Article: Matt Mervis Returns To The Cubs, Will He Mash This Time?

[Jason Ross]

Matt Mervis had tons of helium coming into the 2023 season. After about 100 PAs and a somewhat sketchy return to Triple-A, his balloon seemed burst. Has there been any change in the 2024 version? 

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday afternoon, the Cubs recalled first baseman Matt Mervis to Wrigley Field. Long rumored to be on the trade block (especially after the Michael Busch acquisition), the Cubs held onto the lefty masher throughout the offseason and are giving him his second shot at MLB relevance. I wrote earlier this offseason about Matt Mervis and how his changes in 2023 left a lot to be desired, but that was back in January. Have things changed for the man named "Mash"? 

It's no secret Mervis struggled once he was called up last season. Despite having a low-70s contact rate in Triple-A, the first baseman struggled to maintain that level of contact the rest of the season. In the majors, he made contact on just 66.7% of his swings, and after returning to Triple-A, saw his contact rate there dip below 70% as well. While we can expect high-slug hitters to have lower contact rates, these are bottom-of-the-barrel rates and are problematic. Mervis especially struggled with contact rates against left-handed pitching, posting a sub-60% contact rate against southpaws on the season, all levels combined. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at Mervis' 2024 season, there are mixed results when it comes to his contact rate. First, the bad: his contact rate thus far in Triple-A this year is 68%, which is nearly 4% lower than the Triple-A league average. His in-zone whiff percentage is also elevated, sitting at around 2% higher than the league average. Neither of these are moving in the right direction. You can see in the charts above that where he's missing has changed a bit: he's missing much more up, but much less in (more on this later). This shows where the whiff rates are up, and the zones are changing. 

Enough with the negativity; let's talk about the positives. The first and probably largest positive is that he's chasing way less. He has dropped his chase rate from 27% to 22%. That's huge. If you're only going to make contact with 68% of the pitches you swing at, you better make 'em count. He's also seen positive movement in his ability to hit lefties, going from someone who had that sub 60% contact rate up to 72% (it's only 25 PAs, so we're talking small sample size, but it's positive movement).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keeping the positive vibes up on Matt Mervis, we can see that his exit velocity and his contact type have improved. He's improved his average exit velocity from roughly 86mph to 93.8mph while reducing the amount of ground balls he's hit by 4%. He's also pulling the ball more, likely aiding the exit velocity jump. Perhaps even more encouraging is where he's making exit velocity gains. Below are three exit-velocity-heat maps—one from before his call-up in 2023, one after (Triple-A), and then today. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I think is important is to note the progression. Mervis has worked to expand the areas where he's making hard contact. Prior to his call-up, there was a very small area in which he was making strong contact. We can see that thus far, in 2024, that area has expanded. He's making much harder contact inside on his hands and up. What's interesting to see as well is that his plate approach has changed a bit. His swing rate remains similar, but his swing decisions seem to have changed. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The charts above showcase how Matt Mervis has changed his swing decisions; he's making more and more of an effort to attack pitches a bit lower and covering a bit more of the plate. This likely resulted in better exit velocities across the board, which is why the charts are not so concentrated in the middle of the zone. This also seems to be having a positive effect on his barrel rate. This correlates with the miss rates; he's really punishing pitches inside this year like he hadn't before, possibly sacrificing hitting the high pitches a bit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, what does it all boil down to? There has been a change in how Matt Mervis does things at the plate. He's making roughly the same amount of contact, but where he's making contact and, more importantly, where he's not chasing have changed. Thus far, this has resulted in more barrels, more pulls, harder-hit baseballs, and better plate coverage. It'd be easy to look just at the contact rate and say that maybe things haven't changed that much, but this seems like a better version of the first baseman. This fills me with confidence that things are changing for the better, and he'll have more success the second time around. With that said, I want to caution one thing: it's impossible to tell if this is a processing change or that Mervis has nearly 700 PAs at the Triple-A level under his belt, and he's just...comfortable. For Mash's sake, I'm glad he's getting another chance...he could have taken his demotion in a negative way, but I see a lot of positive changes under the hood. 

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What do you expect from Matt Mervis this time around? Is this data encouraging? Or do you think he's just a Quadruple-A player?

 

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[Billy62]

     And the Mervis saga continues. It has been an interesting watch so far. I classify Mervis currently as a AAAA prospect. Meaning he absolutely crushes pitching at the AAA level, but struggles mightily against major league pitchers. For the most part, major leaguers would be in the same class, maybe a bit better, than the elite AAA. I would be curious to see what numbers Mervis has against the AAA elite. That said though, experience means a lot, and maybe last year the pie was not quite done. I would just hate to see the Cubs give up on him, trade him away, and see him crack 35 and drive in 100 for somebody else. As a longtime Cub fan, that would be just our luck. Then that brings us to another issue. What if he starts thumping away? Then we have Busch and Mervis at the same spot. Do you DH one? Or do you try them in different spots? But where? Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are a solid outfield. Do you close your eyes and hope for the best and deal one of them? Good problems to have of course, but you still need a good supply of Tums. Still, it's shaping up to be an exciting ball club during an exciting season. I am 63 and been a fan since I was 7. I don't know how many of these seasons I have left. So, I am just going to relish this one. 🙂 See you at the park boys! 🙂

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Billy62 said:

     And the Mervis saga continues. It has been an interesting watch so far. I classify Mervis currently as a AAAA prospect. Meaning he absolutely crushes pitching at the AAA level, but struggles mightily against major league pitchers. For the most part, major leaguers would be in the same class, maybe a bit better, than the elite AAA. I would be curious to see what numbers Mervis has against the AAA elite. That said though, experience means a lot, and maybe last year the pie was not quite done. I would just hate to see the Cubs give up on him, trade him away, and see him crack 35 and drive in 100 for somebody else. As a longtime Cub fan, that would be just our luck. Then that brings us to another issue. What if he starts thumping away? Then we have Busch and Mervis at the same spot. Do you DH one? Or do you try them in different spots? But where? Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are a solid outfield. Do you close your eyes and hope for the best and deal one of them? Good problems to have of course, but you still need a good supply of Tums. Still, it's shaping up to be an exciting ball club during an exciting season. I am 63 and been a fan since I was 7. I don't know how many of these seasons I have left. So, I am just going to relish this one. 🙂 See you at the park boys! 🙂

I've always been fine moving Mervis for help elsewhere and I probably still think that's a fine way forward. First base is a hard position to really crack into being so bat heavy. The Cubs are also loaded on interesting prospects behind him and they'll need homes...the DH is one. With Busch looking like a real deal player Mervis remains expendable.

With that said I'd love to see him crush it. He's got a cool story, going from two way college players, to UDFA (weird draft be damned), to bad first impression, to rocket ship, to bubble burst to return...I'm rooting for him to make me eat those words.

[Jason Ross]

I'll add this here too: Garrett Cooper is reportedly to have just left Wrigley. Whether an IL or DFA...your guess is as good as mine. Just rumors on twitter so far, but would make sense as to why Mervis is up.