hawkeyecub

how the hell is Iowa number 8? Lost 3 games by a combined 9 points. Won every game big. In those 3 losses there were a combined 10 fumbles by them or the opposition. They recovered 0 of those 10. They've been fairly unlucky, went with the wrong QB to start the year and lost due to turnovers and red zone inefficiency in close games against decent teams. They've also played absolutely nobody. They have no business being ahead of a number of the teams that they're ahead of in the predictor rankings. The 3 losses are to #17, 21 and 22 in the Sagarin ratings. Two of those three were on the road. Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

Let me also add that Orton and the Bears passing game is MUCH better than I would have ever guessed coming into the year. We had the same defense today in 10 spots (all except MLB) that we had against Manning, Rdogers, Delhomme and Brees, even Kerry Collins. No one picked us apart over the middle the way Orton did. He rarely even threw to the outside, especially Winfield's way. He squeezed a few balls into tight spots but almost always seemed to find the right man and make the right decision. Again if you say we score 41 points and give up 53 yards rushing and lose...

You would probably bet the farm that if we gave up 41 we would lose this game going away... don't forget Booker's two dropped TDs either. Facts are we won a garbage game that we had to win and we're going to the bye week (which we badly need) in 1st place. nm:.... it appears you're a Vikes fan after reading your post again... Yeah I'm a Vikes fan. Not trying to be sour grapes and say we should have won the game either. We couldn't stop Orton and the passing game all day. Just fortunate they decided to run the ball the last two drives. Just frustrating that a couple fluke special teams touchdowns, some poor coaching on the kickoffs and what I felt (with admittedly biased eyes) was a terrible PI call, we lost by 7. I actually feel better about this loss than the Lions win last week. You got lucky to see the Bears with a secondary that wouldn't start on some college teams, otherwise it wouldn't have even been a close game. Okay. And you got lucky we were down to our 4th string MLB (and the other guy who backed him up was just acquired this week) and a rookie SS instead of our big money free agent pickup. And lucky that our #2 WR missed the game. Seriously if I were a Bears fan (or a Vikings fan who caught those plays in reverse) I wouldn't be playing that game. You got 14 points off of plays where the Bears had to do absolutely nothing to earn them. On top of that you got 7 points on an awful call. But because of those lucky plays, we were able to build up a 17 point lead, play in a prevent cover 2, and run the ball almost exclusively the last 3 possessions. You can't play that game either. The fact is, the game was played and the Bears won. This is also true and very fair. Just extremely frustrating to hand over points like that. If Hester gets a return or they get a block it's one thing. Those were just gift-wrapped.

how the hell is Iowa number 8? Lost 3 games by a combined 9 points. Won every game big. In those 3 losses there were a combined 10 fumbles by them or the opposition. They recovered 0 of those 10. They've been fairly unlucky, went with the wrong QB to start the year and lost due to turnovers and red zone inefficiency in close games against decent teams.

You would probably bet the farm that if we gave up 41 we would lose this game going away... don't forget Booker's two dropped TDs either. Facts are we won a garbage game that we had to win and we're going to the bye week (which we badly need) in 1st place. nm:.... it appears you're a Vikes fan after reading your post again... Yeah I'm a Vikes fan. Not trying to be sour grapes and say we should have won the game either. We couldn't stop Orton and the passing game all day. Just fortunate they decided to run the ball the last two drives. Just frustrating that a couple fluke special teams touchdowns, some poor coaching on the kickoffs and what I felt (with admittedly biased eyes) was a terrible PI call, we lost by 7. I actually feel better about this loss than the Lions win last week. You got lucky to see the Bears with a secondary that wouldn't start on some college teams, otherwise it wouldn't have even been a close game. Okay. And you got lucky we were down to our 4th string MLB (yes 4th string instead of a Pro Bowl caliber guy and the other guy who backed him up was just acquired this week) and a rookie SS instead of our big money free agent pickup. And lucky that our #2 WR missed the game. Seriously if I were a Bears fan (or a Vikings fan who caught those plays in reverse) I wouldn't be playing that game. You got 14 points off of plays where the Bears had to do absolutely nothing to earn them. On top of that you got 7 points on an awful call. Again I'm not trying to say we SHOULD have won the game. Our defense gave it up. But some of those plays were just like... come on

