Jim Callis Chat, 03-15-04

[Jim Callis]

Jim, I don't know what to think of Juan Cruz. Would it be in the Cubs' best interest to be patient with him? Is he still improving? Is his best hope and value in the pen? Or should he only start? Does it make sense to keep him starting in AAA? Or would it be better to trade him ASAP? Is his problem that he hasn't gotten a real chance? Or is his problem in his head? Or is he just too skinny? If the Cubs trade him, will he turn into the next Pedro?

 

I don't either. I still think he can be an above-average big league starter, though we may never see another Pedro Martinez. If you trade him now, you trade him at what might be well below his peak value. He needs consistent innings to improve his command. If I were the Cubs, I would have spent the Maddux money on a hitter and given Cruz the No. 5 starter spot.

[Jim Callis]

I guess any prospect is tradable in the right deal but who do you see as being close to “untouchable"? Also is there any hope for the prospect position players with Dusty as manager?

 

Angel Guzman would be the most untouchable, but if the Cubs could get a true impact hitter for him, they probably should consider it. They have so many pitchers, and the attrition rate is scary, that they can afford to trade some. It's hard to say on the position players, because the guy who has the best chance to be a difference-maker is Ryan Harvey, and he's probably three years away, at least.

[Jim Callis]

Jim, thanks for spending some time here to answer our (many and varied) questions. We all appreciate your time and knowledge.

 

Of the three outfielders, David Kelton, Nic Jackson, and Jason Dubois, who do project to make the biggest impact, and when? Also, along the same lines, do think Jackson's disappointing 2003 campaign is a sign that he's plateaued, or will he put it together?

 

Kelton and Dubois are similar hitters. Kelton is a better pure hitter, while Dubois gets on base more and has more power potential. Jackson can't match their power, but he's a center fielder. All three should be big league ready after 2004, if not during the year. In Jackson's defense, he hasn't been 100 percent very much since 2001, so I wouldn't judge him too harshly based on 2003.

[Jim Callis]

Any thoughts on Francis Beltran's struggles this spring? Is his arm tired after the Winter League? Did he really develop a nasty splitter or was that beatwriter hyperbole?

 

I heard good things about his splitter, too. He could be tired, but I wouldn't read too much into spring performance. He probably wasn't going to make the big league club anyway. Should be able to help out at some point this year.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

What teams that are likely to be sellers in July are most desperate for pitching prospects, and therefore good targets if and when the Cubs start looking for a bat?

 

Not to take the easy way out, but almost any team, contender or noncontender, never has enough pitching. And the Cubs have such quality pitching prospects that almost any team would be interested in what they have to offer. If the Cardinals drop out of the race, and were willing to trade with a division rival (which might not be smart on their part), I'd go hard after Edgar Renteria.

[Jim Callis]

How many people in the scouting business have a background in baseball as a player? Besides the "Moneyball" types, what other fields do scouts sometimes come from?

 

Oh, boy. I liked parts of "Moneyball," but you have to take that book with a grain of salt. Michael Lewis' thesis was that Billy Beane and the front office were light years ahead of everyone else, and the previous scouting department didn't get the credit they deserved. And Lewis overhyped their 2002 draft. But I digress.

 

Most scouts do have a playing background, and several may have coached or managed somewhere (high school to pros) at some point. But it's not a requirement. The Padres hired Josh Boyd away from BA to scout the mid-Atlantic, and he didn't play in college or as a pro.

[Jim Callis]

Hi Jim. Thanks for the chat.

 

What's your take on Ryan Fitzgerald? Understanding of course that it's difficult to gleen too much from rookie ball, his numbers were expecially good for such a young player at a skill position. His OBP and speed resemble Felix Pie while his power looks more like Corey Patterson.

 

He's more intriguing than most nondrafted free agents, but he was 22 and playing at the lowest level of pro ball. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from his statistics because he was four years too old for the league. He has a nice swing and 70 speed.

[Jim Callis]

Come time for the All-Star break and assuming the Cubs need to upgrade at SS, which top prospects would you be willing to give up and who would you give up to get Cabrera?

 

Another great trade target. If the Cubs could sign Cabrera long-term, he would be a huge upgrade. I'm not impressed with Omar Minaya's track record as a GM, so I'd try to get him to take a package of something like Nic Jackson, Todd Wellemeyer and Sergio Mitre. It would probably take more, but not much more based on Minaya's track record.

[Jim Callis]

For the next 3 years, the Cubs rotation figures to be set with Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, and Clement in '04 then Guzman in '05 and beyond (assuming the rehab goes well.) If the other highly rated pitching prospects continue to develop, could we be looking at a future bullpen that would include Brownlie, Blasko, and Ryu from the right side and Jones, Sisco, and Hagerty from the left?

 

Now I know, in all likelyhood, some will fade from their current status, but the status of some from the second tier (Petrick, Bay, Marshall, ect.) will surely rise. With this tremendous organizational depth of quality pitching existing in an era of heightened fiscal restraint, would Hendry ever consider constructing a bullpen made up entirely of young, homegrown prospects?

