Offensive questions

[Pinktermite]

My serious question here will hopefully lead to some interesting discussion of the Cubs woes. I look at the stats on MLB.com and split them six ways from sunday and I wonder, seriously, why the Cubs are last in runs scored, near last in BA with RISP, and last in OBP.

 

We have some quality hitters on this team: Lee, Aram, Walker, Jones (yes, he's a good hitter), and lately Pierre...and of course Murton when he's in there.

 

Why are they last with BA and runner on third. Why are they last in almost all these categories?

 

Does Dusty really have influence over these grown men who are professional hitters? Is it just "Cubs" luck? Is it bad coaching? In other years the Cubs have been able to hit the ball, but can't pitch it. Getting to the crux of why they hit the ball but can't hit it when it counts is critical to their success. Just wanting some thoughts, thought it would be fun to discuss.

 

My theory is that they balance good hitters with bad and then do worse and press too hard when they are losing like they are. So they aren't as bad as they look.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think if you have players that just hit the ball and don't get on base other than a hit you are taking a chance by counting on them to always get a hit. Small works if you have pitching and the scores are low as you can push across a run when you need it but when your pitching is bad too you are not going to be able to do that either and since the Cubs made a push for that type of offense they have been getting crushed. I also think losing has something to do with it as the mental fatigue can be over whelming to some and you can't have that type of thinking going on as hitting a baseball is hard enough as it is.

 

Now in a perfect world....Pierre hit 300/340 from the beginning and Lee was never hurt you would have seen a different team IMO, hitting wise anyways. Add to that Baker not putting Perez in as often as he does and just letting Murton hit without interference from Baker/Clines. I think this team would have been decent.

[Tracer Bullet]

Jones has been doing well lately, but I'd argue that he's not a good hitter, based on career numbers. Pierre is just not a good hitter at all. His .350 OBP for June is the lowest OBP I'd consider acceptable for a leadoff guy. It should be .380+. And I think you left out Barrett, who is a good hitter.

 

But your point still stands, we have some good hitters. I really think it comes down to Dusty's philosophy (which some have apparently adopted - Murton - and some had before they got here - Jones, JP - though Jones is on pace to have his second lowest BB/AB rate of his career, and he has some pretty low rates) of swing early/swing often. He wants aggressive hitters and preaches that.

 

Someone in another thread posted a list of all the Dodgers with OBP above .350 or something like that. And there were a lot of them. There have been a lot of threads that document the correlation between OBP and scoring runs. I think its that simple. You fill your lineup with high OBP guys and you'll score more runs. You fill your lineup with 3-4 OBP guys and 4 hackers and you won't score much.

[goonys evil twin]

You really wonder why they are last in so many stats?

 

It's because they are about 50 years behind the times in terms of thinking about how to win baseball games. They think walks are for pansies and that real men swing early and often. They think the goal to hitting should be to not strike out. They didn't like the results when they were a high slugging team with no base runners so they went with a bunch of slappy mcgees to "balance things out" and now they have a couple singles hitters and no base runners.

 

 

It's pretty simple, they don't draw enough walks (and that is by design, not accident) and they don't hit the ball hard enough when they swing.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and Juan Pierre is not a good hitter, not even close.

[CuseCubFan69]

You really wonder why they are last in so many stats?

 

It's because they are about 50 years behind the times in terms of thinking about how to win baseball games. They think walks are for pansies and that real men swing early and often. They think the goal to hitting should be to not strike out. They didn't like the results when they were a high slugging team with no base runners so they went with a bunch of slappy mcgees to "balance things out" and now they have a couple singles hitters and no base runners.

 

 

It's pretty simple, they don't draw enough walks (and that is by design, not accident) and they don't hit the ball hard enough when they swing.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and Juan Pierre is not a good hitter, not even close.

 

Yeah, not getting on base or hitting for power can really zap a teams offensive stats.

[cubfan1955]

Baker lamented continued failures to drive in runs with two out and the fact his pitchers keep handing out walks that lead to runs.

 

"Geez,'' he said in exasperation. "They got two-out hits, and we didn't get any. With all their runs, there were walks.''

 

He looks to be at the end of his rope.

He still doesn't get it.

[TheDude]

Jones has been doing well lately, but I'd argue that he's not a good hitter, based on career numbers. Pierre is just not a good hitter at all. His .350 OBP for June is the lowest OBP I'd consider acceptable for a leadoff guy. It should be .380+. And I think you left out Barrett, who is a good hitter.

 

That's a heck of a standard there, .380. Only a handful of lead-off hitters each year have that OBP, so .380+ is really the elite lead-off hitters around the league, not simply the good ones.

