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The Simplest off-Season Plan for Cubbies


Cubs Video

Hello Cubs World, 

we all know there's many unknowns in an early off-season - surprise trade block activity, market values, player attitudes about joining certain clubs, and various subtle factors that fans simply cannot access. That being said....

Let's take the simplest approach to revising the Cubs roster for 2026 and look for only the obvious additions necessary - and think like Jed Hoyer. don't even waste time on possibilities that He wouldn't embrace.  

Cubs have a solid team, and most positions are spoken for in 2026. They also have several key promotions to make in terms of Owen Caissie at RF, Moises Ballesteros as DH/C, and Jonathan Long as 1B RH platoon and backup 3B. Kevin Alcantara is in line for his last season as the "27th man" callup in case of injury, and for looks against LH pitchers. With such a lineup, only 1 Veteran need be signed to take Tucker's spot on the roster. Not right field: Caissie will shine there in rotation with Suzuki. Instead, a rotational infielder with a real bat.

Similarly, the Cubs have all the starting pitching depth they need and merely need a higher upside Ace than Imanaga. They have good new depth in Jaxson Wiggins, Brandon Woodruff and Riley Martin. Their young bullpen arms are also quite good, and they only need to sign a few veterans - hopefully some of them will be returning from 2025, especially Brad Keller, Drew Pomerantz, and Caleb Theilbar.

And let's assume that Kyle Tucker is gone because we lose the bidding war - this gives us all the money we need for multiple key player extensions, and no excuse in terms of finding an ace, an impact bat, and finishing the bullpen.  

Verdict: What 2026 Cubs Truly Need is very simple:

1) An Ace starter to replace Imanaga with a bit more oomph

2) An Impact veteran bat - ideally, left or switch hitting with both power and hit tool - to rotate with righties Shaw, Hoerner, and Swanson, and keep them fresh. 

3) The usual bullpen rebuild 

4) Contract extensions for PCA, Hoerner, and Bush, and even perhaps Kelly and Steele. Happ is very iffy and Suzuki will be walking.  


Best Starting Pitcher Available

The Cubs ended the post-season shy of 1 true ace that could take them to victory. Imanaga, whom I love as a personality, had his chance but was very rusty after his hamstring injury -- =you simply can't hold a roster spot that important, for that kind of money, for a player who chokes badly down the homestretch. Imanaga was a clear #2 in 2024 for a postseason squad; still, moving forward, his velocity limits suggest he may never again be better than a #3 - and one that gives up homeruns at an unacceptable rate to ever be a trustworthy postseason hero. I love the guy, but I also want to win a World Series. I want 3 aces, not one or even two. I have a feeling that some team will overpay for Imanaga-- teams like the Angels, Rockies, and maybe even Cardinals could give him a sizably bigger contract.

So who's the best ace available? It's not exactly clear. Let's look ...

JAPAN's Tatsuya Imai (28) has the highest upside potential and the best fastball that plays 97-99. 

Dylan Cease (30) had a down year, but his peripherals still show a more powerful pitcher than Imanaga. 
Framber Valdez (32) is an extreme groundball pitcher that would play well with the Cub's elite defense but had a somewhat down year.
Ranger Suárez (30) is coming off a career year and looks fantastic via Baseball Savant, but he's finesse not power. Cubs could use more velocity.   

Brandon Woodruff (33) of the Brewers is the most likely reclamation project to top out as a true ace in 2026. He still throws 95. 


After that, things become murky - Tyler Mahle is the most likely "Matthew Boyd type" salvage deal in the lower end of the pool - which is what Hoyer loves most. Although the fans probably want Imai, Cease, or Valdez, I don't see those happening. $150 million dollar contracts for starting pitchers isn't a Hoyer type of move. Suarez is the most similar to Imanaga, but is still looking at a 5 year deal. The most likely one to accept a short contract is Woodruff due to his recent injuries and age. I'm expecting a 1 year prove-it deal with a big 2nd year option, so he can reset his market value.

Verdict: The simple instinct is Woodruff on a short deal - reunite him with Craig Counsell and expect magic. If the Cubs commit for longer, Framber Valdez is ideal. 4 year, $110 mm deal, with $10mm buyout before year 4. 

