David
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Everything posted by David
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that's a dumb hit -
i wonder how hammel feels about the pep talk from a guy like 10 years younger than him lol
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i feel so e-vindicated for strongly opposing the idea that warren would go into spring training competing for a rotation spot with hendricks (and arguing that he was clearly better than hammel - weird timing for this, i know). think it was sharma that was pushing that?
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time to bust this horsefeathers open
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Our defense is so sexy.
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on the one hand, i kinda agree... on the other, it was decently close and he would've been moving into scoring position with 2 outs.
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sometimes i can't tell if some of the crazy things we do on the bases are by some genius maddon/theo design to try to force the other team to make a mistake (like that) or if we're just loose cannons
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lmaooooooooo
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Already up and not a single post about the game?
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the cardinals just owned him too
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How the hell did you get banned from there (while lasting over a decade here, no less)?
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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PSD is littered with idiots and would still be a clearly better option.
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I don't know what I'd do, but I'm pretty sure that's not it. http://www.reddit.com/r/chicubs Place is a cesspool.
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Cubs add Chapman for Torres, et al. imb wishes we paid more
David replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
wan't it cocaine related? If not, at least i've convinced all my Cardinal Fan friends it was, so thats fun. Noooooooooooope. Just a bum ticker. Yup. He's probably just thinking of the reefer they found in his room. -
so i guess GRB is shutting down in a couple of weeks.
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no, not the mongo game. the 2008 comeback from 8-0 against the rockies.
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so we won this game? that's cool.
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By how much would you say you think the Cubs odds of winning a world series this year improve by replacing our current catching situation with Lucroy? Serious question. this is the dumbest stance actually, opposing this objectively dumb but hey the funny thing is there was no stance in that post, but you knew anyway what the actual right answer was. adding to this team in the hopes of somehow cementing (or, honestly, even significantly improving the odds of) a world series is a fool's errand and any significant long term sacrifice is ill advised.
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You win a World Series by maximizing your chances at going to the playoffs many times, not by trying to maximize the roster one or two years. There's no amount of maxing out of this roster that is going to change the reality of what the MLB playoffs are. The whole diminishing returns thing is very very real with regard to adding talent the 2016 Cubs.
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By how much would you say you think the Cubs odds of winning a world series this year improve by replacing our current catching situation with Lucroy? Serious question.
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If the 4-5% thing happens, it happens. There's not much you can do to move the needle on what can be projected to happen with 2 months to go. Obviously, next season is in play. That also puts Lucroy a year older (and he's still one season removed from being not good - only to illustrate that he's not some sort of 4 WAR lock being a year older). If you're going to keep bringing up that Lucroy wasn't good last year, it's also worth mentioning that he's been pretty darned good every other season since 2012. I like the chances of him being a 3-5 WAR player next year better than the chances of him being a 1 WAR player again. But like TT, I don't think the acquisition cost is worth the improvement. If we're going to give up the players it'd take, I'd prefer they be spent on areas of greater need. As for the bold, maybe. He'll be a 31 year old catcher. I'm not sure you can say that with much certainty. And it's not like I'm saying he's not good or I wouldn't want him. I just don't think he actually changes anything this season, so you're talking about a likely clear (but probably not huge) upgrade to the team's chances next year and a clear downgrade in subsequent years (possibly pretty big given the post 2017 options).
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Having a better hitter, defender, framer, and game caller for the rest of the season and playoffs makes a real difference. If you want to pick nits at 'significant' have at it, and like I said before I'd rather not because of the cost, but the improvement is undeniable. Every season is at the mercy of a handful of pitching elbows and shoulders staying intact and productive, so there's definitely appeal and benefit to capitalizing when we know we have those lined up. Theo said almost exactly that after the Chapman deal. I still think the Chapman deal was ill advised (but I'm gonna enjoy what he does on the field while he's here) and I think, if you put any stock into what the playoffs odds and the projections (very much the same type of thing you're using to show the gap between Lucroy and Contreras for ROS) say, 95ish% is just that. And then the playoffs where I still believe you can't do anything to beat the fact that even a great team has to go through 3 gauntlets where they have at least a 40% chance of ending up dead each time.
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If the 4-5% thing happens, it happens. There's not much you can do to move the needle on what can be projected to happen with 2 months to go. Obviously, next season is in play. That also puts Lucroy a year older (and he's still one season removed from being not good - only to illustrate that he's not some sort of 4 WAR lock being a year older).
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I'm not big on arbitrary end points (I mean, I'm happy to look to splits like that to look for signs of progress and whatnot, but definitely not for making big picture roster decisions). I know Lucroy is 30, had a bad year just last year, and given the ~96% chance at winning the division already, doesn't change things much this season. Add in Willson's age and contract status and it isn't even a close call for me. EDIT - And while not on Lucroy's level, it's not like Contreras has graded out as a detriment as a framer, so far. Let's look forward then. ROS ZiPS has Lucroy as a .339 wOBA compared to .306 for Contreras. Plus the defensive impact means that Lucroy is going to be a far better option. I'd personally rather not make that move given the likely cost, but there's little argument that the Cubs aren't better with Lucroy as the catcher this year and next. They've got the division locked up. What tangible benefit does that projected 30 points in wOBA actually have?
