squally1313

100 wRC with a .225 BABIP is not bad right.

Trea Turner was maybe the one where you could have made a strong argument that we should have gone bigger and theoretically better. He has outproduced Dansby by 0.5 fWAR over the length of their new contracts to date, is a year older, has a 77 wRC where the metrics agree, and is suddenly a negative defender. Dansby has 3/$75 after this year, Turner has 7/$189.

Dansby all of a sudden back at a 96 wRC to go along with his 3rd highest defensive value as a shortstop. BABIP still .225

Dansby is bad I was told

Yeah these are good points and I think we're mostly on the same page. I think your initial guess is probably right in that I should expect disappointment. I keep going back and getting frustrated by those comments about the bye and how us clearly not in the running may drive a lack of impactful moves. I get it from a math perspective, but also if you're going to insist on us being top 2-3 in the league by July to make a big swing, maybe don't go into every year with a 'well the bullpen will hopefully figure itself out by August' mentality.

Like, I get that we need outfielders next year but unless I'm off and Michael Conforto has turned back into a multi year, 8 digit annually contract guy....isn't there a pretty good chance he can man a corner next year and hit at least as well as one of these converted infielders?

It's not apples to apples but Rojas is sitting at 68 in the Pipeline update that dropped today basically doing a poor man's Matt Shaw at AA thing and there isn't a spot on the infield open until 2030. And if you're high on Rojas and think he can hit in a corner OF spot, then there's the 75th best prospect who came out of nowhere to do a poor man's Matt Shaw at AAA thing who is also blocked. And if you're high on both of them, then....there's Matt Shaw. The pocket might not be burning, but it's kinda bursting at the seams while we're filling up the other pocket with guys who haven't pitched effectively in the majors ever and/or since like 2022.

Just because the defense is good doesn't mean we shouldn't want guys who are good at pitching. Maybe don't play HR/FB roulette come September/October.

Mark Grace with the Cubs: 8234 PAs, 44.2 fWAR Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner combined with the Cubs: 8052 PAs, 43.7 fWAR

The Padres starter has made one start in the majors this year, which he apparently earned by putting up a 7.92 ERA in 14 starts in AAA. He made a bunch of largely mediocre starts for the Athletics before then, but looks like we never ran into him. We are second in baseball in wRC against LHP, though this guy doesn't have splits. The Padres are very bad against LHPs (27th in baseball), so in theory this should be good for us. Win again, preferably comfortably enough that Assad can just wrap up whatever Boyd can't do.

Fair enough. I did last 30 days, which are slightly different results than the ones you're showing, but worth pointing out that the rest of the offense still put up roughly 3 wins when you factor in everything, which would be like 23rd in baseball, and presumably a good bit higher if you took out everyone else's best player. In that same stretch, the entire Cubs pitching staff has a -0.3 fWAR, worst in baseball.

There's definitely truth to that, but man was it frustrating that all the pessimism seemed the come in the form of like 'Has Ian Happ ever had an RBI in a Cubs uniform' or 'Nico is 17 for his last 71, which is a totally normal sample size'. The hitters are good, the pitching is bad.

It's June 30. Despite many people confidently stating that we'd be out of the playoff race by the end of the month, here's where we currently sit. 47-38, which is an 89.5 win pace FG has us with a 70.2% chance to make the playoffs, a 11.8% chance to win the division, and a 5.7% chance to get a bye. Mentioning that last piece because Jed is on record, very frustratingly, as saying whether the team is competing for the bye is somewhat of a bellwether for their trade deadline decision making. I disagree. The Cubs offense, in overall metrics, is the second best in baseball. We are 4th in wOBA/wRC, 9th in xwOBA, 6th in runs scored. 8th best baserunning team, pretty comfortably the best defensive team in baseball. To the extent this matters, we are now 15th in wRC (102) with RISP, and 4th in wRC (119) in what FG defines as high leverage PAs. PCA is the best offensive player in baseball and trails only Ohtani for total value. Overall C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B production has been between 12th and 13th, RF is 6th, LF is 8th, CF is comfortably 1st, as is total outfield production. DH is 20th. (feel free to stop now) Cubs pitching is 28th in baseball in fWAR. 17th in ERA, 24th in xERA, 25th in FIP, 17th in xFIP. We have the 24th highest K rate in baseball, the 10th lowest BB rate, the worst HR/9 rate, and the second lowest BABIP against. The starting pitching is 25th in baseball, the bullpen is 26th. If you want to squint and see a bright side here, we're basically at the point where we're rolling out largely replacement level pitchers in every role (which is slightly unfair to Shota and hopefully to Boyd, but is generous to at least half of the bullpen), so no matter how many more injuries they throw at us, it can't get much worse. Boyd goes tonight, Wiggins is on the mend, you hope we see at least someone from the Brown/Cabrera/Steele/Wiggins/Palencia group. Even if you do, this is a bad, severely beat up pitching staff. And no, I will not get excited for Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks. In the latest NSBB prospect rankings, 10 of the top 11 prospects were hitters. 5 spots in the lineup are locked in through at least 2029, and that's before considering Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros. The path forward, to me, seems obvious. This is a playoff team, make them as good of a playoff team as you can, which means pitching and more pitching.

Guys taking their walks even during massive struggles seems like a team wide thing. Need to think on it more, but their team walk rate is the best of any team this decade. Almost feel like there’s some very purposeful direction with the new ABS system and the zone essentially changing/shrinking

Back to an 89 win pace with a pitching staff that’s roughly 75% AAA pitchers. give these hitters a chance Jed

Man

Yeah generally agreed. I was thinking maybe with his K rate he’s such a cheat code in extra innings. But too clever by half. the ball continues to find Bregman

Pete is so horsefeathers impressive. The ball is clearly just going to keep finding Bregman until something breaks.

I’m saying it was a bad decision by the coaching staff to call the bunt

He’s a catcher, our bullpen is made of Swiss cheese, it’s the 6th inning, and the wind is blowing straight out on a 95 degree night.

Bunting is stupid. Put a ball in the air.

The cubs are second in baseball offensively over the last 14 days, and have been league average for the last 7, the expectations for constant elite production are so, so stupid

Griffin Canning supposedly for the Padres, per FG. He sucks. Shota also isn't very good. Hit more home runs, win the game.

I'm sure I'm jinxing this, but there are some incredible second round matchups coming if things break the way they're 'supposed to'. Germany v France on 4th of July, Portugal v Spain, Mexico v England in Mexico City are all nuts.

This just can’t sustain itself