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macarthur31

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Everything posted by macarthur31

  1. macarthur31
    Last year, Evan Dreilich reported at the Athletic about MLB's Fan Council, which was a monthly video call with 90 fans and league executives, which on the surface seems like logical business practice in terms of staying connected with the customer to learn what's working and not. However, when it turns out that those 90 aren't necessarily rotating in and out, and are comprised of those with large social media followings (with handles like "Rational Yankees Fan") - it's hard not to intuit that this was MLB setting up it's influencers to push their agenda on social media. Align that work with a paid media push to "Level the Playing Field", and while fans don't necessarily "vote" on the CBA, they really want to win fan favor. And, their political messaging focusing on "fairness through reducing payroll disparity" is compelling because of it's simplicity. Granted, in my Cub text chats, we're likely all aligned that this framing is BS, and that owners have always had the capability to narrow the gap themselves - they just opted not to, I intuit that the general baseball fan population isn't there. I'm curious to see how MLBPA is trying to counter this. In 2026, there are many more content creators like the former players at Foul Territory(who are former players) or Trevor May who have a good sized platform and credibility to push back, but it's gonna need more.
  2. macarthur31
    Both the NBA and NFL have 90% floor for salary cap - if a franchise doesn't spend the floor, then they cannot participate in revenue sharing (*gulp*). The NFL also sets a 90% floor, but they do that over an average of 3 seasons. However, the penalty is less severe - in this case, the team just pays the shortfall to the NFLPA, and the union distributes that to the players who were rostered at that time. And, yes, salary cap is pointless without a floor.
  3. macarthur31
    The only way that I can envision that the players defer to a salary cap (and if it does, it oughtta paired with a floor akin to what the NBA has - which is 90% of cap), then the owners should allow the MLBPA to determine what exactly entails "Baseball Related Income," and that includes review every season so that owners can't come up with new categories to stash money. Also, I subscribe to MLB.tv to watch the Cubs, and I'm starting to be inundated with MLB's ad campaign - "Level The Playing Field". Deep sigh.
  4. macarthur31
    I join you in feeling somewhat optimistic. I was elated when Jed swooped in and signed Counsell, as since I've lived here in Milwaukee for the past 15 years (and live about half mile south of Craig Counsell Park, no less) and witnessed how his steady management helped contribute to closing the Cubs' championship window so abruptly. I'd offer that that's been a significant factor in keeping the Cubs' in the mix, and perhaps in striking distance down the stretch when (fingers crossed) the majority of our hitters can be playing closer to the back of their baseball card.
  5. macarthur31
    I align with getting a playoff starter and high lev (closer 1B) relief arm as well. It's too bad Michael Soroka didn't hang around longer, cause whatever Jed/Carter saw in him it's showing out this year: 15 GS 82.0 IP 3.07 ERA, 3.95 xERA 2.94 FIP, 3.60 xFIP 18.6 K-BB% 1.09 WHIP With regards to performance, this would slot just behind Ben Brown, but well ahead of the rest on our rotation. All this for $7.5M. All this to say, if Jed/Carter sign someone and I'm like, "Huh?!" I'm gonna give 'em the benefit of the doubt.
  6. macarthur31
    I think I read somewhere that during his recent stint in Des Moines, he's gotten the K Rate to 25%, while maintaining the slug. (Or maybe I dreamed it?). If true, let's get him some run against some lefties.
  7. macarthur31
    Jaguar reports for duty! Does that mean Matt Shaw to the IL?
  8. macarthur31
    From my vantage point, Jed seems to be very model driven - and then when opportunity presents itself, he'll make an assertive move. For me, the Counsell signing was (and still is) great - he had an opportunity to upgrade at manager with someone who is philosophically aligned, and was proven to capably handle a clubhouse (and the serendipity that the Counsell had already a deep affinity for the franchise). It's fascinating to me that there are these gripes about $8M a year being too much - but given there's no luxury tax penalty for signing staff, I don't get why people are so hung up on the price tag. Jed isn't the perfect GM - the Cubs have not been able to develop more homegrown TOR starters beyond Cade Horton, and they've been able to produce a power bat since they let Schwarber leave. Perhaps it's oversimplification - he appears to hope to hit on more of high floor bets (where I'd put PCA for Baez) , rather than risky-ish swings (though he tried with Kyle Tucker walk year gambit, and were also-rans in the Ohtani derby). Even extension for Nico and the Bregman contract are among the largest contracts in Cub history, but seem to be "sensible"/high floorish given their high defense, line-drive hitting approach and leadership intangibles. This aside - I've seen the Cubs trend up during his term, and I look at how the Cubs farm this year seems to be producing some more names quickly as a good omen that overall the talent development pipeline is also moving in a good direction.
