Illiterate Scholar
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Everything posted by Illiterate Scholar
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The number I've been thinking is something like a front loaded 4/114 with a player opt out or 2. 114 beats Lee by $1 million which Boras likes to do, so he can still claim Bellinger was the highest paid CF of the off-season or whatever.
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If not the Giants or Cubs, I wonder where the heck Chapman would go. I know he almost always does, but I don't see how Boras can possibly pull this off where all 4 of the remaining big guys get legit long term deals.
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I can't believe Jed didn't offer a great player on another team $300 million. Classic conservative Jed
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As a baseball player (ignoring roster fit, though he still fits) for 2024 and beyond, I think I like Montgomery the most of the Boras 4, so I wouldn't complain if Jed ended up shifting focus to him. The offense would probably end up a bat short, but I'd feel really good about the pitching.
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I feel like a portion of Cubs fans are the only group that still views Mervis as a potential solution. It's the prospect lists, neutral observers, and the Cubs FO that seemingly has their doubts.
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If he re-signs with the Cubs, I'll be surprised if it's low AAV. I fully expect something like 3 years/90-100 million with opt outs after each year. Maybe the Angels give him a long term deal or something, but I don't think Jed will.
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It's interesting how quick Jed's been to point at 1B for Busch; I figured he was gonna talk a little more about versatility. It does make the fit of 2 more bats a little harder to picture. There's Chapman who obviously wouldn't be a 1B/DH but he's not necessarily a "crush right handed pitching" guy.
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How about a Ted Lilly comp for Imanaga. Minus some walks, innings, and tax evasions.
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If any part of this remaining process requires Imanaga traveling to, say, Chicago, weather could be slowing it down. I would think we'd still hear about a decision prior to being finalized though.
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I've been thinking about that as well. Specifically if the Cubs actually prefer Chapman over Bellinger because of batted ball metrics and realistic internal options at 3B vs CF (which I think could be the case), then Cody might be screwed, relatively speaking.
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I'm actually kind of into this. No he's not a great fit for this roster as a LF/DH only, but if the Cubs believe in the bat and the likelihood of him settling in in year 2 in the states (he was really good in the first half, maybe some MLB travel fatigue got him?) I say go for it. Steamer has him projected for a 120 wRC next season. He wouldn't cost much in prospects and with the Sox including some money, his contact wouldn't be crazy either. The Cubs would probably need to have some confidence Morel could play 1B in this scenario if he's on the team (I do not believe 3B is realistic).
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Illiterate Scholar replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Good breakdown. As you mentioned previously, Jed is probably in a good spot for the position players. There's enough competition for the top remaining starting pitchers that I'm not super confident that free agency will solve that need. Hopefully that's where he can finally get creative in a trade and not just settle for a Hosmer/Mancini starting pitcher equivalent. -
I've been surprised as well that Hoskins hasn't signed yet since he's not a 9 figure guy. And with the way people were tweeting about it at the meetings, it certainly felt like there would be a match with him and the Cubs. I'm thinking the holdup is Jed wants to do something like last year's Bellinger deal and Boras is looking for the Conforto deal (~2/36 with a player opt out).
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Maybe this is a pointless game to play with Jed as he might be willing to draw a line in the sand no matter the situation, but I wonder if the main holdup now is Imanaga who supposedly will do some visits after Jan 1 (and importantly has a firm deadline to make a decision). Whether or not he lands him could impact how he values targets from the Guardians for example. If he doesn't do anything before the new year, I'm going with that theory. Assuming Bellinger will also take awhile.
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It's in the specific scenario of re-signing Bellinger to a longish term deal and not wanting to move him to 1B for a majority of the contract. For reference, Steamer projects someone like Hoskins, who will probably get 1-2 years, to be a better hitter in 2024 than Bellinger. If Bellinger's price gets to Jed's comfort zone for 6-7 years (a 2022 Correa-type contract is a different scenario) then that is why we're bringing up PCA; not because he looked bad for a week in the majors, but because he would bring back a lot in return and we signed a CFer long term.
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No, that is not anyone's reasoning.
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Something like a short-term high AAV Bellinger deal, Hoskins, and trading for Bieber puts the payroll around 250 million. And that's before adding to the bullpen and another starter, though maybe Jed is fine with Wicks/Assad battling for the 5 spot. I'd understand any skepticism, but I could see Tom being OK with a 260-265 with that much tied up in short term deals.
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Yeah I think that Kiermaier news hurts our chances on Chapman (who I was kinda into) and has to increase the Bellinger odds (who I hadn't been treating as a real option until now and does concern me a bit). If there is a Bellinger reunion, I think I'd be in favor of using PCA as a trade piece. I'm guessing here but if Morel is on the block, I could see the Cubs valuing him more than other teams and struggling to find a match (Cubs looking at his power and team control, other teams looking at all of his flaws). PCA on the other hand, is pretty much a lock to bring back something kinda awesome like Lazardo or maybe PCA plus a non-Horton pitcher for Clase, Bieber, and Naylor.
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Those 4 averaged like 4 war a piece last year. Some of the comments I've seen here and other places, I think there's a decent amount of Cubs fans that underrate the parts this team has in place. No, it's not the 1-3 of the Dodgers' order, but this is a legitimately good starting point.
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Brett is theorizing that Boras is trying to push the Cubs to give a little more on Hoskins. If we do end up signing him, I feel like Morel is destined to be a Guardian.
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Like everything he says, it's not totally clear. I am still expecting them to go over with how careful they were at the deadline last season in a competitive year. And by all measures, this was better than an 83 win team. However, apparently bowing out of Yamamoto before the courting even begins (even if I think that contract will be a bit silly) and the way the descriptions of the Glasnow and Hoskins pursuits seemingly shifted, I'd be lying if I'm not a little concerned that like the Athletic guys will hint at a lower payroll than expected in an upcoming article.
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What if the non-Ohtani offseason plan includes staying under the first CBT threshold? That's not happening, right..
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Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money
Illiterate Scholar replied to JD94's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Bruce still out here trying to pretend he didn't go from "it's down to the Cubs and Dodgers" to "jk, he actually never considered the Cubs" -
Jed and Carter basically told us if they had control over the Dominican league lineup, they would've had Morel play first base. They don't think he can play third; it is obvious.
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I'm annoyed. I guess I was expecting this though since the Cubs connections seemed to die down after Ohtani signed. I assume Jed held firm and is patting himself on the back for not slightly overpaying for the exact type of pitcher this team needs. Time to cast more lines or whatever stupid fish analogy he used at the Winter Meetings.
