Optimism vs. Pessimism

[TruffleShuffle]

aren't there a few more reasons to be optimistic, like "cubs have best record in national league" and "cubs have best team on paper in national league" and "the rest of the national league isn't especially good."

 

The Tigers were a pretty good team on paper. How that work out?

 

are the tigers 30 games over .500? my God.

[TruffleShuffle]

Bottom line is that pitching wins baseball games, and guess what we are losing?

 

baseball prospectus found that three major components to winning in the playoffs are:

 

* A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.

* A good closer, as measured by WXRL.

* A good defense, as measured by FRAA.

 

zambrano isn't a strikeout pitcher any more, so if he's lost it's not the end of the world. harden, lilly and dempster all strike out more guys, and marmol and wood have very good k-rates.

 

kerry wood has been excellent this year, contrary to what budhouse might believe.

 

while FRAA kinda sucks - the cubs' defense has ranked among the best in baseball in defensive efficiency all year.

 

 

so if zambrano were to miss the playoffs, are the cubs sunk? hardly.