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Runs predicted site

Pushfrog98

By Pushfrog98,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Pushfrog98 ACL Cubs

Pushfrog98

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
A while ago I stumbled upon a site that you could enter a lineup and it would tell you the predicted runs for the season and stuff like that... however... I can't remember where it is or what it's called or what stats it uses... can someone help me?

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David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
yeah, but none of the lineups have the pitcher batting ninth...not making it very realistic

 

Well, the idea is for it to find the optimal lineup. Not the optimal lineup within the constraints of pointless conventional baseball wisdom... The only reason it's not "realistic" is because it's hard to see any manager going outside of that box of old school thinking. 99% of managers are just going to automatically put the pitcher in the 9th spot because that's what (just about) everyone else has always done.

sneakypower South Bend Cubs

sneakypower

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Cubs were done...

 

I find it funny that for the best lineup to take place, Theriot is batting 9 for all of them... although, that could prove that LaRussa isn't all that much of a nutcase by batting the pitcher 8th.

prove?

Well, the idea is for it to find the optimal lineup. Not the optimal lineup within the constraints of pointless conventional baseball wisdom... The only reason it's not "realistic" is because it's hard to see any manager going outside of that box of old school thinking. 99% of managers are just going to automatically put the pitcher in the 9th spot because that's what (just about) everyone else has always done.

i wish you graded my homework. "it's got numbers, well i'm convinced!" this tool is fun for discussion and comparison, but it's so divorced from reality that you shouldn't put too much stock in it's accuracy. last year's results had brad ausmus batting leadoff. good idea, give one of the awful-est hitters in the entire sport 140 more PAs.

 

i know its en vogue for us to think conventional wisdom is always wrong, but imagine hitting your run producers at the top of the order, burying your speedy on base types at the end, giving your pitchers more ABs, and various other types of backwards strategies. you'll have managers asking players to do things diametrically different than they have the previous 10-20 years of their career and you'll breed a team of malcontents as a bonus to reduced offensive production.

 

and don't the other sabermetric studies argue a minimal impact from the lineup order? this has a 100+ runs difference impact based on the batting order for the Cubs example.

Vanilla Ice South Bend Cubs

Vanilla Ice

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Cubs were done...

 

I find it funny that for the best lineup to take place, Theriot is batting 9 for all of them... although, that could prove that LaRussa isn't all that much of a nutcase by batting the pitcher 8th.

prove?

Well, the idea is for it to find the optimal lineup. Not the optimal lineup within the constraints of pointless conventional baseball wisdom... The only reason it's not "realistic" is because it's hard to see any manager going outside of that box of old school thinking. 99% of managers are just going to automatically put the pitcher in the 9th spot because that's what (just about) everyone else has always done.

i wish you graded my homework. "it's got numbers, well i'm convinced!" this tool is fun for discussion and comparison, but it's so divorced from reality that you shouldn't put too much stock in it's accuracy. last year's results had brad ausmus batting leadoff. good idea, give one of the awful-est hitters in the entire sport 140 more PAs.

 

i know its en vogue for us to think conventional wisdom is always wrong, but imagine hitting your run producers at the top of the order, burying your speedy on base types at the end, giving your pitchers more ABs, and various other types of backwards strategies. you'll have managers asking players to do things diametrically different than they have the previous 10-20 years of their career and you'll breed a team of malcontents as a bonus to reduced offensive production.

 

and don't the other sabermetric studies argue a minimal impact from the lineup order? this has a 100+ runs difference impact based on the batting order for the Cubs example.

 

I won't even bother.

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Cubs were done...

 

I find it funny that for the best lineup to take place, Theriot is batting 9 for all of them... although, that could prove that LaRussa isn't all that much of a nutcase by batting the pitcher 8th.

prove?

Well, the idea is for it to find the optimal lineup. Not the optimal lineup within the constraints of pointless conventional baseball wisdom... The only reason it's not "realistic" is because it's hard to see any manager going outside of that box of old school thinking. 99% of managers are just going to automatically put the pitcher in the 9th spot because that's what (just about) everyone else has always done.

i wish you graded my homework. "it's got numbers, well i'm convinced!" this tool is fun for discussion and comparison, but it's so divorced from reality that you shouldn't put too much stock in it's accuracy. last year's results had brad ausmus batting leadoff. good idea, give one of the awful-est hitters in the entire sport 140 more PAs.

 

i know its en vogue for us to think conventional wisdom is always wrong, but imagine hitting your run producers at the top of the order, burying your speedy on base types at the end, giving your pitchers more ABs, and various other types of backwards strategies. you'll have managers asking players to do things diametrically different than they have the previous 10-20 years of their career and you'll breed a team of malcontents as a bonus to reduced offensive production.

 

and don't the other sabermetric studies argue a minimal impact from the lineup order? this has a 100+ runs difference impact based on the batting order for the Cubs example.

 

I'm not sure how any of this is a response to what I posted or how you could take what I posted as an endorsement of the validity of the tool. I'm not going to bother much responding to this post either except to ask if you realize the max run differential is between the extreme worst possible lineup against the extreme best possible lineup (which should be pretty obvious)?

 

When lineup order is talked about or dismissed as making little to no difference, it should be understood that you're speaking within reason and you're not talking about having your absolute worst hitters at the top of the order and your best hitters at the bottom vs. the opposite...

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