Article: 2024 Prospect Previews: Josh Rivera

[Jamie Cameron]

With the 81st pick in the 2023 draft, the Cubs selected Josh Rivera, a shortstop out of Florida. Rivera was the best known senior player in the draft. What can Cubs fans expect from him in 2024? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

With their third-round selection (the 81st overall pick) in the 2023 MLB draft, the Chicago Cubs selected Josh Rivera, out of the University of Florida. Rivera was the 95th-ranked overall player on our consensus board, and added a senior sign to the Cubs draft haul after the team went over slot to sign Jaxson Wiggins with their second-round compensatory selection. What can Cubs fans expect from Rivera in 2024? Let’s dig in.

Scouting and Signing
Rivera was one of the best performing seniors in the 2023 draft class, and undoubtedly the most famous, leading the Florida Gators to an amazing run in the 2023 College World Series, where they fell to the national champion LSU Tigers.

Rivera took significant strides in every offensive category in his final season with the Gators. He posted a career-best triple slash (.348/.447/.617), and highs in home runs (19) and stolen bases (18), while being one of Florida’s unquestioned on- and off-field leaders.

An older prospect at 23, Rivera is a good athlete, at 6-foot-2 and 215 lbs. He doesn’t have the smoothest operation at the plate. It’s an aggressive, longer swing, but Rivera found the barrel much more consistently in his final collegiate season. It remains to be seen if his slightly unbalanced approach will compromise his ability to do damage as a professional.

Defensively, Rivera has the potential to stick at shortstop, with solid defensive actions. Despite having less explosiveness than one might want for the position, Rivera has solid range and at least an average arm that should give him a chance to stick it out, at least in the medium term.

2023 Performance and 2024 Outlook
After a lightning-quick start in Rookie ball (1.182 OPS in 3 games), Rivera spent his remaining 25 games at High-A South Bend, where he put together a credible .250/.320/.402 line, with a 25.2% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate. Rivera carried a severe platoon split in his miniscule collection of professional games, with a .674 OPS versus right-handed pitching and a whopping .983 versus lefthanders.

Rivera’s supplementary numbers will be interesting to track in 2024. He only managed a 66.8% contact rate at High A, a figure that would be concerning, but for the small sample size. We would do well to remember that Rivera played an inordinate amount of baseball in 2023 (70 college games alone), so we should reserve judgment until he gets a longer look.

I’d expect Rivera to start 2024 at South Bend. While he may adjust and find success, I’d argue that the contact rate and swing length are orange flags for future professional success. Given their limited resources in bonus pool allocation and picks, the Cubs took their big swing with Wiggins at 68th overall. If nothing else, though, Rivera is the kind of player who should set a good example and build bridges between teammates at whatever level of the minors he attains.

What did you think of the Josh Rivera pick? How far do you think he will progress in 2024? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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