neely crenshaw

Wouldn't this be equally/or more chilling about Rizzo, who has already had parts of 3 seasons under his belt at could be plateauing at his performance: Or Castro for that matter. As for Lake, are these peripherals similar to what he had in the minors? If so, then he can certainly post similar stats. If not, then you may be right about it being a red flag. His babip is very high, so that has to fall but he also could adjust some of his misses with seeing pitchers more often and having more scouting on what they may be doing to him out there. It would certainly be helpful if he's able to be decent/solid

I think the team is better if Olt can play a solid 3b and we can platoon Barney/Valbuena at 2nd. Even in a terrible overall year Barney posted .284- .337ob with an .805 ops vs lefties, and Valbuena was .217 -.333ob with a .715 ops vs righties. Valbuena really fell off but he and Barney could be very valuable as a combo. On a side note word is that Boston will resign Drew for a 3 year deal and Bogarts will be moved to third. Middlebrooks will be moved. Thoughts on his value to us as a 3b, obviously the FO knows all about him. Pros: He is 25. He had a pretty solid year in 2012..battled injuries last year. He was ok defensively..between +.2 and -.2 dwar, and was 1.2 war(Valbuena was 1.6 last year) for his career. His Minor league stats were similar to his 2012 stats. He is under control until 2019 and not eligible for arbitration until 2016. There are no true options for quick help at 3b Cons: Boston is said to want young pitching in return, He's been injured and is not a completely proven commodity. Olt and Bryant may have more upside in the near future. Would it be worth using any assets simply to be slightly better next year, if he isn't a long term piece?

Any young player is an unknown until the produce at the major league level. It's a big step. history is full of can't miss prospects you never get over the hump....the 4A player if you will. So yes, I understand that there is and should be a question as to what we have in Lake. I just see stats that are very steady all the way through the minors and think there is a solid chance he'll post something similar when he is up. He may be streaky, but if he posts .750 OPS, he posts .750 OPS. Heck on this team if he can post .700 in first full season at 23, he's a good addition and could improve from there. Also you should have questions whether every player on our team will reach their mediocre norms. and .284 with.760 OPs for 64 games is a poor year? I realize it's small sample size but Rizzo had all of 87 games, and no one talked about that being not being "real".

I don't get the negative on Lake. He's 23. He has hit at every level of the minors..pretty much at the same rate=270 to 300 BA with 750 ops. His first year at A and AA were a little lower but he rebounded the next and posted his career norms. He had a nice small sample in his first run in the bigs. Why is it crazy to think he can't progress to his minor league norms? He may not but it's not crazy by any stretch. He is very athletic, he will certainly get better as an outfielder with experience. As a poster said earlier, we are in a perfect spot to see exactly what he is. I don't think there is a player on the roster that we shouldn't have serious questions/worries about what we will get from them, so we can do is hope for the best.

I think Olt gets a shot to hold 3rd, If he can hold it down, then Barney/Valbueno is potentially a great platoon at 2nd based on their splits. Same with Right or center with Ruggiano. It's potentially much better than last year. The problem with your projections is no one in the lineup has ever posted an .800 ops in a full season, So it seems hard to say that's going to happen next year.

So Trumbo did not play in a pitchers park and BOB isn't a hitters park? He didn't slump in the second half after Pujols went down? We will find out about the ops...if the numbers play out by park(+8%) that's 60+ point rise off of last years down stats..still above .800 Take it off the .808 of the year before and he's pushing .870 Except for the fact that it's me saying it, it's not a stretch Heck, we're hoping/planning that our guy jumps 60 points without even switching parks.. It also would make sense that working on playing just one position will help his defense, it may never be great but better. If he hits like he should, it'll more than worth it. You have a team that was .500, missed the playoffs by 9 games while posting an offense that was 18th in slugging, 14th in runs while playing in an offensive friendly park. They sent a guy who in 7 starts posted a 5.12 era. At 22 he may have some upside but he just wasn't in their plans barring an injury. Trumbo is replacing Cody Ross and Kubel from last year, who hardly set the world on fire (0.3 and -0.7 war). Like it or not even without the possible improvement, they are a better team right now than they were last year.

You gave up a "punch and judy" center fielder who was playing left and a young lefty who was never going to break into your rotation. You are basing value on stats from pitchers park(-5%) and he is going to a hitters park(+3%). You are also basing this on his last season where he slumped badly the 2nd half when Pujols went down and Hamilton never showed up. Maybe it's a trend, maybe it's an anomaly. I'd be willing to bet that he posts better stats than anyone returning to the cubs next season. I'm sure he'll post .800 ops, If they were to lose 120 it wouldn't be because of this trade. Skaggs is a change up pitcher who will benefit from being in Anaheim, as will Santiago but he probably wasn't ever going to be the type of pitcher that pitches well in Arizona.They also have 2 better lefties, and 2 other better young starters already in the rotation If war is your stat- fangraphs has eaton at -0.5 and Trumbo in a bad year at 2.6 I guess we will see...

