WrigleyField 22

His signing in 2028 will be BIG.

Yes.

Never moving at all is dumb. Unfortunately there's no hard and fast rule. Take the Trubisky pick. At the time I'd have assumed he must have been far and away their top QB. When you have the rare opportunity of a top 3 pick, if you have an opportunity for a QB you take it and if there's only one you do so aggressively IMO. Since then there was the article that came out that revisited that draft and apparently Mahomes and Trubisky, along with a few others, were all very closely bunched for the Bears. The 3 pick insurance policy for 1 spot when you have 2 QBs you like very closely? Real dumb risk management there if that was in fact the board. That's doing the opposite of what you should do- trust your evaluation. In areas where you may see real divisions of your board, explore trading up or fielding the trade down calls. All that said I of course have some complaints about Paces draft management. As to acquiring picks I think the best way to do that is through clever management of the comp pick system and knowing when to trade away vets. Trading up or down with picks is rarely inherently good or bad, though I do have a preference for even pick swaps i.e. 2 for 2 if you're trading up and am not particularly fond of 3 for 1 trade-up swaps.

Boo trading back just for the sake of collecting picks. I get lasering in on a target isn't great, but fans always like the idea of extra picks and then inevitably just hate the picks. It's basically the "why dont thet make the whole plane out of the black box" form of draft analysis.

Well said A couple awesome Pace overpays (trades with actual picks) Bears get - Trubisky #2 Bears give - Solomon Thomas #3(could have been DeShaun) Alvin Kamara (2017 3rd) Tedric Thompson (2017 4th picked Eddie Jackson one pick after this pick by trading up) Fred Warner (2018 3rd rounder) Bears get - Anthony Miller (2018 2nd) Bears give - Antonio Callaway (2018 4th) Mecole Hardman (2019 2nd) Of course there are lots of over draft examples - 2020 Kmet 2019 Montgomery, Ridley, really you could say the whole draft 2018 A Miller, 2017 Trubisky, Shaheen 2016 Floyd (I thought we were trading up for Tunsil) 2015 White, Grasu I can't fault him for 4th round on, he's had some really good picks. But he does not value picks appropriately and also overpays in FA, notably Graham and Quinn here recently. I cant necessarily get behind the overpay complaint too much. This past off season was bad. In prior seasons though it does seem like he prioritized ascending players rather than paying for past performance. Now obviously you'll miss on those as well, but he's generally targeted the right type rather than just going after the most pedigreed guys in FA. Granted you'd rather develop and pay your own guys, so FA is never going to be truly efficient cap spending, but Graham and Quinn are probably the most egregious paying for downside moves.

Per "the chart" 2 high sixths might get you one slot in the mid first round. Realistically no one want two sixth though. They'll just demand a mid 4th which is the same point value (which the Bears happen to lack). In the mid 1st, 3 slots would be like a late third though. Eta misunderstood the original question.. In the third it could be 5 spots. If we're talking comp picks which are like high sevenths, which about adds up. I personally don't like that as a trade up though. 3 for 1 trades are icky to me in the middle rounds. Nothing is official by they project to have 2 6ths and a 7th from comp picks. And +1 from Shaheen and (-1) from Piniero, both a 6th or 7th, so roughly net even. I think Over The Cap shows the comp pick limit hitting after the Bears second 6th rounder, so no 7th round comp pick. I heard that Shaheen being resigned triggered his conditional pick to go from 7th to 6th (no idea how to verify that). Piniero is to Oak. So they would have 1 2 3 4 -> to Minnesota 5 6 6 from Miami 6 Comp 6 Comp I see that now. I was looking at the cancellation chart before which doesn't show the limit/cap... All comp picks done by Rd 6 is really odd. Normally you see a couple miss the cutoff. Maybe teams are really getting smart about maximizing comp pick value? https://overthecap.com/draft/ The list does appear to be slightly out of date. For instance Clinton Dix shouldn't qualify anymore I believe as he ended up being cut. Presuming there could be a few more updates, KPLs pick is up there as one of the next they project to count. So 3 still seems like a decent shot. And while they show a 6th for KPL thats probably borderline 7th.

Is the "fired head coach dead cat" bounce a real thing or are you just trying to stay positive? When a coach was as disliked as much as Patricia apparently was, I feel like it's a thing.

I got sucked into engaging with Twitter idiots today that are still like, "Retool, SB Champs 2021 Baby!" (more or less)

OL lasting forever if a bad adage that should die. Theres 5 of them so we remember the guys who stand the test of time like a Whitworth, but he's a unicorn. 8 years is a really good run for a OL. 6 is still pretty decent. Usually it's like 6 years of good play then 2 where they get by on reputation. Sure it's longer than a RB, but about up there with any other non QB-RB or specialist position.

