Transmogrified Tiger

4 years, 68 million, per several folks.

This was fun to put together last year, so let's do it again. INCUMBENTS Hector Rondon - RH - 3rd year renewal - out of options Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 63 2.42 2.26 2.81 8.9 2.1 0.3 Repertoire: Fastball(95.7), Slider(83.5), Cutter(91.2) Rondon built on his velocity increase from the 2nd half of last year and was very good for a full-season at the MLB level. He doesn't have Strop's slider or a fastball that plays quite as well as Ramirez's, but he has better command and control than both, which combined with stuff that is no slouch, led to a terrific season as closer. No reason for him not to continue in that role next year. Pedro Strop - RH - 2nd year Arb eligible - out of options Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 61 2.21 2.66 2.82 10.5 3.7 0.3 Repertoire: Fastball(95.0), Slider(82.6) Strop's slider was again one of the best pitches in the game, and that along with very good fastball velocity led to him repeating his Cub success from 2013. Strop was especially unhittable as the season progressed, here's his line after missing most of May with a groin injury: 48.1 IP, 29 H, 8 ER, 56/17 K/BB, 0 HR, 1.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP. Filthy. The only reason he won't be the 8th inning guy is if 1) Rondon falters so he ascends to the 9th, or 2) some other reliever outpitches him(good luck). Neil Ramirez - RH - 1st year renewal - out of options Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 43 1.44 2.61 3.48 10.9 3.5 0.4 Repertoire: Fastball(94.3), Slider(86.9), Curveball(79.2) Ramirez was a revelation after joining the MLB pen in April. With his injury past he was handled pretty carefully(he pitched on 0 days rest just 5 times), but with Strop and Rondon shortening games to 7 innings that was an easy sacrifice. Ramirez's stuff and command had peaks and valleys over the year, but he still only had one month with a FIP above 2.80. He should be a fireman again this year, and it'll be a success if he can maintain this performance with fewer playing time restrictions. Justin Grimm - RH - 2nd year renewal - 1 option left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 69 3.78 3.20 3.63 9.1 3.5 0.5 Repertoire: Fastball(94.0), Curveball(78.6), Slider(84.2), Changeup(82.8) Grimm had a pretty good season for his first go at being a full-time reliever, were it not for the 3 excellent relievers in front of him he'd get even more notice. Brett pointed this out earlier in the week, but Grimm's velocity tracked similarly to 2013 Rondon: http://i.imgur.com/vVVG2bP.png And the results validate that too: IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BAA FIP 1st Half 41 4.57 8.9 4.6 0.9 .242 4.08 2nd Half 27 2.60 9.4 1.9 0.0 .200 1.90 If 2nd half Grimm with the improved velocity shows up in 2015, he's a 4th dominant reliever for Renteria to have at his disposal. Really easy to look smart managing a bullpen when you can make every game 6 innings and still have guys with FIPs in the 2s leftover. Wesley Wright - LH - 3rd year Arb eligiible - out of options Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 MLB 48 3.17 3.44 3.80 6.9 3.5 0.4 Repertoire: Fastball(90.2), Curveball(78.8), Slider(83.9), Changeup(84.5) Wright was a very nice pickup last offseason, and he did the job of a LOOGY very well. Fun fact: Wright faced 85 left handed hitters last year. He gave up 0 extra base hits in those 85 PA. With Russell gone and the other internal options not being overwhelming, Wright should be the primary LOOGY this season. HOPEFULS Brian Schlitter - RH - 3rd year renewal (I think) - 1 option left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AAA 8 3.38 3.83 4.5 3.3 0.0 MLB 56 4.15 3.61 3.92 4.9 3.0 0.3 Repertoire: Fastball(92.7), Slider(83.7) Schlitter was a safety blanket early on when the bullpen was on fire(thanks, Veras!), but his role diminished until he was demoted in August. Schlitter doesn't strike anyone out, and his walk rate is too high for someone who never gets K's. However, if there was a reliever that could succeed with a no-K profile, Schlitter could make it work. He gets good movement on his fastball and prevents loud contact(12 XBH in 56 IP, .079 IsoP against), and he's shown an ability to take the ball day after day without losing effectiveness. With 4 superior RHRP ahead of him he has an uphill climb though, especially as more big-stuff guys arrive behind him. Blake Parker - RH - 2nd year renewal - 1 option left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AAA 35 1.77 2.97 13.1 3.3 0.8 MLB 21 5.14 3.28 3.12 10.3 1.7 1.3 Repertoire: Fastball(90.5), Curveball(76.2), Splitter(81.4) I've always had a soft spot for Parker, and I