Sagarin Predictor Rankings 1. USC 2. Florida 3. Texas 4. Penn St 5. Oklahoma 6. TCU 7. Alabama 8. Iowa 9. Missouri 10. Georgia 11. Oklahoma St 12. Ohio St

You would probably bet the farm that if we gave up 41 we would lose this game going away... don't forget Booker's two dropped TDs either. Facts are we won a garbage game that we had to win and we're going to the bye week (which we badly need) in 1st place. nm:.... it appears you're a Vikes fan after reading your post again... Yeah I'm a Vikes fan. Not trying to be sour grapes and say we should have won the game either. We couldn't stop Orton and the passing game all day. Just fortunate they decided to run the ball the last two drives. Just frustrating that a couple fluke special teams touchdowns, some poor coaching on the kickoffs and what I felt (with admittedly biased eyes) was a terrible PI call, we lost by 7. I actually feel better about this loss than the Lions win last week.

I would have absolutely bet the farm that if we score 41 we win the game going away. Two special teams TD's that we completely handed to the Bears, giving them field position on the garbage pooch/squib kickoffs and a terrible pass interference call on 4th and goal. Ugh

In '04 White ran for 1.103 yards and Bush ran for 908. Hester ran for over 1,000 last year before the bowl game. So actually, only three of the last five have not had a 1,000 yard rusher and only three of the last seven have not. Yeah Oklahoma wasn't any good with Adrian Peterson. Nor was Michigan with Mike Hart. Cal was never good with Marshawn Lynch (or Arrington before that). Texas was never good with Cedric Benson. Those are just a few off the top of my head in the last 5 years. Unless your only idea of being "good" is winning the National Championship. Which you shouldn't necessarily feel since wins and losses are meaningless. The fact that you don't need a feature back to be good doesn't make them meaningless. You think Ohio State didn't miss Beanie? By the way there are 4 top 10 teams that will have 1,000 yard backs this year.

but not THE U go gophers I have never heard anyone call Minnesota the U. Probably cause they'd be too embarrassed that they were supporting a team called the Golden Gophers. I mean seriously? The U? That's what everyone calls them in Minnesota and the Twin Cities. When I lived there I only heard them called "The U" or the gophers/gophs. No one says Minnesota.

Perhaps but I disagree.

90-100 6-0 80-90 4-0 70-80 1-2 60-70 1-0 50-60 2-3 YTD 90-100 27-4 87% 80-90 18-1 95% 70-80 12-8 60% 60-70 5-4 56% 50-60 6-6 50% You need to post these earlier in the week so I can make some centsports money by going big on parlay's with the 80-100% confidence picks.

I may still be the only one who cares but Shonn Greene is the only back in the country to go for 100+ every game this year and first Big Ten back to go 8 straight games over 100 since Dayne in '98. 1,154 yards (144 a game) for the year with 6.5 ypc. 648 yards in 4 Big Ten games (162 a game) and again 6.5 ypc. Hasn't had a game with fewer than 5 ypc all year. 3rd in the country in rushing, only 25 yards from leading the country and the two guys in front of him (Ringer and Donald Brown) have 87 and 20 more rushes on the year. Yeah enough about Ringer. Too bad no one is noticing because they lost a few close games they should have won.

OK, where do the experts show him going in the draft exactly? The "experts" have no idea where anyone will get drafted at this point of the year and the good ones don't make deep projections because they know that. If he leaves, he'll be drafted by round 4 at the latest where he's an extremely safe bet to make the team. And because he's 23, obviously isn't a big fan of being a student and has little to gain next year by coming back, he will (should) likely enter. Barring extreme circumstance, I don't understand why you'd recommend a 4th rounder leave early. I personally think he'll go higher than that. I think that's a worst case scenario. The reason it would be recommended is that he's a running back and he's 23. I would recommend almost every running back who has a big season and NFL tools to get as much guaranteed money as you can when you can get it. The less mileage on your body, the better. If he comes back I suppose he can work on improving his receiving skills. He's already a good pass blocker for a RB, probably can't show a lot more as a runner and isn't likely to have a better o-line. Is that enough to offset being a 24 year old entering the draft, adding a few hundred more hits on his body and the risk of injury? Not in my opinion.

