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wow, that was bad. can you imagine if soriano did something like that tomorrow

Why don't you start telling us how they're not. Umm, they're much much better? The run differential of the 2008 is like 120 more than the 2007 team? You're seriously saying they are the same team?

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was. Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me. This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs. Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs. Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad. Still waiting for you to post the statistic I asked for Refresh my memory. Which? I believe that would be what is the all time record of teams losing game 1 of a division series. No, I was asking what the odds of the Cubs winning would be if they won tomorrow.

Here's how I look at it: The Cubs lost the first game of the season this year. It sucked. Then they won 3 of the next 4. Then they hit the road and won 3 of 4. Then they won 3 of the next 4. They've won 3 out of 4 games lots of times this year. Course the Dodgers have won 2 of 4 lots of times too, I bet. But the point is, no one wants to hear objective analysis right now. They want to bitch and whine with other people who feel as bad as they do, and maybe receive a little hope if it's available from anyone. Going around showing off how uninvested you are in the team may make you feel all superior, but it's probably not helpful to very many people, just in case you were thinking it was. Can people go four posts in this thread without telling me what my emotions are? I know how I feel, and so far it's not what you people keep trying to ascribe to me. This is the Cubs message board. We talk about the Cubs. Statistical analysis has a lot to do with our talk about the Cubs. Until I see a sign that says "no statistical analysis when it looks bad for the Cubs," I'm going to continue to post statistical analysis about the Cubs, good or bad. Still waiting for you to post the statistic I asked for

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount. The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%. I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption. There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care I'm sure someone will point it out. Any day now.... It's easy to take cheap personal shots and ad hominems. Math is hard. If the Cubs win tomorrow (which they'll be favored to do) then what are the chances of them advancing?

According to the link from THT Live posted earlier in the day, the Cubs odds of winning the WS drop 67% if they lose game 1, so the odds of them winning the first series must drop by the same amount. The odds were 52% before the loss, so they now drop to about 17%. I'm too tired to figure it out, but I believe there is a problem with your assumption. There is, I just don't have the energy or motivation to get into it. I don't really care

They rotate umps in the playoffs, right? I Zambrano had to deal with that same guy from tonight it would be pretty ugly.

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say. It's also perfectly accurate. prove it plz http://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?gameid=281001116 Down 3 as the home team coming up in the bottom of the 7th, the Cubs odds of winning was about 13.2%. What percentage of teams come back from down 1-0? I don't know, it's your job to tell us that since you're the one who made the claim. Either way, it's skewed. If the Cubs win tomorrow then the odds dramatically change once again.

Fukudome didn't play bad tonight. He wasn't the reason the Cubs lost. I agree. He made a nice play in RF and had a hard hit ball to third that I thought should have been ruled a base hit. It wasn't a great game, but he wasn't terrible either. At the plate, he was asolutely terrible. He was swinging at garbage all night long. he had one bad at bat, worked a 3-2 count and grounded out, had a should have been hit that was ruled an error and then another groundout that i dont remember much. i dont like him either but i think you're overstating things. I can recall at least 2 bad at-bats. There was one where he was up 2-0, then was up 2-1 and tried to bunt on what would have been ball 3 way inside. Then on the next pitch he grounded out on what should have been ball 4 close to the dirt. Then there was the fukucopter at bat when he stuck out on a ball in the dirt. I don't remember his other at-bats but those 2 were standard Kosuke.

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say. It's also perfectly accurate. prove it plz

Fukudome didn't play bad tonight. He wasn't the reason the Cubs lost. I agree. He made a nice play in RF and had a hard hit ball to third that I thought should have been ruled a base hit. It wasn't a great game, but he wasn't terrible either. At the plate, he was asolutely terrible. He was swinging at garbage all night long.

Who is calling the Rays/White Sox? I want to know because it's like they picked the worst 3 announcers possibe for the other series. Chip Caray, Dick Stockton, and (no offense) Brian Anderson? Give me a break TBS. 75% of the people on this board could do a better job than these morons.

One batter in and Chip already made a fool of himself. "Hit well but playable for Matthews"- as Matthews turns around and gets ready to play it off the wall.

Why don't you be a liar again. Huh? What did I lie about? 2008 Cubs differential- +184 2007 Cubs- +62

Why don't you start telling us how the 2007 Cubs and the 2008 Cubs are the same team again.

Are you seriously comparing last year's team to this year's team? Yeah, no point in reading your posts anymore. It's called cognitive dissonance. Anything that doesn't agree with your preconceived notions can be discarded without consideration. Stop trying to change the subject. Comparing the 2007 Cubs to the 2008 Cubs was silly.

Are you seriously comparing last year's team to this year's team? Yeah, no point in reading your posts anymore.

Maddux in to finish it? Just kick my dog while you're at it, Torre

lolol Marquis struck out Manny Ramirez

What? On that ball that almost hit the line for a double he was just standing there. He never even dropped the bat.

Wrigley Field is not the issue. The issue is the absence of a [expletive]. Those walks and the inevitable dagger took the air out of everything. No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying the HFA is gone because of the game 1 loss. Now the Dodgers have HFA

What the hell is Edmonds' problem? So much for that veteran experience. He's lucky that ball didn't get down.

Wrigley Field is just a depressing scene right now. All those wins in the regular season now mean nothing. Home field advatange is now gone.

Come on, we need 2 baserunners so Soriano can end the game on a k in the dirt.

NO reason to show them Marmol when we're trailing. The starter didn't go deep so this is what you get. I know that's the strategy, but it is like waving a white flag. Noit's really not. There is no reason to bring Marmol into this game. Well, I believe that you should put yourself in the best position to win the game and Marmol is the guy that does that. So you think Marmol should be used in every game of the playoffs? You can't do that.