was very happy when he had a strong 2013 at the MLB level. That made it all the more surprising when Parker didn't even make the MLB pen to start 2014. He went back to Iowa and humiliated hitters there, then could not take advantage of limited MLB opportunities. The ERA and FIP/xFIP gap gives some hope that he can still be effective, but bullpen spots are a lot harder to come by than they were in 2012, and while Parker has an option left it comes with several strings attached. Spring Training could be his last shot as a Cub. Zac Rosscup - LH - 1st year renewal - 2 options left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AAA 30 2.10 2.67 11.4 4.5 0.0 MLB 13 9.45 4.63 4.07 14.2 8.1 1.4 Repertoire: Fastball(92.0), Slider(82.2) Rosscup's high K, high walk, hard to hit, fastball/slider profile isn't atypical of relievers, but the fact that he does it from the left side makes him more interesting. He doesn't have the traditional L/R split though, and his brief MLB exposure fell flat, so despite a LHP-sized hole in the bullpen he's no lock to make the team. Arodys Vizcaino - RH - 3rd year renewal - 2 options left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 A+ 9 1.00 2.50 10.0 4.0 0.0 AA 13 2.63 2.67 10.5 2.0 0.7 AAA 18 5.40 4.79 7.9 5.4 0.5 MLB 5 5.40 5.93 4.82 7.2 5.4 1.8 Repertoire: Fastball(95.2), Curveball(83.0), Changeup(87.0) Vizcaino's stuff is bigger than any other reliever in the organization, but the command not coming back after all his time off due to injury is concerning. He could play himself onto the opening day roster and even into a setup/closing role by year end if the control is there, but right now it looks like he may be Iowa-bound so he can try and repeat his delivery enough to hit his spots. Eric Jokisch - LH - 1st year renewal - 3 options left Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AAA 158 3.58 3.54 8.1 1.8 0.7 MLB 14 1.88 5.30 3.70 6.3 2.5 1.9 Repertoire: Fastball(89.3), Changeup(79.3), Slider(84.2), Curveball(74.2) Jokisch is really interesting to me. He's been an effective starter in the minors and if his stuff plays up at all in relief he could offer a lot to the bullpen. On the other hand, his repertoire is very much a starter's repertoire, and he had zero platoon split at Iowa this year(seriously, it's freaky). If Jokisch can show an ability to get MLB hitters out, he makes a fine 2nd LHRP and long reliever option, and given the crowded pen that's not a bad thing to have both roles tied up in one person. Still, he's never been a prospect darling so he'll have to prove it. Armando Rivero - RH - 1st year renewal - 3 options left (not yet on 40-man) Level IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AA 34 1.56 2.29 14.0 4.1 0.5 AAA 30 2.97 3.57 13.6 3.6 1.2 Repertoire: Fastball(93-96), Slider, Changeup Like Vizcaino, Rivero is a wild card for next year's pen. Those Marmolian K rates are hard to ignore, but the Marmolian HR rate and mediocre control put a damper on the excitement. With the current depth Rivero will have to earn his way to the MLB pen, but he could be there with as little as a single injury or a strong Spring Training. OTHERS OF NOTE - The SP that don't make the rotation - While there's actually a very decent likelihood someone from this group(Jackson, Wood, Hendricks, Turner, Doubront, Straily) end up impacting the pen in a large way, I simply can't bring myself to write up every single one. If one makes the pen it would be as a long reliever, in Doubront's case maybe handling some secondary LOOGY duties like described for Jokisch. - Dallas Beeler - He got to MLB so he deserves a mention, but he's essentially Schlitter without the success. Not much optimism he breaks into that group - EDIT: Joe Ortiz: There's some statistical things you can squint at to like about Ortiz, but hard to tell how much impact he'll have. They claimed guys around this time last year that were gone by the Winter Meetings. - An external acquisition - Like Veras last year, we could see another reliever brought in to hedge against failure and injury. This seems less likely than previous years with Rondon/Strop/Ramirez/Grimm looking so strong. - Kyuji Fujikawa - I could definitely see Fujikawa coming back on a minor league deal and playing a part in next year's pen. His stuff looked like it was still there(17 K in 13 IP), but the command and control(6 BB and 2 HR in 13 IP) still need more time(if they do come back, see Vizcaino, Arodys). - Non-Iowa minor leaguers - Edwards and Johnson both have the stuff to be bullpen guys at the MLB level, Hunter Cervenka is a future LOOGY option, Matt Loosen has the stuff to figure it out, and Zack Godley was a poor man's Rivero at Daytona last year and could move faster given his age and success.

