Welcome to the board. First off, I think you're greatly overvaluing Beltre. I'm not sure how good Youkillis is defensively at third (though my guess is above average), but his offense is right on a par with Beltre's, and AGon is way better than both of them. The drop-off on first base defense is pretty insignificant as well. AGon may have never hit 40 playing half his games in cavernous Petro, but I think he's just about a lock to do it at Fenway. And pitching-rich AL East? I'll need some examples, because I don't see it. I think the Red Sox outscore everybody next year. The Rays are on the precipice of a serious decline, and I don't like where the Yankees are at all. I think the Sox take the division by 5-10 games, honestly.