 

Before you answer, let me explain my line of reasoning--it may not be as radical as it seems.

1) With starters of this caliber, the bullpen should be able to absorb 2 rookie additions per year.

2) It could free up a big chunk of the budget in order to address longstanding, longterm needs at SS, C, 2B, and LF. Our position prospects, with 2 exceptions (Harvey and Pie) are decidedly pedestrian. 3) While bullpens are traditionally the domain of battle tested veterans, that young bullpen I propose would be awfully talented, well balanced (3 lefties, 3 righties) and versatile (all have the stuff and pitches for long and short work.) Once they settled into their roles, they could be an effective, low cost alternative to the millionaire, veteran stiffs that make up the majority of MLB bullpens. And would be no more inconsistent than the typical, creaky MLB bullpen.

4) Dusty would swollow his toothpick at the thought of such a bullpen.

 

O.K. Jim, now proceed with your attack. Thanks.

 

No attack. But I would say that all of those guys in the Top 10 aren't going to make it, and the Cubs might be better served trading the excess for above-average hitters rather than loading up their bullpen and spending on free agents.

[Jim Callis]

Within the past year the Cubs traded both Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi to get immediate offensive help. Which player, if either, do you think the Cubs are most likely to regret trading?

 

Neither. I think Choi will be better, but they got a very, very good guy at the same position who can help them a lot more now in Derrek Lee. I still have hopes for Hill, but it's not hard envisioning him flaming out again. He blew his chances with the Cubs.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

The Cubs have amassed a collection of catchers from whom a real prospect could emerge. Rick, Richie and Fox are all high draft picks from the last few years. Geovanny Soto was an FSL all-star last year at a very young age for the league. Jose Reyes seems to have some promise. Casey McGehee is being converted to catcher and showed promise with the bat last year (at least the bat was promising as a catcher). Yoon-Min Kweon comes back from injury this year to try and get back on track. All of these guys would normally project to fill spots in Lansing or Daytona. Heck, even Alberto Garcia played a bit of catcher in the Rookie League and showed enough bat to head to Lansing.

 

I know you like Richie's toolset and have picked him to emerge from this grouping, but how do you see the Cubs allocating playing time to all these guys at the various levels and how would you set a "depth chart" of catching prospects for the Cubs?

 

For all their efforts, the Cubs are still weak at catcher. I still like Richie the best. If everyone is healthy, I would guess that Fox and Soto would be at Daytona, Richie and Reyes at Lansing.

[Jim Callis]

I'm running out of steam a little bit and I can't make it through all the questions, so I'm going to lightning-round it (terse answers) and pick and choose the questions rather than just taking them in order . . .

[Jim Callis]

Jim, after years of big-time draft spending (Prior, Corey, Harvey, Montanez, Brownlie and all the comp picks in 02..), the Cubs face their first low-pick/short-a-pick draft in years. Do you have any inside info whether the cubs will spend more aggressively in other arenas? 1) Any hints of whether they’ll get involved in Asia again? 2) Perhaps spend more aggressively in Latin America? 3) Just do a lot more superslotting in the regular draft? Any insights based on comments by Cub management or from your industry sources?

 

Craig Jasperse, Fargo ND

 

I think the most likely thing would be to take chances on guys who fall because of signability or whatever, a la Bobby Brownlie.

[Jim Callis]

After Brendan Harris, the Cubs seem to be lacking severely in middle IF prospects. Coats has shown the patience, Montanez has the pedigree, Cedeno has the upside, but all have struggled defensively and with the bat.......who, if any, of those 3 do you see getting closest to becoming a major leaguer? Will any make an impact?

 

Probably Coats, though the Cubs are relatively high on Cedeno. I don't see any of them as frontline big leaguers.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

Another question on the lefties: I've seen comments that Marshall has a similar upside to Andy Sisco. Given that Marshall already seems more refined than Sisco, is it a matter of Marshall reaching the projection on velocity that is keeping him so far down below Andy on the prospect charts?

 

Sisco is four inches taller, throws 5 mph harder and is six months younger, and he's proven himself at a higher level.

[Jim Callis]

I'm probably lower on Felix Sanchez than just about anyone since I've never seen his breaking ball be more than a slightly below average pitch. He seems to struggle, at least partially, because of immaturity - both mentally and as it relates to his mechanics. Is there any reason to think that maturity (or experience) might improve his slider, or is he simply too raw to refine it into anything more than an average pitch?

 

You sound exactly like one of my best Cubs sources, who says much the same things about Sanchez and notes that pitchers rarely improve their breaking ball by more than a grade (such as 40 to 50).

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

In terms of scouting a player and projecting his tools, in the perpectual stats vs. tools debate, it appears that the numbers side takes "park effects" into greater consideration than their counterpart. I was wondering since the Cubs play in some severe hitter and pitcher leagues (PCL/SL), (in your opinion) how much impact do League park effects impact the charting of tools (especially offensively)?

