What is the proper approach to pitching resources?

[Lefty]

I posted this in another thread, but it's flatlined. Always interested in a broad discussion.

 

Most people (not on this board of course) misunderstood the message of Moneyball. It was about efficient use of resources, getting value for your money. With the amount of money going to some very pedestrian starting pitchers, I wonder what an appropriate response by a smart team would be.

 

First of all, spend your money on offense. J.D. Drew at 3/45 is preferable to Zito at 6/90. They're both are around 40-60 VORP. This includes Drew's tendency to miss some games. Pitchers have greater injury issues in general than position players and their performances are more highly variable.

 

So who pitches? Let's look at the Cubs. We mention all the guys who might help; Miller, Marshall, Cotts, Prior etc. But if creativity is required, what would be a totally new approach? Wood says he can't start, but is relieving 2 out of 3 days really better? How about tandem starting Marshall and Wood every 4 or 5 days. Hard throwing righty for 60 pitches, then soft-tossing lefty for a few innings. I suspect that the 100 innings Wood pitches in this scenario is easier on the arm than the 80 IP he might get in the bullpen.

 

If Prior is healthy, great. Same goes for Miller though I am not a believer. But we have good bullpen arms. If Wood/Marshall goes nine, how about reliever day before a day off or before Zambrano. I can hear the whining about "roles," but you could plan it a week in advance so every starter, and even a couple of relievers would know when they were going and what was expected of them. And pitchers are usually more effective as relievers. So all the marginal guys we'd be trotting out might be slightly more effective.

 

Finally, our replacement pitchers of last year were costing us 1 to 1.3 runs per game. The problem was that we had 3 or 4 such pitchers in the rotation all year. For each slot that's about 2 or 3 wins a year. But better utilization might shave a few runs off of that. If we have 2 such spots, and that's probably where we are now, Lugo over Cedeno/Izturis/Perez makes that up. So if the Cubs continue to add bats strategically, and Floyd over Murton probably does not qualify, not signing any pitchers appears to be a rational response. As such, expect Jason Schmidt to sign next week.

[TruffleShuffle]

It is important to allocate resources well, but the Cubs' rotation was just so bad last year. I want someone I can rely on, who can go deep into games. The young guys weren't doing that last year, with the exception of Hill toward the end of the season. So you'd end up with Glendon Rusch or whoever your crappy long reliever is coming into games and also getting drilled.

 

Having too many inconsistent and unreliable pitchers in your rotation really can be crippling. I can live with this offense if the Cubs go out and grab two more starters. Your points make some sense - they seem well thought out and rational - but I just don't think I agree with them.

[NoDak]

I too really like broad discussions. I remember years ago before NSBB when lots of these people were posting on the cubs.com message board a similar idea came up.

 

The problem I have with the plan of using Wood/Marshall as a "tandem" would be that it would wind up short-changing the bullpen a lot of the time. In a lot of ways it would be like having a 6 man rotation which will mean that that is one less person in the pen or off the bench. If Wood throws 60 pitches he would not be able to do much for at least 2-3 days and I think it would just result in having lots of confusion over who is/is not available.

 

If we could drop it down to 30-40 pitches then it might work because the workload for KW would not be as much, but I can see him having too many times where he would exit in the 2-3 inning with that kind of pitch count.

 

When it was discussed on cubs.com years ago it was more discussed as an option for minor league pitchers and really teach them to limit their number of pitches and make every pitch count.

[cheapseats]

But if creativity is required, what would be a totally new approach? Wood says he can't start, but is relieving 2 out of 3 days really better? How about tandem starting Marshall and Wood every 4 or 5 days. Hard throwing righty for 60 pitches, then soft-tossing lefty for a few innings. I suspect that the 100 innings Wood pitches in this scenario is easier on the arm than the 80 IP he might get in the bullpen.

 

This wouldn't even be a totally new approach. It's already done by several teams in the minors. It's done to save young arms, but I would imagine that it also makes the tandem pitchers more effective because they should only have to go through the opposing lineup twice at most.

[USSoccer]

The Cubs aren't a forward-thinking enough organization to do this. You'd also almost have to have a 12 man pitching staff, which I'm not a fan of.

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs aren't a forward-thinking enough organization to do this. You'd also almost have to have a 12 man pitching staff, which I'm not a fan of.

 

They've had a 12 man staff anyway.