squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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It's just entirely different for them than it is for all of us. Bellinger is 27 years old, the son of a major league baseball player, and has made almost $70m already. He's the definition of 'in peace' and has been for essentially his entire life. There are entire teams dedicated to making whatever his surroundings are as comfortable as possible, and he has magnitudes more money than I assume all of us to speed up that comfort. He's never once in this offseason been at risk of making less than $20m starting in 6 weeks. That's not to say it's not a 'difficult' decision, but it's a totally different world.
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I mean, and I don't want to sound overly short or anything, but it's guys with families, relationships, maybe small kids, etc etc etc deciding where they want to spend the next 3-8 years of their life? For a job that doesn't technically start for another month? Like, would you be in a rush? If you're a good player and you want to go to a winner, wouldn't you maybe try to wait and see if a certain team made any other moves?
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Wasn't really expecting to get into a debate about whether 2016 Jason Heyward is better or worse for the 2024 Cubs than present day Cody Bellinger. But, sure. Heyward was 2 years younger, coming off basically a four year stretch of playing to a 5 win pace, and yes, outperformed Bellinger in his free agent year. Not sure how you get to a 5.6 to 4.8 difference not being 'significantly' different but Bellinger putting up an offensive number of 26.3 vs Heyward's 22.2 is a 'much better offensive season'. Interestingly, the main thing they had in common was that Heyward outperformed his xwOBA by 29 points his last year in StL and Bellinger just outperformed his by 39 points. But that's probably just me trolling again.
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The Cubs did a very good job signing cheap players/reclamation projects and turning them into serviceable major league players while they were in their rebuilding phases. They missed on a couple/few last year, but every cheap offensive player isn't Eric Hosmer. I'm not saying that they'll be better than Prospect X, but to automatically dismiss a cheap veteran for a prospect because of Eric Hosmer is oversimplifying the process. Part of your job as a GM is to determine the differences between the waiver wire guy and the dude in AAA. The monetary risk is low, the playing time risk isn't. Pick the better player, not just the younger one.
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Well Heyward was a significantly better baseball player going into that offseason than Bellinger is now, so good for the players for bumping up salary expectations? Kinda just trolling here, but I just don't get the panic in someone like Bellinger to sign a contract before you have to. Go spend the offseason doing what you want, the money will still be there.
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Can someone explain the big like, existential problem of free agents signing later in the offseason, given that pretty much all of the contracts so far have fallen right in line with the projections made by everyone back at the beginning of the offseason? Like, besides it being 'boring' or whatever for the thousands of people who obsess over this daily (myself included), maybe this particular group of dudes just aren't in as much of a hurry to sign a contract?
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And that devastating injury, or maybe the mechanical changes he made to handle the devastating injury, made his batted ball profile look pretty abysmal. Besides the fact that it's hard for me to totally buy into the fact that he spent all of 2022 (144 games played, 550 PAs, all in the field) 'recovering' from that injury.
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Younger - Yes, agreed Plays a premium defense - He was a negative defender in center last year per FG. In 2022, when he was a positive defender, and played entirely CF, he was the 10th best center fielder in the game defensively. Chapman was 11th in 2022, 7th in 2023. Would argue Chapman is a more valuable defender. Premium position - League wide, Centerfield last year had a .249/,316/.414, .316 wOBA line, 3B had a .244/.316/.404 line, so you could argue third is a more premium position. Better hitter - Obviously the main debate. Bellinger put up clearly superior numbers in 2023 and has far surpassed that in the past. On the other hand, Bellinger has had 4 good months of offensive baseball in the last three years. Batted ball data loves Chapman, and he's projected to be the better hitter next year. More versatile - Yes, agreed, though it's not like Chapman has ever proven himself unplayable anywhere else, he has 10 innings not at third in his career. Probably can't play short, but who knows on the right side of the infield.
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To be fair, I don't know if it's that Chapman 'can't' play first or second as much as there's never been any reason to play him anywhere besides third, a premium defensive position where he gives elite defense. Obviously it doesn't help you in the outfield, so Bellinger gets slight credit for being able to play 4 spots.