This is worth its own thread: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-chicago-cubs/

BTBS did a mock expansion draft, which was a lot of fun to read: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/11/6130703/the-2014-beyond-the-box-score-expansion-draft There's also team-specific rundowns too. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/13/6135647/the-wholly-fictional-2015-portland-beavers-expansion-draft-rosters-depth-charts http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/assets/5001084/portlandhitters_medium.png http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/assets/5001092/portlandpitchers_medium.png http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/12/6133907/introducing-the-expansion-draft-charlotte-divide-baseball-mlb http://i.imgur.com/kxJVI9L.png http://i.imgur.com/5fwerTr.png Some of the individual draft/protection decisions I didn't think were good/realistic, but it's nitpicky for a really fun exercise.

You know the drill, you determine what a "good job" is. Just be consistent in applying it. Past Results: August - 93% yes (28 votes) June - 80% yes (30 votes) April - 69% yes (26 votes)

I thought it might be interesting to have a thread for floating the different trade ideas people come up with, and to hear if others think they're good deals, realistic, etc. This will only really work if people are both constructive and nice, so please be both. I'll start. While some of the deals listed may naturally be linked together, try to consider each on their individual merits. Coghlan to the Yankees for J.R. Murphy - The need is clear, backup catcher is a dumpster fire, there's no immediate internal options, and FA doesn't look any better. Murphy is a young guy with a bunch of team control and good pedigree(2nd rd pick) that has done the job in limited time. He grades out as a decent pitch framer and his bat has played enough in MiLB to think he can avoid being an offensive disaster at the MLB level. For the yankees, Murphy is caught in a numbers game. He can't break the MLB roster with McCann and Cervelli around, and Gary Sanchez is coming over the top of him too, to speak nothing of Austin Romine also middling around in AAA. They're losing Soriano, Ichiro, and Johnson from this year's OF bench options, and while Coghlan isn't an ideal fit on a team with Beltran, Gardner, and Ellsbury on board, it's a small price to pay to get a guy who can swing the bat and keep Zoilo Almonte from siginificant playing time next year. Wada to the Royals for Jarrod Dyson - Dyson hasn't been a full time outfielder, but that's okay because he's still been plenty valuable and I wouldn't ask him to play 150 games either. He's under team control for 3 more seasons still, and his combination of elite defense and a LH bat that can hold its own is a nice match with the following trade. The Royals have a free rotation spot for next year and no good internal options. Trading older and less important half of their CF platoon to get a guy who fits their profile of SP acquisitions and should provide some steady production for a couple more years seems like a reasonable swap Jackson to the Braves for B.J. Upton and 15 milion dollars - This has been discussed before so I won't belabor it. Jaxon has been real bad, with a new team and coaching staff maybe they can straighten him out into an averageish starter, even if he never reaches his 3+ win peak. Same things can be said about Upton, who has been a disaster in Atlanta but still has talent to at least be a contributor in CF if not a star. How the 15 million is collected doesn't matter to me, if I'm the Cubs no matter when it's collected I'm applying it all to the 2017 payroll. Alcantara to Minnesota for Kyle Gibson and Trevor May - This is the one that gives me the most pause, which should be obvious because the other guys I'm trading aren't nearly as good/important. Minnesota's rotation is already crowded for next year. Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer, and Milone are already staking claims to spots, Pino has some decent perirpherals, Pelfrey comes back from injury at some point, etc. Trading for Mendy allows them to move Santana to SS and shore up their infield, and he seems like the type of player they'd really value so I'm less concerned about them wanting to trade for a CF with Buxton on the way. Plenty of room for both in that OF, although admittedly this could be a deal that benefits from a 3rd team. From a Cubs perspective, this would obviously be contingent on something like the above 2 deals happening. For giving up on Alcantara they get Gibson, who I feel would be primed for a breakout in an organization that actually values strikeouts from pitchers. May is another arm with good stuff to add to the rotation mix. He also has options so he's potentially more valuable as a 6th or 7th SP than some of the current depth.

