Illiterate Scholar
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Everything posted by Illiterate Scholar
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Sharma and Mooney put out an opening day roster article this morning. Of note, they have Cooper as the favorite among the NRIs to make it. The most interesting part to me was them writing Wesneski is not viewed as likely to make the rotation, even with Taillon on the IL; instead, it will likely be Smyly or Assad.
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I'd still be a little surprised if he's actually the starting 3rd baseman on opening day with Steele on the mound. I suspect he'll play 3rd when Imanaga pitches, as it appears he doesn't need infielders. The rest, I'm not so sure.
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There's still a few very DFA-able pitchers but I wonder if Tauchman could be on the move. Feels like he'd have a little more value to another team - Padres maybe? Mervis is in the lineup for this afternoon so that makes it seem like he's not getting traded today. Also Busch hasn't played yet, so I wonder if he's dealing with a little something and they may want to hold onto Mervis for a little longer.
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Man this is a great deal for the Cubs. This fits perfectly for what is needed short term. The way Jed operates can be frustrating and lacks entertainment value but he certainly has a knack for signing good players on his terms. Side note, there was a lot of talk about how he was the cheapest of the 4 SS, and while obviously true, the fact that Jed and Co gave Dansby 7/177 shows how highly they must think of him given how reluctant they seem to be to hand those type of deals out.
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The glove Alcantara is wearing is one of the coolest things I've seen on a baseball field.
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Pete Crow-ArmstrongCade HortonMatt ShawOwen CaissieMichael BuschKevin AlcantaraJordan WicksMoises BallesterosJefferson RojasBen BrownJames TriantosJaxon WigginsMatt MervisLuis VazquezJosh RiveraAlexander CanarioBJ Murray JrLuke LittleDrew GrayMichael Arias
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I read that and take it to mean they're not going over the tax. So for rest-of-offseason scenarios we're looking at either 1) Bellinger or Chapman only or 2) one of the DHs + Stanek?
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I like Assad for the 5th spot out of spring. It allows Wesneski to try to figure out lefties for a bit in AAA and Wicks can have a lighter workload in Iowa for the first month or two. Regarding Assad, I know some of the numbers don't like him as much as his ERA, but I was legitimately impressed with him toward the end of season in the rotation before he was inexplicably removed. He throws a lot of pitches and gets GBs, and I'm a big fan of his 2 seam/cutter combo. If there was a pitcher getting by on smoke and mirrors last season, it was more Wicks to me than Assad.
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The number I've been thinking is something like a front loaded 4/114 with a player opt out or 2. 114 beats Lee by $1 million which Boras likes to do, so he can still claim Bellinger was the highest paid CF of the off-season or whatever.
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If not the Giants or Cubs, I wonder where the heck Chapman would go. I know he almost always does, but I don't see how Boras can possibly pull this off where all 4 of the remaining big guys get legit long term deals.
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I can't believe Jed didn't offer a great player on another team $300 million. Classic conservative Jed
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As a baseball player (ignoring roster fit, though he still fits) for 2024 and beyond, I think I like Montgomery the most of the Boras 4, so I wouldn't complain if Jed ended up shifting focus to him. The offense would probably end up a bat short, but I'd feel really good about the pitching.
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I feel like a portion of Cubs fans are the only group that still views Mervis as a potential solution. It's the prospect lists, neutral observers, and the Cubs FO that seemingly has their doubts.
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If he re-signs with the Cubs, I'll be surprised if it's low AAV. I fully expect something like 3 years/90-100 million with opt outs after each year. Maybe the Angels give him a long term deal or something, but I don't think Jed will.
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It's interesting how quick Jed's been to point at 1B for Busch; I figured he was gonna talk a little more about versatility. It does make the fit of 2 more bats a little harder to picture. There's Chapman who obviously wouldn't be a 1B/DH but he's not necessarily a "crush right handed pitching" guy.
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How about a Ted Lilly comp for Imanaga. Minus some walks, innings, and tax evasions.
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If any part of this remaining process requires Imanaga traveling to, say, Chicago, weather could be slowing it down. I would think we'd still hear about a decision prior to being finalized though.
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I've been thinking about that as well. Specifically if the Cubs actually prefer Chapman over Bellinger because of batted ball metrics and realistic internal options at 3B vs CF (which I think could be the case), then Cody might be screwed, relatively speaking.
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I'm actually kind of into this. No he's not a great fit for this roster as a LF/DH only, but if the Cubs believe in the bat and the likelihood of him settling in in year 2 in the states (he was really good in the first half, maybe some MLB travel fatigue got him?) I say go for it. Steamer has him projected for a 120 wRC next season. He wouldn't cost much in prospects and with the Sox including some money, his contact wouldn't be crazy either. The Cubs would probably need to have some confidence Morel could play 1B in this scenario if he's on the team (I do not believe 3B is realistic).
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So uhhhh who's going to sign all these free agents?
Illiterate Scholar replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Good breakdown. As you mentioned previously, Jed is probably in a good spot for the position players. There's enough competition for the top remaining starting pitchers that I'm not super confident that free agency will solve that need. Hopefully that's where he can finally get creative in a trade and not just settle for a Hosmer/Mancini starting pitcher equivalent. -
I've been surprised as well that Hoskins hasn't signed yet since he's not a 9 figure guy. And with the way people were tweeting about it at the meetings, it certainly felt like there would be a match with him and the Cubs. I'm thinking the holdup is Jed wants to do something like last year's Bellinger deal and Boras is looking for the Conforto deal (~2/36 with a player opt out).
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Maybe this is a pointless game to play with Jed as he might be willing to draw a line in the sand no matter the situation, but I wonder if the main holdup now is Imanaga who supposedly will do some visits after Jan 1 (and importantly has a firm deadline to make a decision). Whether or not he lands him could impact how he values targets from the Guardians for example. If he doesn't do anything before the new year, I'm going with that theory. Assuming Bellinger will also take awhile.
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It's in the specific scenario of re-signing Bellinger to a longish term deal and not wanting to move him to 1B for a majority of the contract. For reference, Steamer projects someone like Hoskins, who will probably get 1-2 years, to be a better hitter in 2024 than Bellinger. If Bellinger's price gets to Jed's comfort zone for 6-7 years (a 2022 Correa-type contract is a different scenario) then that is why we're bringing up PCA; not because he looked bad for a week in the majors, but because he would bring back a lot in return and we signed a CFer long term.
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No, that is not anyone's reasoning.
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Something like a short-term high AAV Bellinger deal, Hoskins, and trading for Bieber puts the payroll around 250 million. And that's before adding to the bullpen and another starter, though maybe Jed is fine with Wicks/Assad battling for the 5 spot. I'd understand any skepticism, but I could see Tom being OK with a 260-265 with that much tied up in short term deals.
