Article: North Side Baseball's 2024 Chicago Cubs Season Preview

[CandidCubs]

Counsell. Busch. Belli. They're all here. So is baseball. So what do we think of the 2024 Chicago Cubs? More of the same, but better! Let me explain...

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Every day, my school days get further into the past. I may not be old enough to be phrasing this in such a manner, but I'm sure the structure of this sentence has transported you back to a potentially sweaty/awkward stage. 

Now that I have revealed so much about myself, I will get to my point. In school, I recall getting extremely elaborate assignments as semesters would end. The rubrics received with said assignments would be long and intricate, laying out what needed to be captured to achieve top marks. As the project begins, everyone has the intent of getting the best score. However, time, energy, effort, and a multitude of other factors push you toward what I used to refer to as the bargaining period. In this period, you would sacrifice sections of the project in order to spend more time on sections that were assigned higher point values, or to realistically complete the assignment in some form within the time constraints artificially or accidentally created.

At this point, you have now turned in a project that is not meeting all the objectives. However, you are fairly confident that in the areas you addressed, you will get full marks. 

That is the 2024 Chicago Cubs. They started the offseason addressing an area that has a meaningful impact on the team (manager Craig Counsell), but ended up only partially addressing segments of the roster that felt like top priorities as soon as the last out of the 2023 team was caught. 

The 2023 Cubs did only miss the playoffs by one game, but their fatal flaws were obvious by the end of the campaign:

1. Major-league quality relief pitching depth.
2. Major-league average (at minimum) production at first and third base. The Cubs ranked 28th in offensive production at the cold corner, and 25th at the hot one.
3. Additional starting rotation depth
4. A true star in the rotation and/or the lineup. 

The offesason started with a bang, with the Cubs taking Counsell in what felt like a Jokeresque magic trick. The rest is history. 

Players Departed

• Trey Mancini
• Eric Hosmer (Thank God)
• Marcus Stroman
• 1/2 of Jeimer Candelario 
• Nick Burdi
• Michael Fulmer
• Brad Boxberger
• Codi Heuer (That Kimbrel trade has had mixed results)

Players Added

• Shota Imanaga
• Cody Bellinger (Another Thank God)
• Héctor Neris
• Yency Almonte
• Michael Busch
• Garrett Cooper

Opening Day Roster
Position Players

• Yan Gomes
• Miguel Amaya
• Michael Busch
• Garrett Cooper
• Nick Madrigal
• Nico Hoerner
• Dansby Swanson
• Miles Mastrobuoni
• Christopher Morel
• Ian Happ
• Cody Bellinger
• Mike Tauchman
• Seiya Suzuki

Pitchers

• Javier Assad
• Shota Imanaga
• Kyle Hendricks
• Justin Steele
• Jordan Wicks
• Yency Almonte
• Adbert Alzolay
• José Cuas
• Mark Leiter Jr.
• Luke Little
• Julian Merryweather
• Héctor Neris
• Drew Smyly

In all, this is a very similar-looking group to last year's squad, with a huge difference at the managerial position.

forget off-season winners & losers -- I wanted to answer a much more simple question now that Opening Day is almost here:

how different are the 30 MLB rosters now compared to last year?

"returning" = still in the organization

new at @YahooSports: https://t.co/AlvbhTcxWU pic.twitter.com/DciDTLt0zh

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) March 27, 2024

I'll admit it is hard to quantify how much a manager can change things, but the commentary this offseason by Jed Hoyer on being "uncomfortable" and the pedigree Craig Counsell has built his career on has me feeling confident.

Strengths
Pitching Bullpen Depth
Down the stretch in 2023, the Cubs pitching staff looked gassed. On one hand, that is likely due to the career high in innings for guys like Steele and Merryweather, while also acknowledging that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins did not get enough quality major-league-caliber arms in that offseason or at the deadline. Keegan Thompson went from penciled-in weapon to a "that would be a nice surprise" in 2024. Daniel Palencia continues to be all stuff and mixed execution. This isn't quite Dillon Maples territory, but it feels eerily similar. 

The farm system has options to bolster this group through the year, though, while also adding veteran Héctor Neris, along with intriguing options in trade with Cuas and Almonte. Expect to see Ben Brown, Cam Sanders, and Thompson at some points, as well. 

Up-the-Middle Defense
Officially golden in phrasing and actuality, "Nickel and Dimes" will continue to hold together a defensive group that was a highlight in 2023. Getting Bellinger back in the fold as the organization awaits to deploy the star power of Pete Crow-Armstrong is a solid defensive move. 

Lineup Length/Flexibility
Even with a lot of spots locked down on the field, Counsell has options to take advantage of matchups using the corners, DH, and lineup order to maximize effectiveness. The 2023 bench was burdened with failed first-base experiments and ground-ball factories like Mancini and Hosmer. 

Weaknesses
Starting Rotation
Let me explain. Losing the ostensible reliability of a player like Marcus Stroman is a bigger deal than I think folks realize. The 162-game season is a marathon, and the minimum of 1,458 Innings of coverage needed takes a village. With Jameson Taillon starting the season on the injured list, the depth will be tested early, with Assad and Wicks slotting into the rotation until he is ready to return. 

Strikeouts
I have been preaching this on Bricks Behind the Ivy (sorry to the choir if you have been listening. Also, thank you for listening). This pitching staff is missing swing-and-miss. The global average strikeout rate is 22.7%. The Cubs, as a staff, had a 22.6% rate in 2023, but the bullpen did most of the heavy lifting just to get them into the average range. Imanaga's 46% spring rate is a good sign for a rotation looking for whiffs, but may not be enough. If the offseason had progressed at a different pace, do the rumors of Mariners starters or Shane Bieber come to fruition? There is still a trade deadline to try to address this. The good news is, this division has no juggernaut to knock anyone out early, besides the undefeated training room and injured list. 

Conclusion
Two people have said the following to me in recent weeks and it has really stuck in my brain. 

1. "The Cubs are not great at anything, nor are they bad at anything. It will take a hot team to beat them, as they won't beat themselves."
2. "Isn't this the window? Didn't we extend Nico and Happ at a cost-controlled rate, along with landing Dansby and Seiya to add to that core? If not now, when?"

In a division that is using computers to race to their versions of 85 wins, the Cubs have a very solid floor. They need Christopher Morel to put a full season together at the plate, similar to last year at least, and to be serviceable (or just tenable? Semi-playable?) at third base. Michael Busch would be a fun story and a savvy trade to put on Jed Hoyer's résumé. That production alone would make this team better than last year, as that would constitute the stability and averageness they didn't have at either corner at any point last year. There will be times this year when top-100 prospects will grace this roster to push them, as bright green ivy transitions to dark tones with mixed-in reds in the fall. 

However, it is hard not to wonder what a more all-in effort would look like in a division up for grabs. Will the (very) team-friendly Scott Boras swap meet at the end of the offseason that benefited NL Wild Card hopefuls in the West come back to haunt the less eager Cubs?

Time will tell.

Prediction: 88-74, popping Division Champion champagne bottles

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How do you think the Cubs will do this year? Are they a playoff team? Let us know below. Happy Opening Day!

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[CubinNY]

I think you have to put HR in the weakness column, with SP and the lineup. 

[CandidCubs]

On 3/28/2024 at 8:14 AM, CubinNY said:

I think you have to put HR in the weakness column, with SP and the lineup. 

Agreed. Slugging is a concern, but a full season of Morel should hopefully help. The wild card is who Michael Busch ends up being.