Sure, for this to work you'd have to bank on their 2024 replacement(s) to be good. Will Busch be good? PCA? Belli? Probably. Maybe. But so were those 3 last season. These theoretical steps cut all ways.
Last year's team was certainly an overperformer. At this time last year there weren't great expectations. The offense definitely surprised many in the first half of the season but there were obvious improvements to be made. It was a young team who started showing enough promise to force a GM into action. For which, we're still waiting (sorry, Jeimer). And that was with a resurgent, absolute monster Bellinger performance that almost nobody was predicting. This was never really a, "yeah, we're ready, let's go with it" situation. UPGRADES are needed. And meaningful ones. We've always known this.
Just to be clear, we're talking about Josh Hader. A single BP pitcher? Or one of the best CP in the game. Argue honestly. Josh Hader moves the needle.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml
Yep.
2023 MLB
Busch - 81 PA, 9-2-7, .167/.247/.292
Mervis - 99 PA, 8-3-11, .167/.242/.289
2023 Minors
Busch - 469 PA, 85-27-90, .323/.431/.618 (.274 in 2022)
Mervis - 441 PA, 77-22-78, .282/.399/.533 (.309 in 2022)
Busch had the better overall year but the ratios are very similar. Increase Mervis' overall production slightly and everything is a carbon copy. By the way, Busch's .323 is the highest of his career. He hit .270 over the previous 2 seasons.
The more you dig in, the comparison is actually kind of amazing...
Career Minors
Busch - 1640 PA, 292-79-267, .283/.390/.529 (4 seasons)
Mervis - 1322 PA, 209-67-241, .277/.370/.528 (3 seasons)
Pretty dang close. Eerily similar approach and production.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mervis000mat
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=busch-002mic