hey Cubs World,

Its been a while but I am back. Woo! and I got a shoutout as runnerup for best community post. Nice....

Anyhoo///
let's check how we did in teh regular season predictions...

Zips predicted 90.6 wins for the cubs. So basically 91. 
I predicted 92.5 - it would have been 95 if Steele was an impact arm all year. I correctly surmised we'd lose one of our top 2 starters. 

How about my predictions for the rest?
Well, my biggest over-reach was Kyle Tucker. I thought he's have an MVP type year, and he started out at a top 6 hitter in the league. Multiple minor injuries really took him out of the picture.....
And, like most of the sporting world, I thought Suzuki would hold onto his newfound power through the fall, but his august and September was a bit dry. 
 
I hate to say it but i correctly argued that PCA would come up short against lefty pitching, and man, did he crumble against lefties after the All-star break. I called Michael Busch as the best hitter on the team past Tucker, and I was right. The only thing keeping him from superstar status is a platoon problem. 

I correctly argued Justin Turner was cooked and only a slap hitter against lefties at this stage -- overpaid -- and is probably retiring. Basically, I called the whole season pretty well. I even correctly argued that Boyd would hold up, Rea would outperform expectations, and Brown would fail.  

The only thing I could have called better was the collapse of the Cubs utility guy Jon Berti. He was looking good and then.... nothing. 

So, let's just say I'm feeling pretty cocky right now. 

Sadly, I also guessed they wouldn't make it past the Dodgers, but I had hoped they would win game 5 vs the Brewers, expecting a loss. 

Here's the good news: The Cubs are not regressing next year. They will have an even stronger chance of going the distance. Given the situation, I expect the Cubs ownership to do something next year they didn't do this year: spend real assets at the All-Star Break. Had the Cubs found a better platoon bat than Turner at 1B;  1 elite pitcher to buy midseason instead of the stinker move to get Soroka;  had their bench not totally sucked at the plate, and had Shaw and PCA benefitted from more veterancy, they would have had the extra oomph to break through. that's how close we were. 

Well, guess what?
1) Steele is that extra pitcher. He'll be in the rotation by the ASB. He'll come back and throw 3.2 ERA ball. 

2) Jonathan Long, or some veteran, will outperform Turner as RH 1B platoon. Hopefully Long does the job. I want 1 WAR from 200 AB in that role.    

3) Shaw and PCA will both strike out less and be more consistent this year. PCA will stay a 6 WAR player, and Shaw likely 3 WAR due to a solid glove and 30 SB. In fact, I think Shaw will take over the leadoff role by midseason and hit .270-.290 range with 20 HR and .340-.350 OPS in 500 AB. He's just getting warmed up. 

4)  Their bench will hit better than they have in years. Ballesteros, Caissie, and Suzuki will 3 man rotate at DH/RF. Both the young guys will outplay Shaw their rookie years because they had more time to work on their swings.... but remember Shaw will have a big step forward as well. Caissie is looking like a 30HR/20SB replacement for Tucker, but with a lower OPS. My guess is Caissie can match or exceed Ian Happ's 2025 performance in 2026.   

5) Amaya will have a career year at the plate, and Kelly will repeat his stellar performance. 

6) Tucker will move on, but we will be able to spend that money on what we really need: the best platoon SS/2B/3B LH bat possible to rotate with Swanson, Hoerner, and Shaw. Pay whatever price to find that righty killer infielder. We desperately need a guy off the bench who is a bigger bat than these three rather than a mere utility glove. Our fielding is already great and not going to be a problem compared to situational hitting. 

7) The bad news is that I think Happ and Swanson are both stuck in quicksand and unlikely to have better hitting performances. They are who they are. 

I haven't run the numbers, and it's too early to assume I know their full lineup, Still, we can suppose the Cubs will win no fewer games next year - 92 at least - unless they are hit be a terrible rash of injuries. If they get the impact lefty infielder I crave, expect 95 wins. Worst case scenario, they simply sign Tucker and worry about developing their bench on a tight budget. And that's still a postseason-worthy squad. 

So, while the 2025 season turned out exactly as we expected - very good not great - we have more upside than downside next year. I hope we can resign most of our bullpen, because many of them proved their greatness. the prices will be high for some of them, though. Let's try to retain Pomeranz, Keller, Thielbar, and Kittredge. 

Let's go Cubs.....

... and i hope to actually commit to producing feature articles in 2026 !!!!!