It of course just depends on circumstance. If they have a cloud of 4 that are very close maybe you consider trading down 3 for an extra mid round pick from 15 to 18. Later in the draft, popping on a trade up and parting with a 6th, where they probably have 3-4 sixths, knock yourself out. Either way, I don't think trading down is going to dramatically improve their draft strength. If they want to actually improve draft capital it's by figuring out which vets, who could be gone in a year anyways, might net something. Thats how you are more likely to significantly alter your draft capital. Mack and Fuller are probably the only significant guys who might net you something interesting. So gotta figure out your price. Anyone else might get you some late picks... Just a matter of taking what you could get if you might be cutting them anyways (see, Hicks) I tend to discredit the later round picks so much that I wouldn't even think to package them to move up, but I also didn't realize they had any additional picks in those later rounds. That being said, what would (2) 6th round picks get you? I cant imagine too much, 5 slots in the 3rd? Per "the chart" 2 high sixths might get you one slot in the mid first round. Realistically no one want two sixth though. They'll just demand a mid 4th which is the same point value (which the Bears happen to lack). In the mid 1st, 3 slots would be like a late third though. Eta misunderstood the original question.. In the third it could be 5 spots. If we're talking comp picks which are like high sevenths, which about adds up. I personally don't like that as a trade up though. 3 for 1 trades are icky to me in the middle rounds. Nothing is official by they project to have 2 6ths and a 7th from comp picks. And +1 from Shaheen and (-1) from Piniero, both a 6th or 7th, so roughly net even.

I feel that way too, but especially/only in the 1st. BPA has to be the tactic as there are just too many holes to fill. If you can trade back and get good returns in the 1st, its also a very good option imo. That being said, there are some decent QB prospects in this draft and if one falls to them, I feel like they have to take the shot. I just DO NOT want to see them trading up for anyone in particular, they dont have the draft capital to spare It of course just depends on circumstance. If they have a cloud of 4 that are very close maybe you consider trading down 3 for an extra mid round pick from 15 to 18. Later in the draft, popping on a trade up and parting with a 6th, where they probably have 3-4 sixths, knock yourself out. Either way, I don't think trading down is going to dramatically improve their draft strength. If they want to actually improve draft capital it's by figuring out which vets, who could be gone in a year anyways, might net something. Thats how you are more likely to significantly alter your draft capital. Mack and Fuller are probably the only significant guys who might net you something interesting. So gotta figure out your price. Anyone else might get you some late picks... Just a matter of taking what you could get if you might be cutting them anyways (see, Hicks)

Meh. Granted a lot will be lower value picks but they're slated to already have 3 extra picks and could pick up 3 or 4 comp picks in 2022 again (and perhaps a 4th for Arob). So they don't have a volume issue. Picking up some extra thirds or whatever... I don't want to see trade down just for the sake of draft capital. Fans love extra picks until the pick is actually made. I think the trade up thing just depends. The trade up for Mitch was basically a pricey insurance policy. That's not a great mindset based on their current position, but if there's areas where your draft board starts to separate itself, sure trade up. But yea can't laser focus on a guy or position. They're not going to solve every problem in 1 off season, especially this one with limited cap. By 2022 they certainly could though... If they can somehow address QB that is.

I agree the play calling thing is overblown. Mostly I think it comes from fans who'd be happy if they rushed 30 times every game. He probably does have some run abandonment issues but not to the scale some might suggest. And Pace letting the line go has hurt. I agree this offseason made little sense. But even with certain talent deficiencies, it seems clear he's not some sort of offensive genius. He's probably fine, but that was a focused search to find the best offensive mind and I think we can say it failed. Can he be an okay head coach and just hire good coordinators and worry about team management? Perhaps. But theres also probably lot of guys like that. I don't see a huge opportunity cost at this point if they chose to move on.

I mean I'd probably take my chance in the 2nd.

Re:Trask, this doesn't sound big armed. I think he's just big size. https://nflmocks.com/2020/11/29/kyle-trask-tough-2021-nfl-draft-prospect/

Jay probably could have ran a decent RPO, at least athletically. Perhaps not mentally. By the end of his run I guess they were doing a tiny bit of it. Also is Trask as big of an arm talent as Jay was? Comparison aside, that's kind of the point though too. I'm not necessarily opposed to the fact that we're resigned to possibly reaching on QBs, but I'm not sure Nagy need figure into it. Let's not worry about a system guy. I kind of rhink a lot about the success Buffalo is seeing with Allen this year. It took a few years but they developed him underneath a D head coach and a OC who wasn't a big system guy. Compared to Mitch's development, light years better and they were similarly risky/raw projects. I thought Trask has the "big arm". whatever, if he is a slow, big noodle armed QB (anything less the Cutler with Trask's profile would be noodle-armed IMO), I want nothing to do with him mid 1st, there are likely to be far more talented options available mid 1 like OT, WR, EDGE, etc. All of which we need. (Now that I say this, we is most certainly the second coming of Roethlisberger...) If we take a project, I'd rather draft JT Daniels in the 3rd/4th whatever. He's always had the talent, its the injury that derailed him in college. I think Jay was something more than big armed. He was like that 95th percentile arm, whereas a wider range of guys might qualify as "big armed". I don't know, somewhat subjective adjectives I guess.

