I totally hate and despise Ryan Braun, but this is awesome.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, you DO realize that no two players are exactly alike, right? Yes, Prince is likely bigger than his dad (he's also better, too). There are also players bigger than Cecil who had careers longer than him. Pointing to his dad like it's proof he'll be done early is asinine and self-defeating.

 

And I'm sorry, but if anyone here is actually proposing that the Cubs shouldn't go after Fielder if Pujols isn't available, well, then they need to GTFO.

[Backtobanks]

Fielder would be 28 next season. Soriano was 31 when the Cubs signed him. Fielder is also much better at baseball than Soriano. I'm not sure why you think a 27-year-old only has "2-3 great years" left in him.

I think his fitness level makes it a fair concern. Once he's over the hill and declining, he could go from great to worthless in a much shorter time frame than most other elite sluggers would.

 

At the end of the '96 season, Cecil Fielder turned 33. He played in 160 games that year, hit 39 HR, and OPS'd .834. By the time he was 35, he was done with baseball. (Granted, I don't know anything about any injuries.) I'm not saying that Prince is condemned to the same progression at the same age, but I think he'll see a similar rate of decline whenever that decline starts.

 

2-3 more great years for Prince is almost a guarantee. Another 2 to 3 is definitely very possible, but not necessarily a given, and anything past that is anyone's guess.

 

Signing someone like Fielder to a 6-year-deal is nowhere near being in the same ballpark as Soriano's contract unless he just completely breaks down very early into his career. Hell, even an 8-year-contract wouldn't be the end of the world given the projected level of production and that he'd still be 36 at the end of it, though I really don't think he's going to get that many years. 6 years is probably what he'll end up with at the most, largely due to his weight, and the Cubs would be foolish to not go all in since they opted not to sign Dunn and if Pujols isn't available. Opting not to sign him to such a deal because he's fat and might suck for the last year when they have zilch on the horizon when it comes to someone manning 1B would be just yet another example of poor front office management by the Cubs.

 

Come on, him playing excellent baseball between ages 28-30 is only "very possible?"

 

I think you're dreaming if you think Fielder will end up with only 6 years. Whatever teams are bidding $300 million/10 years for Pujols aren't going to take a chance on losing out on both of them. Also, Fielder realizes that a 6-yr. contract will probably kill any chances of another big contract.

[CubmanPi]

OK, you DO realize that no two players are exactly alike, right? Yes, Prince is likely bigger than his dad (he's also better, too). There are also players bigger than Cecil who had careers longer than him. Pointing to his dad like it's proof he'll be done early is asinine and self-defeating.

 

And I'm sorry, but if anyone here is actually proposing that the Cubs shouldn't go after Fielder if Pujols isn't available, well, then they need to GTFO.

They should definitely go after him, especially if Pujols is taken, but I think 8 years is risk enough, and anything more is putting the contract in Soriano territory in terms of likelihood that he'll be performing with any value in the twilight of his contract. The superior production in the years before getting to that point makes that an acceptable downside to any deal, but 6 or 7 years would definitely be much more preferable.

 

To un-jack the thread, Ryan Braun is a megadouche, amirite?

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, you DO realize that no two players are exactly alike, right? Yes, Prince is likely bigger than his dad (he's also better, too). There are also players bigger than Cecil who had careers longer than him. Pointing to his dad like it's proof he'll be done early is asinine and self-defeating.

 

And I'm sorry, but if anyone here is actually proposing that the Cubs shouldn't go after Fielder if Pujols isn't available, well, then they need to GTFO.

They should definitely go after him, especially if Pujols is taken, but I think 8 years is risk enough, and anything more is putting the contract in Soriano territory in terms of likelihood that he'll be performing with any value in the twilight of his contract. The superior production in the years before getting to that point makes that an acceptable downside to any deal, but 6 or 7 years would definitely be much more preferable.

 

Preferable, but it can't be a deal-breaker. He's not getting 10, but if the deal can't be done without giving him 8 and there's no Pujols, then they better [expletive] give him 8. Letting him slide because of 2 years would be a complete [expletive] up.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think you're dreaming if you think Fielder will end up with only 6 years. Whatever teams are bidding $300 million/10 years for Pujols aren't going to take a chance on losing out on both of them. Also, Fielder realizes that a 6-yr. contract will probably kill any chances of another big contract.

 

Depends on what's being offered. I agree about his weight in the sense that I think it will be on teams' minds when they're looking to sign him. As good as he is, he simply doesn't have the rep of Pujols and as such whatever Pujols' ends up with isn't necessarily setting the table for Fielder's new deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fielder ending up with 8-years'-worth of money in a 6-year-deal. I also wouldn't be surprised if he does actually end up with 8 years. Either way, if he's the top guy to sign out there then the Cubs need to land him, period.