OK, where do the experts show him going in the draft exactly? The "experts" have no idea where anyone will get drafted at this point of the year and the good ones don't make deep projections because they know that. If he leaves, he'll be drafted by round 4 at the latest where he's an extremely safe bet to make the team. And because he's 23, obviously isn't a big fan of being a student and has little to gain next year by coming back, he will (should) likely enter.

i don't think many people thought iowa was terrible, except for overly-cynical iowa fans. And the resident Illinois fans.

I'm telling you right now, that "terrible" and "lousy" Iowa team will be the one to beat Penn State. Oh and it still looks crazy to say Shonn Greene will leave for the NFL doesn't it? 25 carries for 217 and 4 TD's against a very good run defense. Yes, lol indeed.

I would, but ESPN is televising some crap-filled ACC game instead. It's on Versus if you get it.

The cover-2 hasn't been solved. Well I guess you could say it has been solved because just like any other defense (zone or man or variations) everyone knows in theory how to beat it and everyone always has. Like all coverages it has it's strengths and weaknesses that are known. It's been around for a long time and will continue to be around for a long time (like cover 3, cover 4, cover 8, etc) because it's a sound defense. There is no perfect defense. The cover 2 is a good base defense which is dependent on personnel, execution and mixing things up at times.

The pass defense has been better than it was last year although I'm not sure why. The pass rush hasn't been much better and we're still without Madieu Williams (and have a rookie in his place) so Sharper is having to do too much and is in the twilight. Winfield is having maybe his best year ever and Griffin has been improved at the other corner. They're 6th in the NFC in passing yards allowed and have faced Rodgers, Manning, Brees and Delhomme. In 6 games they've allowed only 4 passing touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Only Brees and Manning went over 200 yards. This defense won't be as good against the run as they have been because Allen isn't as good as Udeze at stopping the run at DE and E.J. Henderson is a huge loss against the run at MLB. The defense has been outstanding considering the schedule and some of the spots they've been put in with an inconsistent offense and terrible coverage units on special teams. They'll either have to kick out of bounds all day or Hester will have at least one touchdown. I think the defense will be fine but am most worried about special teams, our o-line and continued red zone inefficiency and turnovers at the most inopportune times.

They've looked good for bits and pieces, but not consistently. The defense has been very good overall. Running game was rolling at times early and has gone a little stagnant recently. Passing game shows flashes but again no consistency. The Lions blitzed like mad yesterday and they weren't able to make them pay as much as they should have. The Bears can beat our tackles in pass rushing situations right now, especially if they send more than four. The Vikings will have to get the running game going again to have a legit offense. Allen has struggled at times this year. He's taken himself out of the run game with overpursuit and still has only 2 sacks. He has drawn a lot of attention though and they've gotten pressure by dropping him into coverage and then blitzing on the opposite side while the offense has slid protection to Allen's side. Kevin Williams got 4 sacks yesterday because he was 1-1 while the Lions put more attention on Allen. The Vikings defense should be able to keep it fairly low-scoring in my opinion. The defense isn't the same with E.J. Henderson out though. His backup (Heath Farwell) went out for the year in the preseason, the 3rd string MLB signed from the practice squad (Herron) got hurt yesterday and the 4th MLB (Ciurciu) cost us a 50 yard run. The Bears would do the Vikings a favor by running a lot of 3 WR sets so the Vikings go nickel and just have Leber and Greenway at LB.

Wow the Vikings played horribly today. I wasn't even worried about it being a trap game (especially with Kitna out) but the offense did not show up today. Two games in a row and they've gotten enormous breaks for wins which simply hasn't happened in my lifetime. This will be a close game. The Bears have been the better team but the Vikings defense has been great and Gus has at least help us develop a downfield attack. Berrian has really stepped it up since Frerotte took over. Hopefully Sidney Rice will be back so we have another legit threat. The real problem for the Vikings has been the offensive line and inconsistency with the running game. Cook (RT) was awful today and McKinnie appears out of shape and rusty.

that's because the Predictor column is based on margin of victory. Iowa has lost 3 close games but their 4 wins were complete blow outs Really? I had no idea.

Iowa is ranked 14th in the Predictor portion of Sagarin's ratings that Meph loves.

Why did OSU punt there instead of running around and taking the safety? Why didn't Maclin just dive ahead and give them a chance at the hail mary from the 45?