to call it a career in what would have been an uneventful ending for a Cubs legend. 

Not so fast! Of course, The Professor will not go down without a fight. In three relief outings and two starts since the start of June, Hendricks has a 1.27 ERA, an almost equally as good 2.21 FIP, and has struck out 16 hitters in 21 ⅓ innings pitched. His .242 xwOBA allowed was the lowest in a calendar month since May 2016. Where is this new success coming from?

Hendricks has started throwing his curveballs significantly more often. After throwing it just 6.5 percent of the time in April and 8.4 percent in May, his pitch usage in June has jumped to 20.7 percent, the highest in any month of his career, according to Baseball Savant. If it felt like his curveball was slowly being phased out of his repertoire, that’s because it was. After throwing it a career-high 16.7 percent of the time in 2020, when he received votes for the Cy Young Award, it slowly declined to be used only 3.5 percent last season. 

His curveball usage over the past month is particularly impressive: he’s used it consistently in almost any count. Compare his pitch selection in June of this year to 2020. In 2020, his curveball usage was pretty confined to when he was ahead in the count. However, This month, he has used it consistently across all counts save for 3-0 and 3-1. 

Of course, as evidenced by his overall results this month, this has worked wonderfully! Hitters have a -47 wRC+ against his curveball, according to FanGraphs. They hit it into the ground 66.7 percent of the time, chased it 28.3 percent, and swung and missed it 12.1 percent. Those are all career-highs for Hendricks with his curveball. 

Hitters will surely adjust. Once they become more aware of needing to account for a fourth pitch from Hendricks, I am sure they will start to hit it better than they have. As we’re all aware, the veteran right-hander isn’t exactly someone who relies on nasty stuff. It’s not exactly an unhittable curveball. 

With all that said, we can still take a step back and appreciate the wonder of Kyle Hendricks. Eventually, he will retire. But today is not that day. He’s innovated and found another way to keep succeeding. Despite existing in the era of velocity and nasty, bat-missing breaking balls, Kyle Hendricks, against all odds, persists with the 87-mph fastball and a 14th percentile strikeout rate. 

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