Jay probably could have ran a decent RPO, at least athletically. Perhaps not mentally. By the end of his run I guess they were doing a tiny bit of it. Also is Trask as big of an arm talent as Jay was? Comparison aside, that's kind of the point though too. I'm not necessarily opposed to the fact that we're resigned to possibly reaching on QBs, but I'm not sure Nagy need figure into it. Let's not worry about a system guy. I kind of rhink a lot about the success Buffalo is seeing with Allen this year. It took a few years but they developed him underneath a D head coach and a OC who wasn't a big system guy. Compared to Mitch's development, light years better and they were similarly risky/raw projects.

I mean, Foles wasn't the pick of the litter choice, but he was definitely picked because he "knew the offense". And the fact that the leash was so quick with Mitch and Nagy went from calling a bunch of stuff under center, playaction, and half field reads to calling the stuff he wanted to run that he felt Trubisky couldn't execute supports this theory. Chase Daniels was similarly handpicked. If you asked Nagy the day he signed with the Bears who he wanted to be playing QB in 2020, he wouldn't have said Foles. They had to bring in somebody, because they knew Mitch sucked and they couldn't draft anybody. Foles was chosen because of his history with the system, but he wasn't a guy they secretly wanted to have all along. He was their idea of making lemonade out of lemons. Handpicked QBs are the guys head coaches want from the start, either through the draft or some young free agent/trade target other teams don't value. Foles was an old beat up guy who lost multiple jobs to multiple quarterbacks. Well in that definition of handpicked, its possible Nagy doesn't get his handpicked QB in 2021 either. You can draft a Kyle Trask maybe, but he may well just be the best of an average lot. So definitely don't want to force it just to give Nagy a toy. At least not in the first. Hell I wanted them to sign PJ Walker after the XFL. That type of investment or a mid round pick is the extent of the QB Nagy will get to choose from unless the board goes lucky for the Bears and their preferred QB drops.

It's less faith than a belief that the McCaskeys want to emulate the stability of the Steelers. They have to be jealous of the stability of that head coaching position. 3 head coaches in 50 years. That's the kind of thing blue blood families can be proud of. Constant turnover and turmoil is the way of the nouveau riche like Snyder. They don't want to be like that. This might be true, but doesn't necessarily mesh with the Lovie situation. Though maybe they have buyers remorse on that?

Eh. I know everyone hates trades up, but the Trubisky trade up wasn't the issue. It was Trubisky the player. The Chiefs and Texans traded MUCH more for Mahomes and Watson and nobody cares because they are top 3 QBs. I wouldn't mind if Pace traded up again in this draft. My issue would be with the fact that the man who picked Trubisky, Foles, and Glennon would be picking the QB. I maintain that a combo of Pace and Nagy making that pick together has a legit chance to select the right guy. This staff has had its doubts about Mitch from day one. They brought in veteran babysitters for their knowledge, and sure, Pace grossly overpaid them but that's a different issue. Pace has a valuation problem which showed in his trade ups and several, but not all, signings. There's reason to move on from Pace and Nagy this year, but I doubt they'll hire a better duo. Last time they moved on from mediocrity because they couldn't figure out the QB position they had a disaster hire. I think they are at least as likely to have Pace and Nagy collectively figure out a QB than they are to find a new GM/coach/QB. There can be value in stability, especially when you're coming out of a decade of turnover and turmoil. Just going back to the Ditka decade, that was followed by Wanny getting 6 years, Jauron getting 5, Lovie getting 9 and then Trestman with 2 and Fox with 3. They have to be thinking about turnover every 2-3 years not looking good. I think ownership wants to make it work with these two guys. They aren't incompetent. They put together the first 12 win team in over a decade. They've fielded competitive teams. Barring a meltdown to end the season, they can see justification for keeping the band together. Might as well extend the guys through 2023 at what would have to be a discount coming off down years. Do away with the lame duck concerns for the next two years while having them live through their own 2020 signing decisions. Its really dependent on Nagy not totally losing the roster I think. That game Sunday was not quite as bad, but reminiscent of Trestman losing the locker room.. or at least losing the D. Maybe Pace survives that, but not Nagy. He apparently dogged on the D on his Monday presser, which while true, we'll see if that goes over well. I could see guys not taking kindly to constantly keeping the team in games all the year only to lose because the offense can't put up 20 points, and then get ragged on their first bad performance. Assuming Nagy can get the roster back "in order", it seems pretty clear Nagy isn't an offensive mastermind, so the investment balance on each side of the ball has to get in order, because Nagy isn't going to lift up an offense where the D can just carry the rest of the team. So kind of feels like limited potential long term coach. But I guess we'll see how the next 5 games go, and especially the Detroit game this week. Its an easy schedule, so if they come out firing against Detroit, 8 wins seems pretty doable and 9 wins could be a playoff birth with 2 meaningful division games that could get them to the 9th win. But I have my doubts. 7 wins is looking more likely to me. As it relates to stability, its my understanding Pace has done a lot with modernizing and upgrading the FO of the Bears. The staffing has greatly grown and he was part of overhauling Halas Hall and shaping a legit NFL facility. So even if they move on from Pace, he's hopefully laid some sort of organizational structure that a predecessor can largely leverage. From that standpoint the turnover may not be as big of a deal as it was in the late 90s and even in 2013 when the Bears were basically running like a mom and pop shop. Maybe Pace just is the A to B guy, and they can get a B to C guy, without restarting from A again.

