Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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http://thiswaytotheegress.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/felicityhuffman.jpg I can do both.
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The Ashes runs from July 10 to August 25. Can't wait.
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What site is that? bleachernation.com
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That's like pre-2015 at the earliest. :banghead:
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Better than several other pitchers we've been connected with this offseason.
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The insider in question didn't specify about money, but he implied that it was simply that the Angels preferred the player the KC player to Russell. Since the Angels were just looking for a free player for the option they wanted to decline, it doesn't make much sense to assume the Cubs were looking for the Angels to pick up more salary than the buyout.
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ABTY says Cubs were offering Russell for Santana and the Angels just preferred the AAA guy the Royals sent.
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2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yes. Mostly because he's a pitcher. -
The Blue Jays apparently declined Rajai Davis's $3 million option, paying a $500k buyout instead. Then they turned around and re-signed him for a 1-year, $2.5 million deal. I'm curious is if there's some sort of procedural reason for that or if it just worked out that way.
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In his most recent season, League was a league-average reliever by xFIP. Paying $7 million/year for a reliably league-average reliever is an overpay, but probably not going to make the top 15 overpays of the offseason.
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So I can't look at all the innings, and I can't look at all the starts, and I can't look at all the starts this year. So for the 12, 2012, non-September starts, he threw 62.1 innings, striking out 65 (9.4 K/9), walking 16 (2.3/9) and allowing 8 home runs (1.19/9). I guess the strikeouts are nice and the walks aren't bad. I guess I can kind of see it. I have a pretty good feeling we're going to find out one way or the other. If I had to pick one player who I was most sure would be a new Cub after this offseason, it'd be him. A soft-tossing right-hander with extreme fly-ball tendencies at Wrigley has some potential for ugliness, but maybe there's something in his repertoire that can combat this.
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I never said any such thing. Here's everything I said about that was directly League's market value and the Dodgers' pay level in that thread, emphasis added
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That's mighty bullish on a 29-year-old with 1.1 career fWAR/200 IP (and 0.96 this year). Less than an hour ago, in the thread directly below this one, you said WAR still isn't a good way to measure relievers. Villanueva has 56 starts out of 301 games. WAR is a bad way to measure the value of a reliever, because it ignores leverage. If you were asking me how valuable I thought Villanueva could be in a relief role, I wouldn't come back with "Well, here's his WAR/70 IP," because WAR isn't a good measure for his value as a reliever. But we're not talking about his value as a reliever. We're talking about his value as a starter, so ignoring leverage is perfectly fine. If you want to just focus on his 56 starts instead of his overall numbers, he actually looks quite a bit worse.
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That's mighty bullish on a 29-year-old with 1.1 career fWAR/200 IP (and 0.96 this year).
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Why? We could do much better things with $13M. Agreed. But I don't want to hate on the idea too hard because it'd be better than ending the offseason with our two new SPs being like Carlos Villanueva and someone else like that.
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Because it was a really bad season and most recent performance is still a pretty good indicator of near-future performance.
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xFIP- the last five seasons: 97, 81, 100, 74, 83. He's better than league average. Real question - is xFIP normalized separately for SP and RP? My guess is no, so you could argue that he's been slightly below average in two of those five years.
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The problem with Ian Stewart has never been the money, and WAR still isn't a good way to measure relievers.
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Under either WAR calculation, he should be trolling for an NRI this offseason and not getting a guaranteed $12 million extra from the Royals.
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Fangraphs lists Santana as literally the worst starting pitcher in baseball last year. Although some guys had a worse rate but didn't get as many starts.
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I don't think the track record of throw-hard, low K, high BB relievers leaving their primes is a particularly good one. Scott Linebrink immediately jumps to mind, but even he had much better K and BB numbers. Linebrink was a fly-ball pitcher. He went from being a slightly better than average reliever through about age 29 to a slightly below average relief after. How much of an overpay is it? WAR undervalues relievers, but even WAR has him worth about $10 million the past two years. They're overpaying by $2 million a year for three years. Worth maybe a snicker, but there are far bigger mistakes being made most weeks this offseason. It wasn't even the worst overpay of the day, seeing as how someone picked up Ervin Santana's option.
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xFIP- the last five seasons: 97, 81, 100, 74, 83. He's better than league average.
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I think the "bullpens are a crapshoot" meme has become severely overrated. Back in the day when we were all looking at ERA+ or whatever, sure, there was a ton of variance in what we saw. But with what we know about pitching today, it shouldn't be that hard to figure out which guys are consistently good and which ones aren't. Howry's xFIP the two years before we picked him up and the three years we had him: 3.84, 3.97, 3.84, 4.00, 4.17.
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He's a good relief pitcher. They overpaid for a good relief pitcher. xFIP the last three seasons: 3.52, 3.09, 3.99. Yes, the HR-rate isn't likely to be 0.13 every year, but it's generally going to be very low, because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher. Yes, it's fun to laugh at overpays, and this is clearly an overpay. But I'd rather overpay than leave money on the table.
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Anyway, back on topic because this thread doesn't have to be about Kyle. I'd rather have League at 3/$21 than what we had in the bullpen last year.