 

Right now only Youkilis, Ichiro, and Roberts have that threshold or better as everyday players, with Freel and Carroll also above the .380 mark in limited, part-time duty.

[TheDude]

Baker lamented continued failures to drive in runs with two out and the fact his pitchers keep handing out walks that lead to runs.

 

"Geez,'' he said in exasperation. "They got two-out hits, and we didn't get any. With all their runs, there were walks.''

 

He looks to be at the end of his rope.

He still doesn't get it.

 

Maybe not some of the times, but he's correct here, so what is he not getting this time exactly? Prior had 2 outs with nobody on base and gave away two runs by walking consecutive batters before a couple of ordinary singles. No walks and likely no runs. later in the game, it was the same story.

[cubfan1955]

Baker lamented continued failures to drive in runs with two out and the fact his pitchers keep handing out walks that lead to runs.

 

"Geez,'' he said in exasperation. "They got two-out hits, and we didn't get any. With all their runs, there were walks.''

 

He looks to be at the end of his rope.

He still doesn't get it.

 

Maybe not some of the times, but he's correct here, so what is he not getting this time exactly? Prior had 2 outs with nobody on base and gave away two runs by walking consecutive batters before a couple of ordinary singles. No walks and likely no runs. later in the game, it was the same story.

He doesn't get it that walks can help an offense. He laments that our pitchers give them up but doesn't recognize the value of our hitters taking them.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Baker lamented continued failures to drive in runs with two out and the fact his pitchers keep handing out walks that lead to runs.

 

"Geez,'' he said in exasperation. "They got two-out hits, and we didn't get any. With all their runs, there were walks.''

 

He looks to be at the end of his rope.

He still doesn't get it.

 

Maybe not some of the times, but he's correct here, so what is he not getting this time exactly? Prior had 2 outs with nobody on base and gave away two runs by walking consecutive batters before a couple of ordinary singles. No walks and likely no runs. later in the game, it was the same story.

 

The problem is the staff continues preaching aggressive hitting, downplaying the base on balls all the while lamenting their fate from giving up too many runs via the base on balls. They continue to foolishly believe that "clutch" two-out hitting is the reason this team is not doing well offensively.

[Tracer Bullet]

Jones has been doing well lately, but I'd argue that he's not a good hitter, based on career numbers. Pierre is just not a good hitter at all. His .350 OBP for June is the lowest OBP I'd consider acceptable for a leadoff guy. It should be .380+. And I think you left out Barrett, who is a good hitter.

 

That's a heck of a standard there, .380. Only a handful of lead-off hitters each year have that OBP, so .380+ is really the elite lead-off hitters around the league, not simply the good ones.

 

Right now only Youkilis, Ichiro, and Roberts have that threshold or better as everyday players, with Freel and Carroll also above the .380 mark in limited, part-time duty.

 

Depends on who you look at, I guess. You act like only 3 guys in the league ever put up a .380 and can hit in the #1 spot.

 

I don't care if they're a "lead-off hitter" or not. For example, Jeter has a .427 OBP. I hate Jeter, but he'd be a great lead-off hitter (even though he usually bats 2nd). I'd have no problem with Freel as an everyday 2B/SS and leading off at .380+. Rios has been used at leadoff at times this year and he's at .383. DeJesus is over .400 and batting lead-off (though he missed a lot of time for injuries). I'd much rather have him in CF and leading off than ol' 43.

 

Heck, drop it to .374 and pick up Sizemore, Swisher, Brady Clark, little Sarge, Utley, and (ugh) Eckstein. And Brandon Phillips is just a bit lower at .372.

 

And I'm sure there are other guys who could lead-off that I missed. So that's 14 guys who are .372 or higher, all could easily end the year above .380. Why is so bad to want my team to have a lead-off hitter w/ an OBP that 14 possible lead-off guys have (not all leading off on their current teams, but that's not my fault)? I don't think that's too high a standard. If the Cubs valued OBP as much as I'd like them too, they could easily have a .380 OBP guy at the top of the order.

 

EDIT: I shouldn't have included Swisher - if he were our RF, he would not be leading off (nor is he for Oakland). But I left off Vizquel and Freddy Sanchez who are both over .380 this year.

Edited July 5, 2006 by yanrslatr

[Abe Frohman]

There is plenty of talent on this team. I quiver when I think where the Cubs would be with Jim Leyland running the show.

 

I really think that fundementals and execution are the biggest problem with this team. And that points the finger right at work ethic/coaching. You can't bat Neifi Perez in the 2 spot, Todd Walker in the 3 or 4 spot, sit your hottest hitter (Jacques Jones) against a team he hammers - and expect good results. For a manager that "plays the odds," Dusty Baker has not won a hand in a long time. That's what I think.