  9. macarthur31
    To your point, if you go with 2025 numbers in RISP wRC+ (296 hitters with at least 70 PAs): Seiya Suzuki, 168 in 180 PA. 15th best Nico Hoerner. 148 in 172 PA. 36th best Michael Busch. 146 in 141 PA. 41st best Ian Happ. 122 in 170 PA. 110th best Carson Kelly. 110 in 134 PA. 138th best PCA. 106 in 176 PA. 151st best Dansby Swanson. 74 in 174 PA. 249th best Matt Shaw 64 in 106 PA. 267th best I'm also confident that Seiya is closer to 168 wRC+ than 19 wRC+.
  10. macarthur31
    Perhaps an alternative: wRC+ with RISP, minimum 30 PA, 247 qualified batters: Suzuki, 19 in 50 PA, 14th worst Matt Shaw: 44 in 32 PA, 26th worst Alex Bregman: 48 in 62 PA, 28th worst. Ian Happ: 72 in 68 PA, 56th worst Dansby Swanson: 75 in 58 PA, 65th worst Nico Hoerner: 83 in 61 PA, 79th worst On the flipside, here's who is comin' thru: Kelly, 155 in 50 PA, 53rd best Ballesteros, 144 in 33 PA, 69th best (noice) Busch, 133 in 62 PA, 82nd best
  11. macarthur31
    We're already going over the tax, so at least Ray's in a walk year. He posted 32 starts last year after Tommy John Surgery in '24, so perhaps I'm overthinking the injury history. "Ray for the right price" - for sure. And perhaps that is the tier Jed's gonna end up landing when it's all said and done.
  12. macarthur31
    I saw SFG's rough start to the season, and it's tough math to see a path to the playoffs with the Dodgers, Padres and D'backs (shoot, even the Rockies aren't a "layup" like they used to be). Posey seems like a very decisive leader, and them doing this trade hints to me that he's ready to strip this sucker to the studs - and might that be paired with trying to reduce their payroll. (Again, unsure if this has implications, but they just sold a minority stake to a private equity firm). Devers at $30M seems to be a super albatross that I want no part of. Robbie Ray in a walk year to pay the rest of $24.3M? Nah, pass.
  13. macarthur31
    Am I crazy for thinking of Logan Webb as a possible front line starter trade target? $18M per year through '28. Granted he's got a knee thing right now, but he's logged 30+ starts the last 4 seasons.
  14. macarthur31
    Checked out Lowder's game logs - through his first 6 starts, he was at 3.10 ERA and going 5-6 IP. But, his last start against @PIT - he went 1.1 IP and allowed 8 ER, which ballooned it up to 5.09. Was that the game where PIT had 8 BB in a row, or something? (I'm guessing cause Lowder had 4 BB and his replacement, Phillips gave up 4 BB without getting an out.)
  15. macarthur31
    Haven't watched alot of Reds ball, but after seeing them last night - they just seem young and hungry. Tito's the right skipper for them, and I intuit that they're gonna learn alot together. They could grab a wildcard spot. Suarez seems like a terrific veteran anchor for all the youth, but they need 1-2 more of his ilk. I was impressed by the hard contact they were making - Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz are gonna be a problem, man. However, in terms of 2026 - they seem like a season away.
  16. macarthur31
    Conforto got you covered, my guy.
  17. macarthur31
    Great googly moogly, this is suboptimal for Skubal and the Tigers.
  18. macarthur31
    Nice call, @Jason Ross on calling PCA's HR during the podcast earlier in the day. (Won't dock you points as you predicted it'd be off Buehler). I was super pleased when PCA drew a lefty on lefty walk in his previous AB, and seeing him deliver in such a high leverage spot confirms that he's trending in the right direction.
