Article: Crafting the Perfect Lineup: Optimizing the Chicago Cubs' Batting Order Against LHP

[Sean Chapin]

New Cubs manager Craig Counsell is known for getting the most out of his 26-man roster. Let's look at how the Cubs might deploy their hitters against left-handed pitching in 2024.

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs' regular lineup is firmly established, leaving Craig Counsell to determine the optimal batting order. This decision sparks heated debates among baseball fans, but several key data points and variables can guide Counsell in crafting the 2024 Chicago Cubs' lineup. Let's delve into each player's stats and rationale for their placement in the lineup, considering matchups, on-base percentage (OBP), speed, power, and production.

Against Left-Handed Starting Pitchers (LHP)

1. Nico Hoerner

• Matchup: Hoerner boasted a .306 batting average and a .756 OPS against LHP last season.
• OBP: His career OBP against lefties sits at .336, showing a steady improvement, reaching .344 last year.
• Speed: A threat on the basepaths, Hoerner's speed adds pressure from the leadoff position.
• Power: While he is not a power hitter against lefties, his ability to make contact sets the stage for the lineup.
• Production: Notching 130 total bases from the leadoff spot underscores his offensive impact.
• Conclusion: Hoerner's consistency and ability to set the tone make him invaluable at the top of the order.

2. Cody Bellinger 

• Matchup: Bellinger posted impressive numbers against lefties last season with a .337 BA and a .984 OPS.
• OBP: His .388 OBP from the second spot in 2023 solidifies his place as a top-of-the-order threat.
• Speed: A combination of power and speed, Bellinger's 20 stolen bases last season adds another dimension to his game.
• Power: He remains a significant power threat, with ten homers off lefties last year.
• Production: While data is limited in the two spot, Bellinger's track record as the team's best player justifies his place in the top three.
• Conclusion: Bellinger's prowess against left-handed pitching makes him an ideal candidate for the second spot, providing power and on-base skills.

3. Seiya Suzuki 

• Matchup: Suzuki boasted a .290 average and an .850 OPS against LHP, making him a formidable presence in the third spot.
• OBP: With a career .374 OBP against lefties, Suzuki consistently gets on base.
• Speed: Though not a base-stealing threat, his hitting ability compensates for his lack of speed.
• Power: While he hit only three homers against LHP last year, his power potential remains high.
• Production: Despite limited opportunities in the third spot, Suzuki's high average and OPS warrant consideration.
• Conclusion: Suzuki's ability to hit for average and get on base makes him well-suited for the third spot, providing consistency and setting the middle of the lineup.

4. Dansby Swanson   

• Matchup: Swanson holds a .255 average and a .759 OPS against lefties, showcasing his ability to produce against southpaws.
• OBP: With a .327 OBP against left-handed pitchers, Swanson maintains his value in the lineup.
• Speed: With nine stolen bases last year, he adds a modest speed element to the lineup.
• Power: Swanson's 22 homers last season highlight his potential to drive in runs from the cleanup spot.
• Production: Limited data in the fourth spot suggests an opportunity to capitalize on his power.
• Conclusion: Swanson's combination of power and hitting ability makes him a suitable candidate for the cleanup role, protecting the hitters behind him.

5. Ian Happ 

• Matchup: Happ owns a .244 BA with a .711 OPS against lefties, much more limited than against righties.
• OBP: Despite a modest OBP against lefties, his overall production warrants consideration.
• Speed: With 14 stolen bases last year, Happ adds a speed element to the lineup.
• Power: His 20 homers against lefties over his career demonstrate his power potential.
• Production: Happ's success batting fifth, with a .873 OPS and .361 OBP in 74 games, justifies his place in the lineup.
• Conclusion: While not a top-of-the-order hitter against lefties, Happ's overall production and power make him a valuable asset in the fifth spot.

6. Garrett Cooper/Patrick Wisdom 

• Matchup: Cooper and Wisdom excel against left-handed pitching, boasting impressive career averages and OPS. Cooper has a career .286 average with a .816 OPS, while Wisdom's average is .233 with a .813 OPS.
• OBP: Their ability to get on base against lefties adds depth to the bottom half of the lineup. Wisdom's OBP is .308, while Cooper's is .338.
• Speed: While lacking in stolen base potential, their hitting prowess compensates for their lack of speed.
• Power: They provide significant power potential with a combined 48 homers against left-handed pitching.
• Production: Their success in the sixth spot is notable. Cooper has a slash line of .281/.358/.458 there. Wisdom sits at .224/.285/.526.
• Conclusion: Cooper and Wisdom's consistency and power against lefties make them ideal candidates for the sixth spot, adding big power to the lineup's lower half.

7. Christopher Morel 

• Matchup: Morel has struggled against lefties, with a .219 average and a .754 OPS.
• OBP: His .306 OBP against lefties is below par.
• Speed: Not a base-stealing threat.
• Power: Morel's ten homers against LHP demonstrate his potential to drive in runs.
• Production: Despite his struggles, his solid performance in the seventh spot suggests an opportunity to contribute. In 32 games there, he hit .263 with a .818 OPS.
• Conclusion: Morel's overall power and production justify his place in the lineup despite his struggles against lefties.

8. Michael Busch  (Minor League Stats)

• Matchup: Busch impressed in the minors, boasting a .294 average and a .830 OPS against lefties.
• OBP: With a .401 OBP against LHP last season, his ability to get on base is impressive.
• Speed: While not a stolen base threat, his hitting ability compensates for his lack of speed.
• Power: Limited homer production against lefties suggests a focus on getting on base rather than power hitting.

• Production: There is insufficient data to suggest whether to bat him 8^th.

• Conclusion: While unproven at the major league level, Busch's impressive minor league numbers against lefties make him a compelling option for the bottom of the lineup.

9. Yan Gomes/Miguel Amaya 

• Matchup: Gomes boasts better numbers against lefties in his career, with a .279 BA and a .813 OPS. Amaya 250 BA and a .701 OPS.
• OBP: Both catchers provide modest OBP numbers against lefties, suggesting they belong in the bottom two spots.
• Speed: Neither catcher is known for their speed on the basepaths.
• Power: Gomes provides more power with 51 career homers against lefties than Amaya's 1.
• Production: Amaya's small sample size in the ninth spot does not factor into that decision. Gomes boasts 247/.326/.461 in 116 games.
• Conclusion: Both catchers provide depth to the lineup's bottom two spots, with Gomes' experience and power making him the preferred choice.

Analyzing each of the six categories outlined equips Craig Counsell and the Cubs with the necessary insights to navigate these challenging lineup decisions. While I acknowledge the fluid nature of roster construction, potential injuries, and other variables, these proposed lineups represent the most effective configurations for the 2024 Chicago Cubs.

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