 

This team shows zero heart. Collectively, they look like they have no game plan when they step to the plate. Swinging at the first pitch makes things easy on the opposing pitcher/defense. The Cubs do a lot of that. Just my opinion.

 

This is a good team that swan-dove right into the tank. They play horrible baseball.

Edited July 5, 2006 by Abe Frohman

[Tracer Bullet]

There is plenty of talent on this team. I quiver when I think where the Cubs would be with Jim Leyland running the show.

 

I really think that fundementals and execution are the biggest problem with this team. And that points the finger right at work ethic/coaching. You can't bat Neifi Perez in the 2 spot, Todd Walker in the 3 or 4 spot, sit your hottest hitter (Jacque Jones) against a team he hammers - and expect good results. For a manager that "plays the odds," Dusty Baker has not one a hand in a long time. That's what I think.

 

This team shows zero heart. Collectively, they look like they have no game plan when they step to the plate. Swinging at the first pitch makes things easy on the opposing pitcher/defense. The Cubs do a lot of that. Just my opinion.

 

This is a good team that swan-dove right into the tank. They play horrible baseball.

 

Barrett punched AJP in the face essentially b/c he plays for the White Sox and that's a big rival. That shows heart and fire to me. May not be a wise play, but Barrett still cares. And I don't think he's the only one.

[Abe Frohman]

There is plenty of talent on this team. I quiver when I think where the Cubs would be with Jim Leyland running the show.

 

I really think that fundementals and execution are the biggest problem with this team. And that points the finger right at work ethic/coaching. You can't bat Neifi Perez in the 2 spot, Todd Walker in the 3 or 4 spot, sit your hottest hitter (Jacque Jones) against a team he hammers - and expect good results. For a manager that "plays the odds," Dusty Baker has not one a hand in a long time. That's what I think.

 

This team shows zero heart. Collectively, they look like they have no game plan when they step to the plate. Swinging at the first pitch makes things easy on the opposing pitcher/defense. The Cubs do a lot of that. Just my opinion.

 

This is a good team that swan-dove right into the tank. They play horrible baseball.

 

Barrett punched AJP in the face essentially b/c he plays for the White Sox and that's a big rival. That shows heart and fire to me. May not be a wise play, but Barrett still cares. And I don't think he's the only one.

 

I am talking about the team, collectively.

 

Barrett punching AP in the face has nothing to do with playing baseball - and cost the Cubs 10 games without one of their best hitters. I don't call that playing with fire, or the fire the Cubs need to win ballgames.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There is plenty of talent on this team.

 

No, there really isn't. Our outfield (overall) is pathetic, our infield is average at best, and our pitching is absolutely atrocious. A handful are having down years, but most of what's happened is because we do not have enough talent in those positions.

[Abe Frohman]

There is plenty of talent on this team.

 

No, there really isn't. Our outfield (overall) is pathetic, our infield is average at best, and our pitching is absolutely atrocious. A handful are having down years, but most of what's happened is because we do not have enough talent in those positions.

 

On paper, don't you think we have talent? We never really had a true #5 hitter going into the year, and we knew the team was lacking in power - but we came into the year with a strong closer, bullpen, and pretty good defense. The hitting was improved for the most part (on paper), and the starting pitching, as far as we knew, was going to be above average (Zambrano, Maddux, Wood, Prior, and a few promising rookies contending with Rusch/Williams for the #5 spot).

 

Pierre/Walker/DLee/Ramirez/Jones/Barrett/Murton/Cedeno wasn't the WORST looking lineup pre-season. There is some talent in there.

[Pinktermite]

I don't know that preaching aggressive hitting (aka Dusty B.) is necessarily a bad thing, but when you have hitters that can't pick good pitches, therein lies the rub.

 

Many hitters we have, the good ones anyway, are very good hitters. I tend to agree that it's lack of heart and lack of good coaching that has been this team's downfall, rather than lack of baserunners.

 

And the fact that we've had like 834 starting pitchers this year. And the losing is additive...makes everything worse. Kinda like being diabetic makes all illnesses tougher to treat, losing makes everything harder and magnifies everything more.

 

So in summary:

Losing

Bad coaching

Bad starting pitching (mostly)

and NOT aggressive hitting, are the problems...maybe not...who knows.

[Abe Frohman]

Am I right when it seems that Dusty's definition of "aggressive hitting" is basically not taking a walk and hitting the closest thing thrown down the plate? Is he talking about it being taboo to take a strike?

 

Because I call that "Stupid hitting."

[goonys evil twin]

Many hitters we have, the good ones anyway, are very good hitters. I tend to agree that it's lack of heart and lack of good coaching that has been this team's downfall, rather than lack of baserunners.

 

Heart is the problem? Not having baserunners isn't a problem? We have very good hitters?