I think his stats dropped partially because of this his walks actually dropped. He had only 20 of 54 the last 3 months. I think he may have been pressing because no one else was doing anything and he thought he had to hit no matter where he was pitched. Never know, I think it's a pretty good gamble for Arizona. They have to try to catch LA and they need offense badly. He could put up some nice numbers and he'll be added protection behind Goldschmidt.

For the record.. Arizona was bad offensively,especially in slugging despite having Goldschmidt. They have a very good and young starting staff(23,24,25,27 and 30) including their top 2 being lefties. Collmenter is also in the pen at 27 and has had success as a starter. Starting Pitching was a strength. They gave up a young lefty who struggled, and has lost velocity plus Eaton who is basically the same outfielders as Pollack, who already plays center. Trumbo played 4 different positions over the last 2 years, he will undoubtedly get better playing just LF. He averaged 30+ hrs 95 rbi over three seasons in a huge pitcher friendly park. His walks have gone up every season, including 54 last season- Rizzo had 76. It's mind boggling to see the emphasis put on 1 more walk every 8 games for a middle of the order power bat. There is a very good chance his stats will go up in Arizona-40 hrs, and .800 ops should be a good bet. He is under club control until 2017. With good defenders Parra and Pollack playing the other 2 spots, and Prado being allowed to just play 3rd, They will be more than adequate defensively. They had a need, they gave up two players that were pretty disposable for them.

I just have to ask. Do you seriously thinks that the argument is about whether you can write Rizzo in as "the 3rd hitter" in the line-up on a competitive team? When I say someone is a middle of the order bat, he is your guy. your main stick, the guy you depend. I do not mean he simply is written down in the middle of your order. He is your Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Ortiz, McCutcheon or Davis. Of course you can write in Darwin Barney at number 3 if your lineup is good enough around him. That's not the point. This is so much like the argument where someone said Jackson can't be our #2 and the point was made that he can if 3-4-5 all perform better than him.

How is Boston competing with Pedroia's numbers? It's been made very clear to you by every other poster that the team needs better players in order to compete. Pedroia proves a player batting third with an OPS less than .820 can be competitive if there are good players surrounding that player. Can we just let this arguement end? Probably because Ortiz is sporting a .960 ops behind him, or that Carp/Nava sport an .850, or Victorino at .809, Saltalamacchia at .803. Also this is not a normal year for Pedroria. He was at .860 in 2010 and 2011 before injury. Even so in that scenario, Ortiz is their main bat, you would compare Rizzo to him. Certainly you could compete with a guy having a .600 ops hitting 3rd, if you drop a couple .900's at 4 and 5. Exactly where do you plan on these 4-5 bats coming from, and when do you suppose they'll get here. I'm talking now, and near future not some fairy tale.

It's hard to say when you don't know exactly how the market will play out. It's certainly not a strong field of pitchers but there are Arroyo(3.60), Burnett(3.30) and Nolasco(3.70), who all have been very good I would like to see them go after the Johan(Ervin) Santana(3.14) or Jorge Del La Rosa. Santana was very good this year, and had a rough year last season, but had 2 very good years before that. KC plays a similar style to the cubs with defense being their game so I could see a similar output especially coming to the NL. He is older than Sanchez(30) so I am hoping/thinking he would come in under that deal and get something closer to Jackson money..so 50-60 mil Del La Rosa was pretty awesome in colorado posting 3.49 and 3.51 in 2011 and 2013. Out with an injury for 2012, he bounced back nicely, he is on the DL but it's with a bruised thumb. I would really prefer to look at offensive options. Cano would be ideal but they are talking 300 mil Choo or Ellsbury would be good additions especially at the top of the order. Aoki has an option but he would be a similar but cheaper option. Maybe a flyer on Granderson, if his injuries drop his cost. He could be another .800 plus OPS guy at wrigley maybe even return to that .900 level of 2011 "That guy" Hunter Pence could be a decent option also. He is right handed, and sports a career ops of .813 both of which we need. Coming from SF his totals could also see a jump over the past season also. This might be influenced by what they think about Lake's future. Based on last years costs on deals like Bourn,Pagan and Hunter, which were 3-5 years and in the 12-15mil/year range, with them all being early 30's, maybe 3- 4 years and 55-70 mil for the top names, less for Pence or Aoki. Never know, but maybe 120 mil would get you Del La Rosa or Santana/Choo or Ellsbury. Although Tanaka at 25 would be around longer than these names, at 32 and 30, you could reason to get a solid 4 years out of them maybe 5 for Santana. It's probably a toss up as to who performs better but if you can sign one of them for slightly more than what the bid is for his rights, it seems to make more sense to leave that money to add a bat. Jessie Crain is also out there as another set up guy. If you're convinced Strop is the guy, it might be a nice situation to have Russell-Crain leading into the 9th. We could also grab Rajai Davis as our RH platoon OF. He would probably cost less than Scheirholtz, He has ridiculous stolen base numbers and batting stats vs LH pitchers(.889 ops this year, .300 ba/.786ops for his career) He could be a very nice compliment to Nate. So if we add Crain and Davis for maybe 6-7 mil a year more, we have a pretty nice haul for for somewhere between 20-35 mil more than what you look to pay Tanaka including his bid (100-120) Actually closer could bring some interesting (and maybe good) names. You have injured guys like Madsen,Betancourt and Hanrahan probably available and probably somewhat cheap.

