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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Do we actually know that this whole ball thing hurt the Cubs offense more than other teams? I know the general theory, that guys like Schwarber, Bryant, Baez hit longer home runs than the average player, but I'm wondering if that's a team wide thing, and if it's more selective memory (people remember the bombs and think every HR they hit is 440, while filtering out all the basket shots). It'd be nice if it was true, but seems...hopeful.
  2. squally1313
    Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these. I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for. Friend of a friend works for Boras and passed along something similar. Rendon doesn't really like baseball that much, is just looking for a shorter term deal that is going to set him/family up for generations. Something like a 4/160 deal might not be out of the question.
  3. squally1313
    Well yeah, those last two guys are dead.
  4. squally1313
    The ideal usage of Schwarber is starting only against RHP, with a platoon partner who kills lefties. The issue with that is that Heyward needs a platoon partner even more, and somehow getting two pretty much wrecks any flexibility you have. If Bote can turn into someone who OPSs in the mid 800s against lefties, then KB can be one of those guys. But that's far from a guarantee.
  5. squally1313
    There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense 1B - Rizzo 3B - Rendon RF - Bryant LF - Schwarber SS - Javy C - Willson 2B - Happ CF - Nico BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp Would Happ in CF and Nico at 2b be better? I’m on board with platooning Happ/Hoerner/Heyward between CF and 2B. Vs righties Heyward starts in CF with Happ and Nico splitting the starts at 2b. Happ in CF and Nico at 2B vs lefties. Does Hoerner have splits? Happ isn't very good against lefties. Better than Heyward, but still prefer him as the first guy off the bench/the guy getting 3 starts a week spelling 4-5 positions.
  6. squally1313
    It's really unfortunate that Almora completely lost his one ability (hitting LHP), and Happ hasn't had it the last two years. Makes someone like Castellanos that much more valuable, but I still don't think you can justify spending limited resources there when you have a left handed version in Schwarber already on the roster. Without getting into the details, picking up a starter like Grey purely through prospects and the Happs/Botes of the world, and then using Contreras to find a legit starting RH outfielder would create a lot more flexibility out there. The other way to think about this is the option cubswin11 keeps pushing, which is just keeping Almora for that spot since he'll probably bounce back, and lefty mashing outfielder is possibly the easiest thing in the baseball world to find if not. That's fair, as much as I hate Almora. Schwarber at a .750 OPS with marginal defense and Heyward at .553 regardless of defense...neither are positives. Would be nice to see a bounce back from Bote against LHP too...makes it easier to let KB play a corner spot 30-40 times a year. Schwarber/Happ/Heyward should be fine against RHP, but against LHPs it gets ugly real quick.
  7. squally1313
    Mostly because I looked at the bench and didn't like that the only lefty with pop was a catcher. Considering all 3 starting OF are LH in this scenario and Happ and Almora are both traded, I think you might be right that RH would be probably be preferable. It's really unfortunate that Almora completely lost his one ability (hitting LHP), and Happ hasn't had it the last two years. Makes someone like Castellanos that much more valuable, but I still don't think you can justify spending limited resources there when you have a left handed version in Schwarber already on the roster. Without getting into the details, picking up a starter like Grey purely through prospects and the Happs/Botes of the world, and then using Contreras to find a legit starting RH outfielder would create a lot more flexibility out there.
  8. squally1313
    Overall I'm in, outside of having first heard of this Shogo guy about 3 hours ago. Out of curiosity, why do you prefer the outfield bat be left handed? Wouldn't it be more beneficial to get someone who can give Heyward and Schwarber days off against tough lefties?
  9. squally1313
    Pitchers have hope of improving when they leave Colorado, plus he only has a one year commit. I know this is cutting down small sample sizes down even more, but he was actually worse away from home this year, once you notice that his BABIP went down 187 points (.397 to .210) from home to road. Ks went way down, HRs went up. He's fine as a means of picking up salary to facilitate a trade, but I don't think he can be relied upon for anything in a solid bullpen. Grey was actually worse on the road too, for what it's worth.
  10. squally1313
    Is McGee just for salary purposes? Because he hasn't been good in two years. If you want to pick up salary, just grab Ian Desmond and let him crush lefties in left field.
  11. squally1313
    So having two of them would be a good thing? And also in one more start and 14 more innings, Cole put up 4.1 WAR in the second half vs Yu's 2.5 WAR, so..."basically" is doing a lot of work there. Yu was great, and the most fun I've had watching a Cubs pitcher since Jake's run, but...Cole (and Verlander and Flaherty) was/were on a different planet.