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Yeah I mean, if you simply disagree with the projections, sure, I get it. Which is not a shot at all, I probably get annoying just blindly referencing them, but figure it's a common ground place to start. Splitting the difference between 2023 production and 2024 projections you gets you to essentially equal players, though Chapman pulls a little more value from defense (again, depending on where you rate both guys on both sides of the ball). On the Bellinger argument you have age and flexibility. On the Chapman side you have a cheaper/shorter contract (most likely), and the fact that I'd rather 'block' Shaw/Murray/etc at third than PCA in center. Your last sentence, to me, kinda comes down to whether you can include Morel and Busch as 'current 3B options'. Wisdom/Madrigal v PCA/Tauchman doesn't really inspire me too much one way or the other, especially given the theoretical elite defense PCA brings to the table.
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The Cubs were an excellent offensive team in April. They were a mediocre/bad offensive team in May and June. If you want to talk about inconsistency, you could point to that, and the whole they dug themselves which turned the whole second half into a playoff chase and eventually decimated the bullpen. From there, in the second half that you mentioned, here's how they went: July: .336 wOBA, 5th in fWAR, 15-11, 150 runs scored, 5.7 runs/game August: .324 wOBA, 10th in fWAR, 18-9, 149 runs scored, 5.5 runs/game September: .336 wOBA, 7th in fWAR, 12-16, 151 runs scored, 5.4 runs/game What kind of consistency are you realistically expecting here? I really don't think my response came off as a personal attack, even setting aside the fact that we keep posting these numbers and you responded with 'Summarize it in sentence for me' which is...whatever. Outside of the Braves, every contending team I looked at in the NL scored 3 or less runs over 50 times last season. It's just....how baseball works these days.
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Yeah hoping they all get dumped in one easy spot when they wrap up the last couple teams here, but I've been having to go to individual team previews to find them for the time being. Chapman being the best option for 2024, a year we are very much trying to make the playoffs, and also the year we're currently in, is more or less the most important argument out there for signing him. And, realistically, he's still the best option for 2025 until proven otherwise. No one seems to make this argument for Bellinger and PCA, even though Bellinger is only projected to provide one more win in 2024 than PCA, and PCA comes with having sustained success at AA and decent results at AAA. Chapman is projected for 3.6 next year and we shouldn't sign him to keep a spot open for a guy with 70 AA PAs in 2025, Bellinger is projected for 2.7 and is our best long term option for CF even though we have a guy already projected for 1.7 in 2024? Or is the argument to sign neither?
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Drury Zips: .245/.295/.435, 98 OPS+, -3 defense Wisdom Zips: .212/.300/.455, 103 OPS+, -3 defense Chapman Zips: .243/.333/.453, 117 OPS+, +8 defense
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He's projected for 3.6 fWAR next year (is it 'this year' now?) and increases the trade-ability of the Morel/Busch/Murray/Shaw group (doubt Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastro have much value). If you want to not sign him to use that money elsewhere (effectively), great. If you want to not sign him so as not to offend Matt Shaw and throw out a very low ceilinged platoon for the next year-year and a half, no. If we sign Chapman and Shaw balls out through AA and AAA this year, well, hey, Nico will only have 2 years left of control and would probably get us a nice pitcher for 2025. We signed Suzuki to a long term deal in March 2022 with Brennen Davis coming off a year where he put up a 135 wRC+ in AA and then a 150 wRC+ in a short AAA stint. We haven't had to worry about Seiza or Happ blocking a good prospect. If you want to be a win now team, go get proven players. Figure out the 'we have too much talent' problem later.
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Yeah I'm really not super concerned about third base. We were 11th in production there last year completely cobbling it together, we have the additional options/potential internal upgrades that TT mentioned in the form of Busch, Murray, Shaw, Morel magically learning how to play it, etc that we didn't have last year. If you want to sign Chapman because he's one of like 5 guys out there that offers a potential first division starter and we have money to spend, sure, won't be mad about it. But you can absolutely survive on a platoon that's projected for 2.9 fWAR.