 

I'll use this question to clear up a misconception, not that UK is necessarily perpetuating it. BA balances stats and tools. We're not all tools. We understand the importance of performance, and I weigh performance more heavily than tools, especially among upper-level players. And yes, I take park factors into account (and scouts do, too). I would note that while West Tenn is a pitcher's park, Iowa is not a hitter's haven and is one of the better pitcher's parks in the PCL, so there isn't a lot of PCL inflation in the Iowa stats (not nearly as much as with the traditional PCL clubs).

[Jim Callis]

Jim, love the Prospects Book! Thanks.

 

I was very surprised by the comment, “Though he has a ways to go to reach his ceiling, Marshall has similar upside to Andy Sisco.” Other than being tall lefties and being the same age (Marshall a couple months older), they strike me as opposites: Marshall skinny, soft-tosser, mature, good control, curveball guy; Sisco big, power guy, immature, kinda wild, slider/splitter guy. Most of us assume a limitless physical ceiling for Sisco, but figure for Marshall a college lefty who lasts till round 6 must have significant physical limitations. Could you elaborate on what’s similar about their upsides? And what’s the projection for Marshall in terms of fastball?

 

Craig Jasperse, Fargo ND

 

 

Sean Marshall: more like Lance Dickson, Phil Norton or Mark Freed? Follow-up: who has the better deuce: Marshall or Darin Downs?

 

Downs on the curveball.

 

Craig, Marshall has a high ceiling because he's a very projectable lefty with life on his fastball, and a better breaking ball, changeup and command than Sisco. But Sisco has a better chance of reaching his ceiling than Marshall does, if that makes any sense. Marshall could, and I emphasize "could" be a guy who pitches at 92-94 regularly, which is where Sisco is now. And while Sisco is younger, he's only six months younger. I'm not saying that Marshall is as good as Sisco or will be as good as Sisco, but he could be as good. Hence, his ceiling is similar.

[Jim Callis]

Ben Christensen, Steve Smyth, and Scott Chiasson all seem to have regressed due to injuries. Do you think any of them have realistic chances of recovering and becoming decent major leaguers?

 

Nope.

[Jim Callis]

Jim,

 

West Tenn's rotation should be outstanding, with more top prospects than rotation slots. Brownlie, Blasko, Ryu and Nolasco should be virtually guaranteed of slots if they are all healthy when the bell rings. That leaves Pinto and Pignatiello (at the least) fighting for the last rotation slot. Who do you see getting that rotation spot and why?

 

Pinto, because he's easier to project as a big league starter. But these things usually have a way of working themselves out.

[Jim Callis]

My condensed, paraphased scouting report of Chadd Blasko:

Easy fastball topping out at 96 MPH with sudden late diving action. His large, slow curve that drops in the zone, has become a second plus pitch. An improving slider and change. Still uses split from college days on occasion. Commands both sides of the plate. Unorthodox delivery, hides ball well. Great size and good pitchers body. Should be an innings eater.

 

You have repeatedly referred to his ceiling as that of a No. 3 starter. Yet, the dominance of his debut year and your own criteria for rating pitchers based on number of plus pitches and command of pitches hint at an even higher ceiling. Outside of not having been drafted in the first round, what does he lack that the prospects rated as potential No. 1's and No. 2's possess. Thanks

 

Well, he was a first-round pick (supplemental). I tend to label guys as No. 3 starters, perhaps too easily, but I don't remember doing that with Blakso. His ceiling is as a No. 2, though it's safer to project him as a No. 3.

[Jim Callis]

Health played a major role in limiting the Cubs minor league pitching last year. If Guzman's shoulder were sound, Jones arm not tired, Brownlie not worn out and Sisco's hand not broken - how much higher would these guys have ranked in the top 100 prospects?

 

Hmmm. Guzman (No. 26) would have been in the low teens. Jones (No. 57), maybe about 10 spots higher. Brownlie, had he been at full strength and spent six weeks in Double-A, could have been much higher than No. 92. He should be right with Jeremy Guthrie (No. 53 if I remember correctly). Sisco's broken hand wasn't much of a factor. He needs to improve his secondary pitches and command to move up from No. 77.

[Jim Callis]

Carlos Marmol led the Arizona League in K’s, but is obviously very raw. What kind of scouting report can you give us on him, and in the unlikely event that he stays healthy and gets control of his stuff, how good could he become?

 

Craig Jasperse, Fargo ND

 

94-96 mph fastball, plus slider at times, very raw, command will be the key. Could be a No. 2 if everything comes together, but that will take a lot of refinement and consistency.

[Jim Callis]

Of the three Arizona League pitchers, Darin Downs, Carlos Marmol and Bear Bay, which one would you rate highest longerm?

 

Downs. Very nice curve, very nice pitchability, could really take off with the shoulder tendinitis behind him.

[Jim Callis]

Pending Clement, there will likely be a rotation opening next off-season. (Or more, pending injuries…) Guzman and Cruz are obvious candidates. Of Blasko, Brownlie, etc., who is most likely to be both promising enough and advanced enough by end of 04 to compete for an April 05 rotation opening? I’m not asking about best long-term potential; I’m asking specifically about best chance to actually be ready by April 05.

 

Craig Jasperse, Fargo ND

 

Bobby Brownlie. I think he could really make huge strides this year.