Remember, how you define good job is up to you, just be consistent with your definition. Past results: Post-2013 Season - 93% - 29 votes Post-2013 Trade Deadline - 98% - 46 votes Spring Training 2013 - 100% - 40 votes Post-2012 Season - 84% - 31 votes Post-2012 Trade Deadline - 90% Yes - 42 Votes Opening Day 2012 - 87% Yes - 31 Votes

You know the drill, you determine what a "good job" is. Just be consistent in applying it. Past Results: June - 80% yes (30 votes) April - 69% yes (26 votes)

Right now we're just about 3 months into the MiLB season, and I thought it might be interesting to see how some hitting prospects have done if you split that into halves. I'm going to use May 15th as the cutoff here. While a pronounced split isn't a foolproof indicator, if you do have guys who've gone bad->good with their two halves, it's a better sign than the opposite. Baez Pre 5/15: 114 PA, .147/.237/.265/.502, 38% K%, 9% BB% Since 5/15: 156 PA, .287/.321/.538/.859, 31% K%, 5% BB% Alcantara Pre 5/15: 142 PA, .261/.279/.448/.727, 27% K%, 3% BB% Since 5/15: 159 PA, .317/.386/.585/.971, 19% K%, 10% BB% (wow) Bryant Pre 5/15: 167 PA, .324/.425/.620/1.045, 28% K%, 12% BB% Since 5/15: 154 PA, .370/.474/.835/1.309, 26% K%, 17% BB% (lol) Bruno Pre 5/15: 143 PA, .317/.413/.528/.941, 19% K%, 6% BB%, 8% HBP% Since 5/15: 80 PA, .264/.313/.333/.646, 19% K%, 6% BB%, 1% HBP% (eek) Almora Pre 5/15: 136 PA, .258/.287/.383/.670, 11% K%, 3% BB% Since 5/15: 144 PA, .250/.263/.278/.541, 13% K%, 2% BB% (gross) Vogelbach Pre 5/15: 144 PA, .242/.319/.320/.639, 17% K%, 10% BB% Since 5/15: 155 PA, .299/.400/.530/.930, 18% K%, 12% BB% Hannemann Pre 5/15: 153 PA, .218/.307/.323/.630, 25% K%, 9% BB% Since 5/15: 149 PA, .285/.349/.420/.769, 16% K%, 9% BB% Remillard Pre 5/15: 99 PA, .360/.433/.523/.956, 12% K%, 9% BB% Since 5/15: 39 PA, .222/.282/.250/.532, 18% K%, 8% BB% (yikes)

Fascinating longform read here: http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2014/6/18/5818380/effective-velocity-pitching-theory-profile-perry-husband The gist is that this guy's been promoting an ideology for pitching that is part intuitive, and part completely ignored. The basic premise is that because swing paths are longer for some areas of the strike zone, velocity in different portions of the zone are not equal. Therefore sequencing pitches in a way that the Effective Velocity is as disparate as possible can be really effective. Also interesting was the stuff on how MLB hitters are basically machines with bats timed to ~90 mph effective velocity, and while there's plenty of skill in being able to put bat to ball, it's not nearly as much in the hitter's control as we assume. Infographic spoilered for size.