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Agreed on not right now. ZIP totals from NL contending teams (basically from when the article was written besides me taking out Soto from the Padres, so not perfect): Braves 53.9 Dodgers 47.8 DBacks 42.2 Phillies 40.9 Cardinals 40.7 Cubs 38.9 Mets 37.1 Padres 36.2 Giants 35.6 Brewers 35 On one hand, you'd think that just spending the $40m or so to get up to the first CBT line would be enough to put us above the Phillies and the Cardinals., if not the Diamondbacks. On the other hand, it has us getting 2.2 from CF, 2.9 from 3B, and 2 from 1B, and the rumored upgrades: Bellinger (2.7), Chapman (3.6), and Hoskins (2.0 per Steamer) would only get you so far. Obviously there would be knock on effects (Bellinger means PCA is the corner backup, not Canario, Chapman means the end of Wisdom, etc). Can obviously upgrade the pitching....Bieber (3.8), Clase (1.8) are both essentially 2 win upgrades by themselves, Montgomery and Snell (3.0 and 3.2) would be good too. Basically: Sign Chapman or Bellinger, and trade for Bieber, thanks.
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He had an .852 OPS in (again, only) 15 games in AA. Let’s make sure we keep a spot open for Chase Strumpf (901 OPS) too I guess
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Matt Shaw has 9 walks in his professional career. I hope he’s good too. He should not be impacting current roster decisions.
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Leaving out Horton, the BBTV site says you'd need to also throw in either Triantos and Wesneski or Shaw or Alcantara. I think everyone would prefer option A there, but goes to show you the price. Basically has Ramirez with slightly less value than PCA + Horton
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The takeaway is that if you weren't happy with the offense last year, you likely aren't going to be happy with the offense this year, regardless of the moves they do or do not make, because you're expecting a level of production/consistency that is incredibly rare in modern baseball.
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As mentioned before, Cubs were offensively above average, if not elite, in April (2nd), July (5th), August (10th), and September (7th). They were bad (or 'flopping') in May (21st) and June (16th). Deeper dive into the May-June stretch: The Good/Fine (over 100 PAs): Morel 147 wRC Happ 110 wRC Swanson 107 wRC Tauchman 106 wRC Seiya 104 wRC Madrigal 96 wRC Hoerner 93 wRC The Bad (over 99 PAs): Mancini 78 wRC Gomes 73 wRC Wisdom 50 wRC Bellinger 54 wRC Mervis 46 wRC
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Cubs offense in August: 103 wRC (11th in baseball), 4.1 offensive fWAR (10th in baseball) Cubs offense in September: 111 wRC (7th in baseball), 5.6 offensive fWAR (7th in baseball) Cubs for the seaason: 104 wRC (12th in baseball), 24.8 offensive fWAR (9th in baseball) What about that group didn't "finish the season"?
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My immediate reaction is that PCAs trade value far exceeds Clase's, but the Trade Value site loves Clase. This trade came out as about perfectly even: PCA and Wesneski Clase, Bieber, Josh Naylor Obviously contingent on a Bellinger signing. That trade adds $23m, call it $25 for Bellinger and you're still under most projections. Opening day looks like this: LF Happ 2B Nico CF Belli RF Seiya SS Dansby 1B Naylor DH Busch/Morel C Gomes/Amaya 3B Wisdom/Madrigal/Busch/Morel Bench/DH: Amaya, Madrigal, Busch, Morel, Tauchman/Canario. Realistically there's a trade here to jettison someone from the Wisdom/Madrigal/Morel group and give a spot to someone else who can play outfield. Steele Bieber Imanaga Taillon Wicks Hendricks Bullpen: Clase, Azlolay, Merryweather, Smyly, Leiter, Almonte, Assad (Little, Cuas, Brown, Brewer, Palencia, Thompson, Rucker)
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I think its more that your expectations of 'consistent offense' are unrealistic in modern baseball outside of the extreme outliers (ie Braves). The 2023 Cubs were not uniquely inconsistent, or uniquely running hot and cold. Yes, they weren't consistently good last year. Neither were 28 of the other 29 teams (and Braves ended up with like, 38 games scoring 3 or less too).
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Rangers had scored 0-3 runs 63 times in 2023 as well. So the Cubs came in below the average of the World Series teams this year. But it's a big number, so they are Bad.