DHNY Cub fan- When a large part of your war comes from defense, which is the case and will always be the case with Rizzo, 4.0 does not make you a good candidate for a 3 hitter. Darwin Barney posted a 4.7 last season...not a 3 hitter. As I said I am not talking about his total value to the team, I am simply talking about his offensive ability and how that fits in our lineup. Simply talking about a player hitting in the middle of the order, and about Rizzo "maybe"bringing it up to a .820 OPS: The fact is for every playoff team for the last 3 seasons, none had a #3 guy hitting that low - not 1. So if we want to be a playoff team that simply isn't good enough regardless of how well he plays defense. I can't quote anyone saying "the cubs are a playoff team if this happens " that's true. However there are several(including you) who continue to argue that at this proposed offensive performance, he is a middle of the order bat for the cubs. So either you guys are saying "we would compete with that type of performance" or you are fine with the cubs never competing. As for a 4 war guy hitting 3rd for pretty much any team. At that proposed level, would he hit 3rd for LA, St.Louis,Cincy,Pittsburgh,Atlanta? I'll stop because you know the answer. A better question would be if he did put up an .820, other than us who would he hit 3rd for? San Diego? Houston? Seattle? maybe the Sox. He'd be valuable (and he is) but he would not hit 3rd for very many teams even at that output.

There are 11-13 4 win 1B in baseball? What an age we live in. in fairness, they really need to adjust replacement level so it stops assuming that a replacement first baseman would be a ghost and the ball would just float through him when the shortstop threw it over No, there are 11-14 .820 ops guys at 1b plus many others that are young and ahead of Rizzo in OPS. We are talking about him being a middle of the order bat. I am not disputing his overall value but on this current team he is the main bat. Was he great on D this year? yep Did we come close to contending?nope

Looking at the rest of the Pirate lineup, getting through Walker-McCutchen-Morneau-Jones was more important. I really hope it is that and not Sveum giving in to Gregg's crybaby antics but I doubt it. In the long run getting through that part of the lineup gives a better indication of what he can do,rather than simply being the guy who pitched the last inning. I know there is now a 'hold" stat but MLB really should look at such things in the "save" stat scenario. Not sure why more managers don't use their "closer" against the heart of the order regardless of it being the 8th or 9th.

And isn't the word out there the posting could be higher because of the market? Tiger, I think I am just worried that this will be it for signings, and if it is, we are not much better than this year..and possibly worse. There is no guarantee he pitches any better than Garza and Feldmen did the first half. I understand long term it could be a very good deal, I just am not ready for another season done by July. I guess I am hoping we do things that will help next year. I still believe many people get all worked up over the "new" name out there when they really have no idea what they would actually be getting. I stand by the idea that no one would be clamoring to drop this much cash on the same type of pitcher that was currently in the league. I think because of the unknown they can automatically imagine greatness as opposed to known commodity.

I don't know how we argue generational(what is generational, and what is his generation) but he sure hasn't been so far, and with the amount of young talent out there, it will be tough. A number 3 hitting first baseman posting an .820 OPS is good but not great. Leon Durham had a .831 career OPS, he is not considered great. I guess those are bad arguments because I'm right? I clearly never said the cubs couldn't be contenders, I, once again, simply said that how quickly and how much he improves directly correlates to how quickly the cubs rebound. As for bouncing around perhaps that is from having to defend my stance against posters who would rather talk mis-spelling shin-soo choo instead of the point of the argument.