You know the drill, you determine what a "good job" is. Just be consistent in applying it. Past Results: April - 69% yes (26 votes) Dale Sveum: 74% yes (338 votes)

Big all-caps bold faced caveat: Arrieta has 5 starts and 25 IP this year, all conclusions are of a "let's see if this continues and actually becomes something real" sort. Brett had a bit this morning about Arrieta's spike in ground balls: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/30/is-jake-arrieta-suddenly-a-groundball-stud/ That made me curious if his pitch mix had changed at all this year, and sure enough it has. After not throwing a cutter at all prior to arriving in Chicago, it's up to 10% of his pitches this year, replacing his slider. What effect is that having? Well the aforementioned increase in ground balls is a big one, if he qualified he'd be 22nd of 101 qualifiers in GB% after being well in the lower half in years prior. Maybe just as important as the ground balls is what the cutter is doing to LH hitters. Arrieta's career line against RH and LH: RH: 875 PA, .245/.319/.365/.684, 20 HR LH: 1028 PA, .270/.356/.468/.823, 36 HR And now this year with heavy cutter usage: RH: 59 PA, .294/.356/.333/.689, 0 HR LH: 52 PA, .271/.327/.333.660, 1 HR Like mentioned above, we're talking about 100 PA so there's a ton of other reasons for that to have happened, but the combination of cutter usage, ground balls, and LH effectiveness is difficult to ignore. Arrieta's start so far has him on a pace for nearly a 4 fWAR season, so he could even regress a bit from this pace and still be a nice success story, especially since he's under team control for 3 more years.

http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/26/justin-ruggiano-back-to-cubs-ryan-kalish-heads-to-iowa/ I don't really understand why it's Kalish going down instead of Coghlan. Kalish was the guy before the season, he has more positional versatility, they hit same handed, and Coghlan has done nothing to impress since joining the team(4 for 26, no XBH), so what changed?

MANNY RAMIREZ IS GOING TO BE A PLAYER-COACH AT IOWA

It's back, now with a whole new manager to criticize! Remember, you determine what a "good job" is. Just be consistent in applying it. Past Results: Dale Sveum: 74% yes (338 votes)

Looks like Veras was cool with the fake injury after all. I'm honestly curious if he ever makes it back on the 25 man roster at this point.

Levine was on the radio this morning re-hashing this article from a couple days ago, with more focus on a potential trade than the contract negotiation bit: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/04/05/levine-samardzijas-days-in-chicago-growing-short/ He mentioned while early season trades of that magnitude are rare, the rash of injuries this spring might make things happen sooner than later. He reiterated the Blue Jays were the most interested(also mentioning Atlanta), specifically mentioning Sanchez while alluding to two pitching prospects, which to me sounded like a pretty clear reference to Stroman too. The implication was that both need to be included for the Blue Jays to have a chance at Shark. For those looking for more insidery info, Marlin Bystro spoke up on the topic: Personally, KC and Toronto are the names I want to hear if Samardzija is going to be dealt. Get 2 of Ventura/Duffy/Zimmer or Stroman/Sanchez/Nolin and a 3rd interesting but less important guy, and something could work.

If no one posts in this we can remove the month tag. Dodgers/Padres starting on ESPN now. Cashner has decided to go with the "pay zero attention to my face for 3 months" hair/beard combo, looks horrible.

Mooney says the team is looking into John Axford, presumably as the nominal closer: http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-looking-axford-search-potential-closer Axford is interesting. His K rate has declined a bit from his glory years in Milwaukee, but so has his walk rate, and his velocity is still pretty great. From a superficial look, it seems like he's had some extreme swings in HR rate that have led him to either be dominant(early Milwaukee, St. Louis) or downright bad(late Milwaukee). If he can settle his HR/FB rate somewhere between the 4% and 18% extremes, he'd be a very good candidate for a couple million bucks.

Feel free to use for Cubs or non-Cubs stuffs. Mooney and Rogers both say that Bard will be a non-tender, Mooney went on to say that they may try to bring him back on a MiLB deal.