[Northside Blues]

OK, you DO realize that no two players are exactly alike, right? Yes, Prince is likely bigger than his dad (he's also better, too). There are also players bigger than Cecil who had careers longer than him. Pointing to his dad like it's proof he'll be done early is asinine and self-defeating.

 

And I'm sorry, but if anyone here is actually proposing that the Cubs shouldn't go after Fielder if Pujols isn't available, well, then they need to GTFO.

 

 

it stands good reason to believe that he's going to age most like the guy that shares the most DNA with him. if you dont like that:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hafnetr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gentiji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cansejo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hrbekke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fullmbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisgl01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorrepa01.shtml

[Sammy Sofa]

Wow. Are you seriously arguing that the Cubs shouldn't sign Prince Fielder if he's the best FA option out there because there have been ballplayers over the history of baseball that have become less effective or retired once they get past 30? I'm guess that's what you're arguing, because I have no idea what other pattern or trend we're supposed to gather from that random collection of players. If that is what you're arguing, it's a really, really dumb argument.

[bcl412]

Barrel chested power hitters scare the crap out of me in terms of longevity. Not that I wouldn't love Prince as a Cub but I'd be very concerned about how long he'd last. Then again, Pujols would be old as hell too at the end of any contract he'd sign here. I suppose that's the risk of signing free agents.

[TruffleShuffle]

Wow. Are you seriously arguing that the Cubs shouldn't sign Prince Fielder if he's the best FA option out there because there have been ballplayers over the history of baseball that have become less effective or retired once they get past 30? I'm guess that's what you're arguing, because I have no idea what other pattern or trend we're supposed to gather from that random collection of players. If that is what you're arguing, it's a really, really dumb argument.

 

i think what he's saying is that the cubs should never sign a free agent to a long-term contract.

[Guest]

Bad bodied players do not have the best aging curve, that's not really up for debate. I certainly don't see giving Fielder 8 years as a very prudent idea. It's not like he can be hid any further on the defensive spectrum, and his value is 110% tied to his bat. Giving Fielder something stupid like 8/175 just because Pujols wouldn't come would be a horrific decision. I'd rather they make a mediocre short term decision than repeat their own mistakes with free agent contracts for the umpteenth time.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wow. Are you seriously arguing that the Cubs shouldn't sign Prince Fielder if he's the best FA option out there because there have been ballplayers over the history of baseball that have become less effective or retired once they get past 30? I'm guess that's what you're arguing, because I have no idea what other pattern or trend we're supposed to gather from that random collection of players. If that is what you're arguing, it's a really, really dumb argument.

 

i think what he's saying is that the cubs should never sign a free agent to a long-term contract.

 

Apparently, because I can't imagine he'd want Ol' Man Pujols either. If I was a betting man I'd say he's the type that would rather just do something like putting Colvin there instead of "wasting money."

[Sammy Sofa]

Bad bodied players do not have the best aging curve, that's not really up for debate. I certainly don't see giving Fielder 8 years as a very prudent idea. It's not like he can be hid any further on the defensive spectrum, and his value is 110% tied to his bat. Giving Fielder something stupid like 8/175 just because Pujols wouldn't come would be a horrific decision. I'd rather they make a mediocre short term decision than repeat their own mistakes with free agent contracts for the umpteenth time.

 

[expletive]. How many times have they made such a "mistake?" Signing a player of that caliber and impact? Even just implying that it would be along the lines of overpaying for someone like Soriano is ludicrous. Yes, of course, there's obvious risk with someone of his body type, but sometimes you have to absolutely take that risk when the reward is also so very high and the team needs someone like him so badly.

 

I'm sorry, but it infuriates me to watch them let guys like Dunn and potentially Fielder pass them by just to settle on a Pena-like decision time and time again. Yes, I agree that ideally you don't want to give him 8 years, and I'd prefer if they didn't give him more than 6, but I just don't want to see them taking the halfassed route yet again if the years are the sticking point. Either overwhelm with a longer contract's worth of money in fewer years or give him the years if that's what it take. Don't drop the ball yet again. This isn't Soriano.