 

You've said the exact opposite of the truth in this post.

[Tracer Bullet]

I tend to agree that it's lack of heart and lack of good coaching that has been this team's downfall, rather than lack of baserunners.

 

I disagree with every fiber of my soul. Lack of baserunners and bad pitching has been the downfall of this team. In that order, in my opinion.

 

When you're scoring runs, pitching well, and winning, "heart" doesn't seem to be an issue that gets raised often.

[goonys evil twin]

There is plenty of talent on this team.

 

No, there really isn't. Our outfield (overall) is pathetic, our infield is average at best, and our pitching is absolutely atrocious. A handful are having down years, but most of what's happened is because we do not have enough talent in those positions.

 

On paper, don't you think we have talent? We never really had a true #5 hitter going into the year, and we knew the team was lacking in power - but we came into the year with a strong closer, bullpen, and pretty good defense. The hitting was improved for the most part (on paper), and the starting pitching, as far as we knew, was going to be above average (Zambrano, Maddux, Wood, Prior, and a few promising rookies contending with Rusch/Williams for the #5 spot).

 

Pierre/Walker/DLee/Ramirez/Jones/Barrett/Murton/Cedeno wasn't the WORST looking lineup pre-season. There is some talent in there.

 

There is a lot of physical talent, but very few baseball skills. That's what happens when you try to put a track team on a baseball field. Baseball isn't a sport for decathletes.

 

The lineup was bad from the start. It's been bad for years, and it was easy to see that it would struggle this year, again. When you ignore the biggest problem and overemphasize the wrong areas for improvement, you make it very difficult to improve the team.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There is plenty of talent on this team.

 

No, there really isn't. Our outfield (overall) is pathetic, our infield is average at best, and our pitching is absolutely atrocious. A handful are having down years, but most of what's happened is because we do not have enough talent in those positions.

 

On paper, don't you think we have talent? We never really had a true #5 hitter going into the year, and we knew the team was lacking in power - but we came into the year with a strong closer, bullpen, and pretty good defense. The hitting was improved for the most part (on paper), and the starting pitching, as far as we knew, was going to be above average (Zambrano, Maddux, Wood, Prior, and a few promising rookies contending with Rusch/Williams for the #5 spot).

 

Pierre/Walker/DLee/Ramirez/Jones/Barrett/Murton/Cedeno wasn't the WORST looking lineup pre-season. There is some talent in there.

 

On paper we have some talent, not nearly enough to say that our problems are from a lack of hustle, grit, heart, fire, or anything else. The wrong players, players who range from extremely below average to very poor, are playing key roles with the team. We had an overall weak offensive lineup that included 2 first year players. I think we're performing much worse than we're capable of, but I see that a HUGE part of the problem is that we don't have the talent. I feel OK with a core lineup of Walker/Lee/Ramirez/Barrett, but you need to add at least 1, if not 2, big bats if you want Murton and Cedeno in the lineup.

Edited July 5, 2006 by Ding Dong Johnson

[Pinktermite]

You guys might disagree with the "heart" comment, but the Tigers are doing a lot with a manager that demands guts and heart. The talent on that Tigers team didn't come through until they had Leyland.

 

Bad pitching, bad baserunning, bad hitting, all to an extent have something to do with the coaching...and not just the physical talent the players have.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

You guys might disagree with the "heart" comment, but the Tigers are doing a lot with a manager that demands guts and heart. The talent on that Tigers team didn't come through until they had Leyland.

 

Bad pitching, bad baserunning, bad hitting, all to an extent have something to do with the coaching...and not just the physical talent the players have.

 

Wow. I'm sure it has nothing to do with greater talent. Does this "heart" take ballplayers who are inadequate and put them in the top 10 of most major categories? The Tigers are doing a lot because they are better. They've added better players. Players who can pitch, run bases, and hit.

[Tracer Bullet]

You guys might disagree with the "heart" comment, but the Tigers are doing a lot with a manager that demands guts and heart. The talent on that Tigers team didn't come through until they had Leyland.

 

Bad pitching, bad baserunning, bad hitting, all to an extent have something to do with the coaching...and not just the physical talent the players have.

 

Frankly, the Tigers have a lot more talent than we do.

 

Granderson is coming along nicely, and his OBP is good (though he may be better off not as a lead off hitter). Then they have Pudge, Ordonez, Thames (got playing time thanks to DY & Monroe's injuries - or other issues), Guillen all playing well. Shelton was one of the best hitters in baseball for a month. Oh, and Rogers seems to be doing fine, but they also have Bondy and Verlander pitching great baseball.

 

Leyland is getting a little too much credit, in my opinion. They're playing well for him, but they have a lot of talent there.