Next year's pen is going to be really interesting, as there's a ton of legitimate candidates relative to recent years. I wrote way too many words in the below post as a starting point, feel free to chime in with your favorite candidates or how you see the pen shaking out. LOCKS Pedro Strop - RH 2013 (Orioles) - 22.1 IP, 7.25/5.51/4.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 9.7/6.0/1.6 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 35 IP, 2.83/2.31/2.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.8/2.8/0.3 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 1st year arb eligible, zero options left Repertoire: Fastball (95.8 mph), Slider (82.7) Strop has the most unhittable pitch in the game, and he was dominant in a Cub uniform with it. With only 35 great IP last year and a history of control problems one worries that Strop reverts back to his pre-trade form, but he's a cinch to start the year in a late inning role. Blake Parker - RH 2013 (AAA) - 17.1 IP, 2.04/2.86 ERA/FIP, 13.3/5.1/0.5 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 46.1 IP, 2.72/2.90/3.54 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.7/2.9/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 2nd year renewal, two options left Repertoire: Fastball (91.9 mph), Slider (78.4) Parker's long been a favorite of mine for his MiLB K rates, and he finally showed that at the MLB level this year. He too has had his problems with command that could re-surface, but he's currently the set-up man and it would take a complete breakdown in ST for him to miss the Opening Day roster. James Russell - LH 2013 (Cubs) - 52.2 IP, 3.59/4.45/4.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.3/3.1/1.2 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 2nd year arb eligible, three options left Repertoire: Fastball (89.1 mph), Slider (81.5), Change (80.9), Cutter (87.6) Some might not think of Russell as a lock, and while I think it's far from certain he's in a Cub uniform next year, I'd be very surprised if he was in Iowa come April. After a breakout 2012 that not only solidified him as a reliever but one that could get out LH and RH(thanks to his new cutter), 2013 wasn't so great. Always a fly ball pitcher, he didn't miss enough barrels(especially against RH) and gave up a ton of HR(especially against RH). While 2013 put to rest the idea of Russell as a 8th or 9th inning mainstay, he's still quite good against lefties, and that should be his primary purpose in the 2014 pen. ROTATION HOPEFULS Jake Arrieta - RH 2013 (Orioles) - 23.2 IP, 7.23/4.61/4.84 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 8.9/6.5/0.7 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 51.2 IP, 3.66/4.94/4.51 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.5/4.2/1.2 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 3rd year renewal, one option left Repertoire: Fastball (93.9 mph), Curve (80.4), Slider (89.0) Arrieta was effective enough and showed enough promise for people to dream on his stuff translating more at age 28 with a full year of Bosio's tutelage. However, even isolating his Cubs performance it's not great peripherally, and one can't help but dream on his very good stuff making for a great reliever in short stints. I would guess the Cubs give Arrieta more chance to fail as a starter first, especially with Shark likely to be dealt there will likely be room for him in the rotation. Carlos Villanueva - RH 2013 (Cubs) - 52.2 IP, 4.06/3.86/3.97 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 7.2/2.8/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - Last year of FA deal, zero options left Repertoire: Fastball (87.7 mph), Change (80.2), Slider (82.1), Curve (74.0) Villanueva was the odd man out of the rotation when Garza came back, and then struggled to make it back into the rotation while different guys with more team control got looks. Villanueva's diverse repertoire doesn't inherently lend itself to a relief role, but he was much better peripherally in relief, good enough that he'd be capable in a later innings role. Depending on your opinion of the options at hand, Villanueva is either barely holding onto a rotation spot or is the swingman in the pen. That swingman role is perfect for him, but his 5 million salary might prove a little too rich for that lower leverage position, which could make him a trade target given his contract and 2013 success. Chris Rusin - LH 2013 (AAA) - 121 IP, 3.35/3.66 ERA/FIP, 5.1/2.0/0.6 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 66.1 IP, 3.93/4.75/4.46 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 4.9/3.2/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 1st year renewal, two options left