[MWV]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hafnetr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gentiji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cansejo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hrbekke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fullmbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisgl01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorrepa01.shtml

 

Perhaps this is a non-sequitur, but thus far Prince has been remarkably durable/consistent by comparison to those listed above. In Fielder's first 5 full seasons, he's appeared in no fewer than 157 games, playing all 162 in 2009. Of the guys listed, only 3 (Canseco at ages 21-23, Hrbek at age 25 and Davis at ages 25 and 28) ever appeared in 157+ games in any of their first 5 full seasons (6 total out of 45 seasons), and none in more than 159 games.

Edited April 12, 2011 by MWV

[Guest]

Bad bodied players do not have the best aging curve, that's not really up for debate. I certainly don't see giving Fielder 8 years as a very prudent idea. It's not like he can be hid any further on the defensive spectrum, and his value is 110% tied to his bat. Giving Fielder something stupid like 8/175 just because Pujols wouldn't come would be a horrific decision. I'd rather they make a mediocre short term decision than repeat their own mistakes with free agent contracts for the umpteenth time.

 

[expletive]. How many times have they made such a "mistake?" Signing a player of that caliber and impact? Even just implying that it would be along the lines of overpaying for someone like Soriano is ludicrous. Yes, of course, there's obvious risk with someone of his body type, but sometimes you have to absolutely take that risk when the reward is also so very high and the team needs someone like him so badly.

 

I'm sorry, but it infuriates me to watch them let guys like Dunn and potentially Fielder pass them by just to settle on a Pena-like decision time and time again. Yes, I agree that ideally you don't want to give him 8 years, and I'd prefer if they didn't give him more than 6, but I just don't want to see them taking the halfassed route yet again if the years are the sticking point. Either overwhelm with a longer contract's worth of money in fewer years or give him the years if that's what it take. Don't drop the ball yet again. This isn't Soriano.

 

 

Soriano and Zambrano are the two obvious examples of going way too long in contract length.

 

You're really romanticizing Fielder a bit here. He's a very good hitter, but he's been inconsistent, varying between a sub-3 WAR and a 6-plus WAR the last 4 seasons. He doesn't offer any defensive value, and he's bad bodied which makes a long term deal even more risky. He's not someone to avoid at all costs, but he's not the elite talent you're making him out to be where you cross the threshold of a reasonable FA deal just to add a player of his caliber to the roster. Players capable of putting up the average Prince Fielder (circa 2012 and beyond) are not as uncommon as you're implying. And that goes double for Dunn.

[Sammy Sofa]

So who else is out there?

 

And yeah, maybe I am overrating him. The Cubs still need him. I'm tired of them settling and then making up for it with bad signings. If you want an impact FA odds are you're going to have to overpay for them, and just once I'd like to see them overpay for a Prince Fielder.

[TruffleShuffle]

So who else is out there?

 

And yeah, maybe I am overrating him. The Cubs still need him. I'm tired of them settling and then making up for it with bad signings. If you want an impact FA odds are you're going to have to overpay for them, and just once I'd like to see them overpay for a Prince Fielder.

 

that is pretty much the same rationalization they used to sign soriano to a bad contract.

 

i'd like to see them overpay for an albert pujols, not for a prince fielder.

[Guest]

Pujols, first and foremost. After that, you're going after Fielder or Gonzalez at a reasonable price. After that, there's a lot of options that probably aren't long term solutions, but they're much less expensive in dollars and years. Guys like Pena or Butler. Moving Colvin there so you have an OF spot for an impact bat, or salary for an impact player somewhere besides 1B. Like I said before, I'd rather have a sub-optimal solution that doesn't hamstring the long term. You can use the dollars better in free agency, and/or you can use it to leverage those assets in trade too.

[Sammy Sofa]

Pujols, first and foremost. After that, you're going after Fielder or Gonzalez at a reasonable price. After that, there's a lot of options that probably aren't long term solutions, but they're much less expensive in dollars and years. Guys like Pena or Butler. Moving Colvin there so you have an OF spot for an impact bat, or salary for an impact player somewhere besides 1B. Like I said before, I'd rather have a sub-optimal solution that doesn't hamstring the long term. You can use the dollars better in free agency, and/or you can use it to leverage those assets in trade too.

 

Obviously I'm talking about this with the idea that Pujols isn't available, as I have made clear several times already. I'd also prefer Gonzalez over Fielder, but I really don't see the Red Sox letting him get away, which is why I hadn't brought him up. That said, I hope I'm wrong and I hope the Cubs are front and center to snatch him up if Pujols isn't out there.

