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champaignchris

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Everything posted by champaignchris

  1. champaignchris
    24 of the next 34 are against teams with losing records. 22 of the next 31 are at home. It's time to put the pedal to the metal. I'd love to go into the last 19 games of the season with a magic number of about 12, and looking at the Cubs', Cardinals', and Brewers' schedules, that's not out of the range of possibility.
  2. champaignchris
    I'd keep the guy with the 2-something ERA and then trade the 16 win guy to the Twin's GM for some offense. Think he'd be willing to part with Morneau? But seriously, he could've restructured the argument a bit... For example, which would you rather have for a middle of the rotation starter? Pitcher A: 160 IP, 2.95 ERA Pitcher B: 220 IP, 4.55 ERA The answer probably depends on how deep your bullpen is and how good (and reliable) your first couple of starters are. But still, it's worth a discussion.
  3. champaignchris
    The accusation is at least as old as Leo Durocher, and if it were true and actually gave the Cubs a competitive advantage, you'd think they'd have won a World Series by now.
  4. champaignchris
    In my opinion, the problem with Marquis is not that he's our 4th or 5th starter or that he's a bad pitcher compared to other 4th or 5th starters. The problem is that he's being paid like a 2nd or 3rd starter. Compare: Marquis 6-4 84.1 IP 4.96 ERA $6.3 million Dave Bush 4-7 85.2 IP 4.94 ERA $2.5 million Shawn Chacon (before he tried to kill his GM) 2-3 85.2 IP 5.04 ERA $2 million Andrew Miller 5-6 81.2 IP 5.07 ERA $2.2 million Brandon Backe 5-8 89.2 IP 4.82 ERA $800,000 I suppose to be fair to Marquis, I could cite the performances of some folk like Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, Kevin Millwood, and Paul Byrd and their contracts. But then all those guys had a significantly better track record (except maybe Byrd) prior to this year.
  5. champaignchris
    The answer to the OP's question is Chipper Jones and A-Rod. The interesting thing is that A-Ram is still only 29 years old... 7 years younger than Chipper and 3 years younger than A-Rod. Over the next three or four years A-Ram is going to be one of the best two 3Bs in baseball. Chipper is inevitably going to start going through his end of (very good probably HOF) career decline and is probably only a couple years away from spending the rest of his career as a 1B or DH.
  6. champaignchris
    That was one of the more bizarre fights I've ever seen. Kemp swings at a ball in the dirt that the catcher just has to knock down. Kemp then dithers around the plate for a second before turning his back and slowly walking toward the dugout. Once the catcher gets the ball under control, he takes a step and tags Kemp out instead of throwing it down to first. Kemp then turns around and shoves the catcher. Fight ensues. It certainly didn't look like the catcher said anything to Kemp. So I don't know what Kemp's problem was. Generally you don't deck the defender after he tags you out (excepting when it's A.J. Pierzynski, of course).
  7. champaignchris
    I guess if you want to make the Moyer = longevity despite mediocrity argument, you could point out that he has the highest number of innings pitched for someone with a career ERA over 4. But still, I think Moyer's performance from '96 to '03 speaks for itself. The two really remarkable things about his career is how long he flailed around before really becoming a good pitcher in his 30's, and then how long he's been able to stick in the bigs into his 40's. Other candidates: David Wells Kenny Rogers Mike Morgan Terry Mulholland
  8. champaignchris
    The Cubs' record might be inflated due to where they've played, with 11 or 12 more on the road than at home. (Oddly though, if recent history is any indication, the Cubs' haven't had much of a home field advantage. During the last few seasons, they've had nearly identical home and road records -3 game difference last year, 6 games difference in 2006, 3 games better on the road in 2005, 1 game difference in 2004, same record in 2003 - that's a total of only 7 games better record at home over a five year period. That indicates to me that although their torrid pace at home is going to fall off, they are in all likelihood going to start winning more games on the road.) However, their record isn't inflated due to who they've played. The Cubs' opponents' win% is just under .500 and ranks 13th in the Majors. The Cardinals' opponents' win% is .489 and ranks 27th in the majors. There are legitimate reasons to suspect that the Cubs might not be as good as their record indicates. A good sportswriter would have written about them rather than made stuff up.
  9. champaignchris
    And which is worse? The years where they're competitive and then fold? Or years like 2000, 2002, and 2006 (arguably the worst team in Cubs history) where they simply aren't competitive in any respect?
  10. champaignchris
    I was 11 for the 1985 season. I think that's the year I first really realized what it meant to be a Cubs fan. All five starting pitchers on the DL at once? Unreal. That 1999 season was also brutal. The 1998 team was back, basically intact except for an injured Woody. And they just fell apart with the Sox series. I think it was a case of too many old guys who couldn't repeat the previous year's performance. They went 6-20 during one stretch, falling from a game back to 8.5 back. 2001 was another one. They just fell apart in San Diego and never recovered. 62-43, 4.5 games up at the end of July. Go 22-32 the rest of the way to finish 5 games out. If anyone really needs to relive the 2004 season, Gene Wojciechowski's book, Cubs Nation, is an exhaustive game-by-game retelling of the most bizarre season I've ever lived through.