So Mr. Careless, instead being an ass. Tell me do you think we contend if Rizzo posts an .820 next year. I have put out a very simple argument, if we would like to contend next year we need Rizzo (or someone else) to be much,much better and although .820 or so would be a nice but that alone won't get it done. I just had to answer such powerful arguments as: Do you know how few players posted .850? Rizzo is an all star if he has an .820ops Allen Craig was an all star at .830ops this year Hunter pence, Adam LaRoche and Adam Jones aren't that guy The problem is that you can't argue the point so you simply try to argue with me. It's really an irrefutable point, contending teams don't have middle of the order hitters with that type of performance. Admit it or not, we all expected more from Rizzo and to be a good team we need better than average, or even good. We need him to be very good to great, at least until he gets some help. I still have not read one poster say this is the type of year they had in mind for Rizzo...

Obviously we don't know what the bid may be, but they are talking 50-60 mil. Then exactly how many years will it take to sign him? "IF" it's only 6 that puts in the 110-120 range "IF" we can get him at 10 mil a year. With the market serious in favor of the players, 10 mil might be light. In this situation they seem to hold all of the cards. I still think it's a gamble for this type of player. I have trouble over paying for a guy who isn't the best, but simply the best available currently. I think if we do go all out and get him, it tells me we are waiting another year before we try to put a contending team on the field. I guess I don't want to think about that possibility yet.

It really doesn't matter what YOU think of certain players, what matters is they put up those numbers and their teams won. Never, ever called any of them "that guy". I said you either have to have "that guy" or a bunch of guys above .800. I don't mean this as an indictment of Rizzo. I am simply being honest about the team we have, and probably will put out next year. Bottom line is Rizzo has not been good enough this year, and simply jumping up to .820 next won't help this team win. You can say you are ok with his play, but honestly this is nothing like you expected out of him for this season. It's certainly not what anyone had hoped for. I

Someone spent 88 million on Sanchez, and he's 4 years older than Tanaka. There's a very real chance that Tanaka will command a similar price tag and not the 100 million you're putting out there as a baseline. Teams know he isn't Yu Darvish, but that doesn't mean he's not worth a hefty investment. Also, 100 million over 6 years(like Darvish's deal length), is less per year than Sanchez's 5/88 deal, which has an option to make it 6/99. I am looking at the whole investment not just the contract. I'm thinking the bid to negotiate may be higher than darvish because of the lack of options out there and the fact that the yankees, and perhaps angels will be involved. I am sure there will be many suitors, I am just very worried that if he is our main target this off-season, he might be our only target. Which means we are waiting another year to be even mediocre. Hey,if they get him, bullpen help and a big bat or 2, awesome. I just don't see that coming. Real question, how much do you see the cubs spending this off-season?

If you read earlier I clearly said he was young and could improve. I simply said how quickly and how much directly correlates to how quickly we rebuild. Evidently that's blasphemy. I also said I'm not sure we have seen anything that indicates he'll ever be a .900 or better guy(made the mistake of saying 1.000) I would love for him to be an .850 guy, and he may. I just don't see how it will be next year, and without that I don't see how we have the offense to compete. As my stat work shows, a team with 1 guy above .800 does not contend.

Welcome to the conversation! it was more like 20 minutes but OK Evidently that's news(needing good players) to many on this thread

Did some quick research only went back to 2011, but maybe later I'll continue. We know what the stats were for 2013 2011- world series champ St. Louis-3 guys above .900 Berkman, Holiday,Beltran. Molina at .814 runner up Texas, 6 starters above .821- Napoli 1.041, Hamilton .882, Beltre .892 playoff teams- MIL 2 guys above .981, Philly- 3 guys above .835, Pence at .871 Ariz- 3 guys above .808- Upton .898 NYY- 3 guys above .835 -Granderson .916 Det- Cabrera 1.073..2 others above .845 2012 World series Champ San Fran-Posey .957, melky .906(for awhile) scutaro .857 and 3 others just under .800 runner up Det- Cabrera .999 Fielder .941 playoff teams- Ny- Cano .929, 3 others above .800 plus Jeter at .791 Oak, 3 above .861 Cespedes,Moss, Gomes Balt- 3 above .827, Jones tops at .837 Tex-Hamilton .930 Beltre .921. 2 other above .800 Wash- 5 starters above .815. La Roche tops at .853 Cin- 4 starters above .829 Votto at 1.014 So every playoff team for the last 3 seasons has had "that guy" plus more. The world series teams all had guys well over .900 but we are set to contend with a .820 OPS in our number 3 hitter. So in real terms tell me how that works? Another sad thing is you are arguing about a hypothetical situation because we don't even now if he can.will put up those kind of stats.

Yeah, that's definitely what everyone here has been saying. You nailed it. Sorry for thinking we all are wanting to succeed. He is dead on, If Rizzo jumps to an .820 OPS he can certainly be our middle of the order bat. Of course we still be losing 90 games, but that's obviously fine. Now if your plan says we get Stanton to hit behind him, then I'll agree. Until something is added, you can't simply say he's fine at that rate, because the stats say differently.