Diamond Mind 2006 projections are up

[Catman61]

NL Central      W   L   Pct  GB   RF   RA  #DIV   #WC
St. Louis      95  67  .586   -  781  664  85.5   4.8 
Chicago        85  77  .525  10  735  704   8.5  26.0
Milwaukee      79  83  .488  16  736  746   2.5   7.3
Houston        78  84  .482  17  720  754   2.5   5.0
Cincinnati     77  85  .475  18  724  760   1.0   1.5
Pittsburgh     75  87  .463  20  706  765         1.0

 

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2006.htm

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Chicago Cubs (85-77, division title 8.5%, wild card 26%)

 

A year ago, we projected 82 wins for the Cubs, at a time when many baseball experts were predicting a division title and a deep postseason run. We didn't think they'd score enough runs, we were concerned about the health of their top starting pitchers, and we saw the bullpen as a liability. As it happened, the Cubs finished the real season in fourth place with 79 wins.

 

This year, I was surprised when the Cubs were able to gain a few games and grab a few division titles in our simulations.

 

I figured the offense would be worse than it was in 2005. It would be asking a lot for Derrek Lee to put up another monster season, and newcomers Jacque Jones and Juan Pierre aren't projected to be especially good at the plate. The only reason for optimism was a full season from Matt Murton, who posted a .907 OPS in 160 plate appearances a year ago. Sure enough, the Cubs ranked 10th in the league in scoring in our simulations after finished 9th in 2005's real season.

 

The pitching was better, however. After finishing 7th in the NL in runs allowed last year, the Cubs were bested only by the Cardinals in our simulations. This assumes the team will get a total of 55-60 starts from Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, and with both of them starting the year on the DL, this could be a shaky assumption. With the additions of Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry, the bullpen should be improved.