  11. champaignchris
    Yes. This is right. What the Cardinals are doing is unfathomable. Through the first third of the season they have the 3rd best record in baseball with a starting rotation that is playing way above their collective heads, a closer with an 8.00 ERA, really only 2 or 3 proven commodities in their starting line up, and a super star whose arm may fall off at any minute. You figure those starting pitchers have to eventually regress to their career norms. Especially as the innings pile up. Wainright is the only guy to pitch 200 innings in a season since 2003 and Wellemeyer will surpass his career high in IP in his next two or three starts. Eventually the non-performance of the back end of their bull pen has to catch up to them, and eventually teams are going to be able to start pitching around the holes in their starting line up. That the Sox are 7 games above .500 isn't as surpising as the fact that neither Detroit or Cleveland are doing better and are actually doing substantially worse. If either Detroit or Cleveland play to expectations, the Sox are a nice story, but not that big a deal. The Sox had a bunch of players that simply didn't perform to career expectations last year. They were due for a rebound this year.
  12. champaignchris
    I just had to highlite that because after Santo, Quisenberry is my pet "veterans committee really should put that guy in the HoF" candidate. He had a 5-year run in KC that was just unbelievable.
  13. champaignchris
    We certainly got more than one year of Sutcliffe. He won 82 games with the Cubs from '84 to '91 and was our top pitcher on two division champ teams. Carter was only on Cleveland until '89 and they never made the post-season with him. They did get Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga from the Padres when they traded him, though. I'll certainly concede that the Mitch Williams deal was horrible. Don't forget that in addition to giving up Palmeiro we also gave up Jamie Moyer in that deal, without getting anything else of consequence from the Rangers. That Williams deal was in the midst of a four or five year spree of bad closer moves. In '87 we gave up Lee Smith (298 more saves before retirement) for Calvin Schiraldi and Al Nippur (both out of baseball by 1992). Also in '87, we gave up Dennis Eckersley (387 more saves before retirement) for three whodats, none of whom ever played an inning in the bigs. In '88, we signed Rich Gossage to be our closer. 289 saves prior to signing, 21 saves with six different teams after signing. Then the Williams deal in '88. Only on the team for two seasons before being traded for Bob Scanlon and Chuck McElroy, neither of whom were on the Cubs for more than 3 seasons. Then we signed Dave Smith in '90. 199 saves prior to signing, 17 saves after signing. Out of baseball in 1992.
  14. champaignchris
    I think the issue's probably been more scouting and talent-level than anything. It's not like the guys that get out of the organization young are blowing up with other teams. Glanville and Hinske are the only two that I can think of that have really done anything after leaving the Cubs. Even assuming the Cubs are grossly incompetant in developing their players, you'd think in 20 years you'd get one player talented enough to become a starting quality major league player at least once.
  15. champaignchris
    I'm not trying to rag on Pie, Theriot or anyone else. I'm thinking more long term than that. In the mid- to late-eighties the Cubs actually did a pretty good job of developing major league starter caliber position players, highlighted by Shawon Dunston, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Grace, and Joe Girardi. Since 1990 they have managed to develope nobody. I'm not exaggerating. Nobody. All of their good position players have been acquired through trade or free agency. Seriously, take a look back at the rosters... Rey Sanchez, who came up with the Cubs in 1991 (but was actually a Rangers draft pick) is pretty easily the best of the bunch. After him, you have Corey Patterson and Doug Glanville. And then who? Rick Wilkens? Derrick May? I can't even think of anyone that came up through the Cubs system and then went on to be good for another team. As it stands, Soto, Pie, Cedeno, Fontenot, Theriot and Murton are probably the most impressive group of position prospects the Cubs have had in close to 20 years (to the extent that Fontenot and Murton can even be considered Cubs' prospects). How sad is that! CHUMP EDIT - 1993>1991
  16. champaignchris
    Before the 1993 season, after years of bungling a great crop of young talent culminating in Maddux signing with the Braves, I said I was done with the Cubs. I went out and bought a Braves hat and swore I'd never root for the jokers again. That lasted about until Spring training broke. Who'd have thunk that Ric Wilkens and Jaimme Navarro would eventually lead the Cubs to a scintilating 84-78 season! I say that sarcastically, but 84-78 probably makes the playoffs in 2008. Hope springs eternal!!! Other people might be able to convert to other teams. I cannot. I will always be a Cubs fan, for better or worse. Usually worse.
  17. champaignchris
    As for Wagner, he's #7 in saves, with some years left. If he can get 60 more saves before he retires, he'll get up to #5. The only guy with a better career ERA among the top 65 in career saves is Rivera. Wagner's got 30 more saves (and counting), a better winning percentage, and an ERA .6 better in 120 more innings pitched than Percival. With the recent additions of Sutter and Gossage, and assuming Hoffman and Rivera are absolute locks, the next reliever in would have to be either Wagner or Quisenberry (who would have to be a veteran committee addition). I also think Wagner will get some bonus points for being a relatively diminutive left handed fire-baller. Don't see too many of those. As for Omar Vizquel... 2600 hits and 11 Gold Gloves. He compares pretty favorably to Aparicio, Reese, and Ozzie Smith. Rizzuto doesn't hold a candle to him.
  18. champaignchris
    First post! My favorite barroom game to play with my baseball watchin' friends is "Who's in?" Here's my list of those who were active last year... Clemons (assuming steroids don't keep him out) Maddux Glavine R. Johnson Smoltz Pedro Hoffman M. Rivera B. Wagner C. Biggio B. Bonds (assuming steroids don't keep him out) Omar Vizquel K. Griffey G. Sheffield I. Rodriguez F. Thomas S. Sosa D. Jeter J. Kent A Rod M. Ramirez M. Piazza V. Guerrerro Pujols and Ichiro each need about 3 more years of play at the level they've shown over the last three or four years. If Ichiro can get 3 more years of 200 hits, that'd be 10 straight years of at least 200 hits at age 37. With a career batting average in the .330's, that'd have to make him a mortal lock. Mussina could have a really nice win total before his career is over. But his ERA wouldn't be all that impressive. He'd basically be a Jack Morris kind of candidate.
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