Lions get the fired head coach dead cat bounce. Defense doesn't try again. Bears lose 21-17 (garbage time 2 TDs late by the Bears O)

The 5 TDs don't really tell a true story. The red zone is the only area he's been good in and honest to God, they could have kept Shaheen to just be a big goalline target. Hopefully there's some serious mentorship going on for Kmet. Shaheen barely has 5 tds in his CAREER. Like I said, I wouldn't do the deal again because of what we paid Graham, but I don't feel like its the biggest mistake Pace has made. Its really just another mistake, but one you can deal with. What might be a bigger problem is the way Nagy uses TE's, ie play calling Kmet gets to learn from one of the truly good TE's in the game. Granted it doesn't mean anything if Kmet is a tool or no-talent hack, but that hasn't been my impression of him. I feel like its 89% play calling Shaheen actually has 3 TD catches for the Fins this year. Catching goalline throws is the one thing he can kind of do. And he could have done it for a fraction of the cost. So between Graham and Quinn money maybe they could have invested in the line. Throw Foles money and the 4th they gave up as well. That's tons of money and a draft pick hardly doing anything. Graham has been meh. I've found his play infuriating at times. So he's a decent TE but I don't know if theres anything inherent Kmet can pick up just by being in his presence. Maybe he's a good mentor beyond his play, though. I don't know.

Lions may be a mess, but they could get that interim head coach dead cat bounce. I mean, even if their DC figures out that they can just play zone against Trubisky, they probably win on that adjustment alone, let alone the players actually trying and 50/50 shot the Bears players try. But they probably won't lose out. Jax is in on the tank and Texans are bad too. 6 or 7 wins seems about right though.

not that I would do it again because he deeply overpaid, but Graham hasn't been the worst addition. He's played adequate (5 tds in 11 games) and gives Kmet some solid tutorship. As for Pace, I want him gone. I don't trust he would be able to stand pat if it looked like he wasn't going to get one of the top 4 QBs in the draft. I worry deeply he would trade up again and further handcuff the team with lack of draft pics. Thats the mess we got into with Cutler (2 1st rds) and Trubisky. Enough. If you cant get one of the top 4, stay where you are and draft best avail, preferably at OT, WR, EDGE The 5 TDs don't really tell a true story. The red zone is the only area he's been good in and honest to God, they could have kept Shaheen to just be a big goalline target. Hopefully there's some serious mentorship going on for Kmet.

You really thing Nagy and Pace are back? Its really hard to see them both back as a package deal. Nagy appears to have lost the D, and the O is no better than when he arrived. Pace enters the last year of his deal too, so he's not in great spot to just let him lame duck it with Nagy also on the hot seat if he stayed. Maybe Pace has mesmerized the McCaskey's enough to outlive Nagy, but its hard to see both back... mostly its hard to imagine Nagy back. Damn that would be dumb though. I hope I'm wrong but ownership seems to still trust Pace while Pace seems content to look at Nagy's coaching record and go for one more year. That might change if they lose out or have several repeats of Sunday night. Well I suppose a lot comes down to Pace. If McCaskeys do have complete faith in him they wouldn't necessarily force his hand on Nagy. So it comes back to Paces contract status. If he's a lame duck, he's in a tough spot to hire and also in a tough spot to put his fate in the hands of Nagy. If he has an extension in hand he can have a bit more faith in going in with Nagy and trying to win, and he may still be comfortable he could make a coaching change in 2022. It's also possible that McCaskeys like Pace a lot, but if they're not satisfied with his plan to address the O in 2021, that could seal his fate? I suppose they almost certainly aren't going to make any move mid-year. So yea to some extent the next 5 games matter. Maybe Nagy hasn't actually lost the D for good though I kind of doubt it.