 

I appreciate your opinions, but I really don't think signing a 28-year-old Fielder for 6 years is going to truly hamstring the team and I really don't think he's going to get more than 6 years. I'm just tired of these "patch solutions" that rarely ever work out for this team. It seems like they're continually setting up for a big move that never comes. Is Fielder the optimum signing? Maybe not, but you could easily talk anyone out of Pujols at this point given his age and cost, too. At some point it just seems like everyone, both the fans and the Cubs, are talking themselves out of a big signing that can really help the team just because it isn't THE very best signing possible. The Cubs are a big market team and can afford to eat a year or two of an overpaid Prince Fielder down the line so long as they're not in the situation they're in now.

[Sammy Sofa]

So who else is out there?

 

And yeah, maybe I am overrating him. The Cubs still need him. I'm tired of them settling and then making up for it with bad signings. If you want an impact FA odds are you're going to have to overpay for them, and just once I'd like to see them overpay for a Prince Fielder.

 

that is pretty much the same rationalization they used to sign soriano to a bad contract.

 

i'd like to see them overpay for an albert pujols, not for a prince fielder.

 

So would I, as I've made very clear time and time again.

 

And dropping bringing up Soriano like that refutes what I've been saying...how? We're talking about two very different players here. It's not like Soriano automatically invalidates any other big contract they'd give out. I'm obviously not the type to advocate signing a player like Soriano just because he's there.

[Guest]

Well I never said that signing Fielder for 6 years was a bad idea. It might be on the edge of being a bad idea depending on the dollars, but I'm responding to your "if you have to go to 8 then you do it because he's Prince Fielder" point. If Fielder wants 6/135, I'd probably grit my teeth because of the risk and because I don't particularly like him, but that wouldn't be a huge mistake.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well I never said that signing Fielder for 6 years was a bad idea. It might be on the edge of being a bad idea depending on the dollars, but I'm responding to your "if you have to go to 8 then you do it because he's Prince Fielder" point. If Fielder wants 6/135, I'd probably grit my teeth because of the risk and because I don't particularly like him, but that wouldn't be a huge mistake.

 

But I've also repeatedly stated I don't think he's going to get 8 years, especially not from the Cubs. Yes, *I* would give him 8 years if it was the sticking point and both Gonzalez and Pujols weren't available. I'm not propping myself up as the perfect GM, so that could very well be a mistake, but ultimately I wouldn't be losing sleep over it. Yeah, I agree Prince has been inconsistent in the last 4 years, but I'd be willing to take the chance given his age and the "prime years" he's entering out of the hopes he'd settle in the middle of those 1.000+ OPS highs and .870-ish lows.

[Northside Blues]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hafnetr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gentiji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cansejo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hrbekke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fullmbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisgl01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorrepa01.shtml

 

Perhaps this is a non-sequitur, but thus far Prince has been remarkably durable/consistent by comparison to those listed above. In Fielder's first 5 full seasons, he's appeared in no fewer than 157 games, playing all 162 in 2009. Of the guys listed, only 3 (Canseco at ages 21-23, Hrbek at age 25 and Davis at ages 25 and 28) ever appeared in 157+ games in any of their first 5 full seasons (6 total out of 45 seasons), and none in more than 159 games.

 

I merely picked guys off his Baseball-Ref comps. Nothing more than that. I really don't have a preference either way. However I would advise the Cubs not to go for more than 5 years. If he wants 6 or 7 only do it for a lower annual pay, or at the very least make year 6 or 7 a vesting option based on performances in years 5 and 6, respectively.

 

I'd much rather give him 125 mil over 5 years than 160 mil over 8.

[MWV]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hafnetr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gentiji01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cansejo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hrbekke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fullmbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisgl01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sorrepa01.shtml

 

Perhaps this is a non-sequitur, but thus far Prince has been remarkably durable/consistent by comparison to those listed above. In Fielder's first 5 full seasons, he's appeared in no fewer than 157 games, playing all 162 in 2009. Of the guys listed, only 3 (Canseco at ages 21-23, Hrbek at age 25 and Davis at ages 25 and 28) ever appeared in 157+ games in any of their first 5 full seasons (6 total out of 45 seasons), and none in more than 159 games.

 

I merely picked guys off his Baseball-Ref comps. Nothing more than that. I really don't have a preference either way. However I would advise the Cubs not to go for more than 5 years. If he wants 6 or 7 only do it for a lower annual pay, or at the very least make year 6 or 7 a vesting option based on performances in years 5 and 6, respectively.

 

I'd much rather give him 125 mil over 5 years than 160 mil over 8.

I assumed as much. I just find it interesting how few games he's missed given his physical make-up.

I am also ambivalent towards a Fielder signing.

[inari]

Wrong thread!

[Schwarber Fan]

So, uh... Ryan Braun