  19. macarthur31
  20. macarthur31
    Yeah - Randazzo and Willis don't necessarily come off to me as anti-Cubs. I mean, if anything, maybe they're trying to calibrate given they both have deep Cub connections. For me, I could envision them as the Marquee booth in an alternate timeline. During one exchange, Willis mentioned that Randazzo is a Cubs fan. He also acknowledged that he'll always appreciate the Cubs for taking a chance on him. When Dansby laid out to snag that line drive, Willis was audibly laughing in awe. If I was a Dodgers fan, I would be more annoyed - you had Nick Offerman doing the AppleTV promo and if it weren't for the Cubs being so tidy on defense, they would've spent tons more time reflecting on his adoration for the Cubs. Finally, while it's a bit annoying to find the Cubs on another platform, there's something about Apple TV's "Friday Night Baseball" that's been good to the Cubs. In addition to last night, which felt like October vibes in late April: July 4, the Cubs manifested "Rockets Red Glare" by launching franchise record 8 HRs over the Cardinals. I think Michael Busch did 1 WAR's worth of production just off of Miles Mikolas. May 2, the Cubs romped the Brewers at AmFam, and PCA's last blast gave us this timeless meme - "U mad, brewer bro?"
  21. macarthur31
    That's exactly the pitch he hit 0-2 to walk the Phils off.
  22. macarthur31
    I went back to the original framing of the question/survey, and realized that I didn't consider the playoffs in my assessment. Perhaps its due to the "stay in the now" mentality I hold even as a fan - it's hard for me to envision playoff matchups/performance as I don't know how our players (or our opponents) are trending, as well as the actual roster construction given injury. Overall, I see that Jed has built a team that can win 90+ in the regular season, but will likely need higher ceiling starting pitching to grind through the knockouts. I do wonder about 1) the actual trade market at the deadline and 2) Jed's (Tom's) willingness to really go for it - in terms of willingness to spend more and/or give up talent from that Cubs 2032 team. I tend to lean pessimistic just because that's what I've seen so far in Jed's tenure, but who knows - it's a new year - and we may not even have baseball in '27. Flags fly forever, blah blah blah. Another consideration - the Cubs farm team was rated in the pre-season as on the low end; however, it seems to me that there are some pleasant surprises emerging in the low minors (Owen Ayres, Cole Mathis, etc), as well as seeing our majors adjacent guys like Kevin Alcantara getting homer happy earlier - that also inspires optimism as well.
  23. macarthur31
    Overall, I'm optimistic. During this winning stretch against NYM and PHI, what resonates is the "high floor" of the Cubs: we've got professional ABs from 1-9, a very solid pitching rotation, terrific defense and very good speed. Counsell has shown he can cook a hobo stew out of the bullpen, as well as deftly weave in the bench to invite contributions from the whole roster. And as stated in other threads, this has been achieved in spite biblical levels of pitching injury and with Busch, Suzuki and PCA yet to really hit to the "back of their baseball card." Finally, the corps of Swanson, Bregman, Hoerner just exude a steady, commit to the grind, type of leadership. Perhaps some fans want more performative angst in down times (Cue short video of Justin Steele yelling into his mitt "WAKE THE F___ UP"), but over the course of 162+, those are the types I'd want to roll with.
  24. macarthur31
    Yeah - I watched that in real time, and I kinda winced a bit as I get Cole will get enthusiastic with some references (like referring to "The Fan" starring Robert DeNiro in the same postgame). However, it appeared that Elise jumped in quick enough to move the conversation forward. Unsure if this is the usual formatting on Marquee's youtube channel, but the posted postgame reaction video didn't have that "CareerBuilder"/LinkedIn comment on it. Cole, Elise and Cliff spent most of that segment trying to make sense of what happened. Cliff was being very nuanced in his commentary - not totally letting Mendoza off the hook, but also acknowledging that decisions can be easier in hindsight. What was most notable to me is at around the 8:10 mark that Cliff finally put his hands up, "I'm not beatin' that dude up...we trying to celebrate the Dub over here, not beatin' this cat up...they gonna do that on SNY." I intuit that Cliff from his own experience of competing in the league, and remembering how vulnerable as a player it is to be accountable, he's trying to be graceful and at least not take any joy from this situation.
  25. macarthur31
    Dude gets tons of grief, but I'm not putting that inning on him.
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