Article: José Cuas Is Pitching Himself Off the Cubs

[Brandon Glick]

Less than a year ago, José Cuas was the return in an ill-fated deadline trade with the Royals. Now, his roster spot hangs by a thread.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

José Cuas was expected to be a key part of the Cubs bullpen this year, after coming over from Kansas City in July 2023. In return, the Cubs surrendered slugging outfielder Nelson Velázquez, who hit 14 home runs while getting full playing time in the Royals’ outfield in the second half of last season.

Cuas, to put it mildly, has been bad in the early part of the 2024 season. In Monday's devastating loss to the San Diego Padres, Cuas was the first man out of the bullpen following Javier Assad's start. Cuas only was able to record one out, while giving up four runs (two earned) on three hits. His season ERA is 9.00, and he’s somehow been worth -0.3 WAR in 5 innings pitched.

Now, small sample caveats apply in spades here. After being acquired by the Cubs at last year’s trade deadline, Cuas was worth 0.6 WAR in 23 2/3 innings. As we’re seeing early on this year, however, a lot of that success was with smoke and mirrors. Cuas was walking too many batters even as he walked the tightrope in the second half of 2023, and although he's been in the zone so far in 2024, he’s been far more hittable (eight hits surrendered). What he’s given the Cubs in limited exposure this year has been outright disastrous. There’s no excuse for him to keep appearing in games that are within reach at this point, but having a reliever who is purely designated for mop-up duty isn’t ideal when the team is already down starting pitchers Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon.

When reviewing the trade the Cubs made for Cuas, the first move that will likely pop into people’s minds is the Wade Davis-for-Jorge Soler swap following the 2016 World Series win. Though the teams and positions of the players are the same (which in and of itself is a crazy coincidence), there are plenty of differences. Soler was far more accomplished in his time in the big leagues at the time of that trade, while Davis was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. On the flip side, Velázquez had received sporadic (at best) playing time while with the Cubs, and Cuas had shown elite stuff but frustrating inconsistencies. It is worth mentioning that, unlike Davis (who was a free agent after one year in Chicago), Cuas is under control through 2029. He’s not even eligible for arbitration until the 2026 season.

To Cubs:
RP José Cuas, 2023 Stats w/ KCR: 41.2 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.61 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 4.5 BB/9
RP Wade Davis, 2016 Stats w/ KCR: 43.1 IP, 1.87 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9

To Royals:
OF Nelson Velázquez*, Stats w/ CHC: 238 PA, .210/.290/.407, 9 HR, 91 OPS+, -0.6 WAR
OF Jorge Soler, 2016 Stats w/ CHC: 264 PA, .238/.333/.436, 12 HR, 103 OPS+, 0.2 WAR

*Velázquez only had 32 plate appearances in 2023 before being traded, so it’s easier to cross-analyze when looking at his career stats with the Cubs (i.e., including 2022 in the picture).

It’s hard to say the Cubs didn’t get what they paid for in Davis, who was an All-Star and pitched to a 2.30 ERA in 58 2/3 innings in his sole season in the Windy City. Still, Soler was a highly productive player (for some admittedly bad Royals teams), even leading the American League in home runs in 2019, with 48. The Cubs would redo that trade ten times out of ten, given that Davis secured the save in all four of the team’s wins that postseason, but Kansas City cashed in on a short-term asset by securing a long-term one.

In contrast, the Cubs may be having a slight amount of buyer’s remorse regarding the Cuas trade. Velázquez is the everyday right fielder and/or designated hitter for the Royals, and performing well with that secure playing time, while Cuas has yet to find his footing as an ancillary arm in the North Siders’ bullpen. Nevertheless, this is still a reliever whose fastball had the ninth-best Stuff+ score last year (minimum 20 innings pitched), according to FanGraphs, and is still tinkering with some off-speed selections as he tries to find the right arsenal that works with his funky, sidearm delivery.

The Cubs, especially since the hiring of Carter Hawkins as GM, have touted the proficiency of their Pitch Lab™, and they see a guy whose stuff and makeup suggest there’s more in store than just a league-average reliever. Manager Craig Counsell has long been praised for his effective bullpen usage, and he wouldn’t be giving Cuas so much exposure if he didn’t have faith that the reliever could turn it around quickly.

Before people go shouting from the rooftops to have Cuas designated for assignment, it’s worth noting that he has option years remaining (i.e., he can be shuttled back and forth between the big leagues and the minors). With Julian Merryweather out for an undetermined amount of time following a rib injury, the team won’t be looking for reasons to ship Cuas out of town. Keegan Thompson is on the 40-man roster, and has looked good in a few appearances so far at Triple-A Iowa this season, but he’s coming off a lost year. Hayden Wesneski is likewise on the 40-man, but the Cubs appear determined to keep him stretched out as a starter in the early portion of the season.

Beyond them, the Cubs would have to open up a 40-man spot for a reliever like Carl Edwards Jr.or Richard Lovelady. The team may be replete with bullpen depth, but it doesn’t have a guaranteed replacement for Cuas waiting in the wings. The Dominican Republic native can’t risk things by continuing to keep pitching the way he has, but amid a 7-4 start to the season, the Cubs can afford to be patient for a little while longer.

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[Derek_Lee_Truther]

I understood why the Cubs made the trade when they did but I still never liked it. Velasquez was always good whenever he got playing time. David Ross just wouldn't give him a shot. 

[Billy62]

Well Brandon, I think we are starting to see one of the things we worried about from this team back during spring training, lack of true bullpen depth. So far during the start of the season it really has not been a major issue because the team is scoring runs......almost at an precedented pace. But, sooner or later that will stabilize and we will have to look to our pen. Its a glass half full-half empty thing. With Merriwether on the shelf for the foreseeable future, steady arms seem to be in short supply. We know what we are getting with Alzolay, Leiter, and maybe a couple of others, but after them it is plug and play, and some guys are not up to the challenge. Neris has stumbled a bit out of the gate, yet Almonte has been kind of encouraging. Maybe Edwards should be given a regular season look. I think taking a look at all we got early is the way to go. The if a DFA or deal has to be made down the road, at least we know.