  12. squally1313
    I loved getting mad at Maddon as much as anyone else here, because he made a lot of very dumb, wrong decisions. But it's hard for me to care much at all about who they end up, because looking around the league, it's going to be someone who also makes dumb, wrong decisions pretty much regardless of who it is. Hopefully it gets wrapped up quickly, and I'm hoping it's not Ross because I honestly want it to be someone as low profile as possible.
  13. squally1313
    Yeah, Schwarber as a full time outfielder putting up 2.5-3 WAR isn't all that exciting, both for us and for another team. He put up a .900 OPS against RHP and a .756 against LHP. You obviously can't eliminate all his PAs against LHPs, but it's safe to say most of his value came from his 486 PAs against RHP, and he got none or negative value in his 124 PAs against LHPs. If you can find someone to take those ABs, then you could be looking at 4-4.5 WAR from the left field spot, which is definitely appealing. Looking at left fielder stats against lefties, there are names like Jordan Luplow, Ian Desmond, Chris Taylor that could maybe serve that role. Of course, a player like that might be better served doing this with Heyward instead of Schwarber, so this all might be a moot point.
  14. squally1313
    As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please Let’s face it - don’t we already have enough guys in the rotation who are 4/5 in Q and Lester? Q was worth 3.5 WAR this year, even with his miserable September, which was good for 26th best in baseball. But yes, definitely, he's a 4th or 5th starter. On a related note, good luck to Aaron Nola and Clayton Kershaw, both guys who put up a lower WAR this year (in more innings) in their fight to make the rotation next year.
  15. squally1313
    The only way he comes back is if someone wants to overpay for Schwarber to fill another position of need (every day second baseman, shut down reliever, etc). Outside of that, I loved watching Nick, but Kyle hit better than him during the time he wasn’t here, is a better defender, and will cost a fraction of what Nick does.
  16. squally1313
    Hypothetically, where do you think all the revenue should go? The market has clearly shown that millions of people are willing to pay current ticket prices, cable subscriptions, food/drink prices, etc to watch major league talent. That money has to go somewhere. What do you think should happen to it? (It's Friday, I'm bored)
  17. squally1313
    He’s getting paid $10m to be a top 50 pitcher in baseball while the dude we traded for him struggles to hit a .300 OBP. I was hoping for better, but we’ve done far, far worse.
  18. squally1313
    I want them to do whatever needs to be done to make St Louis and Milwaukee have a game 163 on Monday (so win at least one of the three in St Louis). That would make them travel more and play an extra game. Would also make the Cardinals use Flaherty which means he’d either be unavailable for the WC game if they lose or unavailable until Game 3 of the NLDS if they win. Cards cost us the division last year by getting swept by Milwaukee at home and then winning one against us in the last week. The least we can do is repay the favor. I agree but also just because one game playoffs are incredible when you aren't a fan of either team.
  19. squally1313
    My White Sox fan buddy asked me what draft position we'd end up in if we lost out, which was incredibly sobering. I refuse to look.
  20. squally1313
    None of this really means anything to me, and if anything it's a negative, not a positive. Not that our press is full of intelligent writers who expect analytic based decisions, but I don't really need the David Ross love fest to actually impact the day to day decisions/coverage. You think the generally positive view of David Ross as a person will impact how Gordo or Sullivan covers the team or how the team operates on a day to day basis? The second part, probably not. Given Ross and Theo's close relationship, I assume if Ross came on it would be with a clear directive to follow the analytics, especially given his lack of managerial experience. Overall, that's probably a good thing. But I got pretty tired of how long Maddon was given 'smartest person in the room' status because he gave a good three minute sound bite after the game. People have access to the numbers that can usually show what was a good decision and what was a bad decision. I want that more than the Maddon treatment.
  21. squally1313
    None of this really means anything to me, and if anything it's a negative, not a positive. Not that our press is full of intelligent writers who expect analytic based decisions, but I don't really need the David Ross love fest to actually impact the day to day decisions/coverage.
  22. squally1313
    Good comment.
  23. squally1313
    That's one of those stats that is designed to support the final point, but without any sort of context/comparison, is essentially worthless. Edit: Let's try it out. Astros have scored 893 runs. 1/3 of that is 294. In their top 23 scoring games, they scored 299 runs. Can you imagine how inconsistent their offense must be???
  24. squally1313
    Even Heyward had a pretty good year outside of the leadoff/Joe stuff. Meh. 2018: Offensive value: 3.7 wRC+: 99 WAR: 2.0 2019: Offensive value: 3.7 wRC+: 102 WAR: 1.9 He's still mediocre. He needs to be platooned, and ideally the platoon is still in right field (though the latter part is pretty unlikely at this point). .838 OPS against RHP, 116 wRC+ .558 OPS against LHP, 46 wRC+
  25. squally1313
    Well hopefully you'll be watching the Nats offense, as the Cubs don't play until tomorrow.
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