1 Woodruff (L)

2 Horton (R)

3 Boyd (L)

4 Steele (L) mid-season

5 Taillon (R)

6 Rea (R)

Reserves: Wiggins/Birdsell/Brown/Assad/Wicks

An Impact Veteran Bat

Let's look at the free agent options here, as they are rather thin. We are ignoring DH or OF, as aforementioned, because Caissie and Ballesteros are cheap, high quality, and ready to go. We want one of the few guys who can play 2B and 3B and legit vie for playing time due to bat, and would also accept a moderate contract,  

Munetaka Murakami (26, N/A) is the Japanese answer, but a fringe glove. He would platoon with Matt Shaw, taking over the primary role at 3B. However, he's going to be looking for a contract north of 4 years and 75 million. He may struggle to reach 400 at bats in the current Cubs lineup. 

Willi Castro (29)  gets more WAR from his glove than bat. He didn't hit well for the Cubs in September, but he's better than what they've had. 
Jorge Polanco (32) is intriguing as a rare 2B/3B option with plus hit and power. He beats Swanson, Hoerner, and Shaw against righties.

Beyond that, the fit gets worse. Sure, the Cubs could, in theory, bring in Alex Bregman or maybe a Suarez for an everyday 3B player. But this would negate Matt Shaw at 3B entirely and would not create a utility infield position. The better Hoyer bet is to kill two birds with one stone and get that elusive lefty utility infield bat he's been chasing for 5 years.   

Take a closer look at Polanco. He slashed .265/.326/.495 (.821 OPS) with 30 doubles, 78 RBIs, a 15.6% strikeout rate (almost half his 2024 rate of 29.2%) and an 8% walk rate in 524 plate appearances across 138 games before October. He was a 2025 Silver Slugger Award finalist at second base.

Verdict: Jorge Polanco is the perfect fit. He is expected to sign a 2 year, 20-25 million dollar contract- a move that fits Hoyer's short term thinking. He has exactly the hitting profile to pencil in the middle of the batting order. He will be affordable, impactful (he would make everyone better by platooning at multiple positions), and with so many good gloves in the infield, the Cubs can overlook his below average glove. The real question is if Polanco would be ok with a 450 plate appearances in a rotational role on a World Series quest. As tempting as Murakami is, he'll be looking for a 5 year deal, and Hoyer won't do that. 

Conclusion

The Cubs have an opportunity to have an absolutely stacked lineup, even without any big free agent signings. The simple addition of Polanco would make for an ample replacement for Tucker, given that the entire bench should outhit last year's bench. Simply adding a pitcher like Woodruff or Valdez is all that it takes to fix Imanaga's collapse. Boyd, Horton, and a healthy Steele are already viable post-season starters, and Taillon and Rea are both winning pitchers who find a way. This leaves plenty of money to extend PCA, Hoerner, and Busch, and still spend no more money than last year. 

With so many viable batting order combinations, every matchup can be micro-tuned. 
For example, consider this interesting scenario, where Swanson and Happ are taking days off. Notice that the batting order isn't any worse at all. Moreover, it is almost arbitrary because of how balanced it is, top to bottom. The whole team is above average at the plate, and almost everyone is multi-tool.  By adding Ballesteros, Polanco, and Caissie - 3 players chasing an .800 OPS in 2026 - we will barely even notice losing the pricey Kyle Tucker.  In effect, the ENTIRE ROSTER would hit well enough to play starting roles on most teams in the league. Looks great on paper. 

Numbers provided are the player's estimated stats @650 PA (Except C Kelly, estimated at 350), although some will have substantially less. This is just to normalize the comparison.   

                                   avg  obp  slg       hr     sb 

3B Shaw R              .275   .340   .430    20    30
1B Busch L              .270   .355   .500    35      8

RF Suzuki R            .270   .335   .485    30     10

DH Ballesteros L    .285  .360    .430    15      0

CF PCA L                 .255   .315    .500   35     45

2B Polanco S          .265   .325    .490   25      5

LF Caissie L            .255    .325   .475   25    20 

C Kelly R                 .260    .340   .445   15       5

SS Hoerner R         .295    .340   .360     8     35

Note: including Swanson and Happ, this lineup projects 9 out of 13 position players to hit 20 HR or more, and only 1 plater to hit less than a dozen (Hoerner). Amazingly balanced. Even the 26th man, Jonathan Long, could chase an .800 OPS his rookie year- he's a remarkably good hitter and should have a fast start in the majors. Despite all the Ballesteros and Caissie fanfare, Long is actually a more complete hitter over the last year, albeit from the Righthanded perspective. I estimate him with around 12 HR in 250 PA and an OPS north of .750 and a mission to kill lefties.  
 

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