Repertoire: Fastball (87.8 mph), Cutter (84.5), Changeup (78.8) Rusin had a very strong string of effectiveness as a starter broken by two disaster starts at the end of the year, raising his ERA a full run and his OPS against by 50 points. If you believe in Rusin you'll see that MLB success(along with steady MiLB numbers) combined with more Bosio inflence(cutters for all!) and see a poor man's Travis Wood. Detractors will see a very stark platoon split, lack of dynamite stuff, and see a reliever. I personally see the latter and a good LOOGY to add to Russell in the pen, but so little is certain for next year's rotation that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him getting rotation innings, if only as a placeholder until a better prospect is seasoned. Justin Grimm - RH 2013 (Rangers) - 89 IP, 6.37/4.79/4.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.9/3.1/1.5 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (AAA) - 42 IP, 4.68/2.77/ ERA/FIP, 8.7/3.6/0.2 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 1st year renewal, two options left Repertoire: Fastball (91.6 mph), Curve (77.8), Changeup (82.8) Grimm is a bit of a forgotten man, and if you ask me one of the most likely candidates to surprise next year. 2013 for him would best be summed up as terrible superficially and decent peripherally. While his repertoire and performance gives off a bit of a "low ceiling finished product" vibe, it's easy to forget he was only drafted in 2010, and some evaluators felt he needed more AAA time to refine his pitches. Grimm logically fits into the same role that Villanueva is slated for currently. With Villanueva on board, more left to learn, and options in the bank, he's also a logical fit for Iowa to start the year. What will be interesting to see is if Villanueva is traded or becomes a clear rotation piece, if they exercise that patience and give Grimm more time in Iowa, or if they ask him to step into his likely future role right away. Kyle Hendricks - RH 2013 (AA) - 126.1 IP, 1.85/2.65/ ERA/FIP, 7.2/1.9/0.2 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (AAA) - 40 IP, 2.48/3.18/ ERA/FIP, 6.1/1.8/0.5 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 1st year renewal, three options left Repertoire: Fastball (~89 mph), Curve, Cutter, Changeup Hendricks is light on stuff and heavy on command, K'ing enough guys and preventing enough HR to be interesting with his miniscule walk rate. With just 40 IP in AAA and no 40 man spot, he seems very likely to return to Iowa, but with the rotation in flux he could stake a claim in ST. If the FO is bearish on his future he could also snag a long relief role in the pen before long. THE REST Hector Rondon - RH 2013 (Cubs) - 54.2 IP, 4.77/4.40/4.42 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 7.2/4.1/1.0 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 2nd year renewal, one option left Repertoire: Fastball (93.8 mph), Slider (80.7), Cutter (91.1) Rondon's 2013 was very much a tale of two halves. To wit: Thru June: 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, .816 OPS, 21/12 K/BB After June: 28 IP, 3.54 ERA, .659 OPS, 23/13 K/BB The biggest driver in that improvement was his fastball velocity, which hovered in the low 90s in April and May but was sitting north of 95 by year end. While Rondon could get AAA time if they were interested in him being a starter, I say if the velocity is still there in February then there's no reason for him not to be a middle relief mainstay this year. Rondon had an extreme reverse platoon split in 2013(.908 OPS v. RH, .546 v. LH), so there's likely even more room to grow from his in-season improvement if he can be more effective with the slider(-3 runs in 2013, -1.9 total). Kyuji Fujikawa - RH 2013 (Cubs) - 12 IP, 5.25/2.80/2.85 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 10.5/1.5/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9 Contract - 2nd year of FA deal (2015 team option), three options left Repertoire: Fastball (92.3 mph), Slider (83.6), Cutter (89.8) While the enduring memory of Fujikawa's 2013 is a few high-profile blowups prior to his TJS, he was actually very solid peripherally in his very brief stint. It's difficult to draw many conclusions from his performance, but considering his TJS was relatively early last year(early June), one would hope with a successful rehab that he'd be a factor in middle relief in the 2nd half. He should be motivated to establish himself, as the odds of his 5.5 million option getting picked up are slim and he'll be working for his next(last?) deal. Arodys Vizcaino - RH 2013 - Did not pitch Contract - 3rd year renewal, three options left Repertoire: Fastball (95.9 mph), Curve (81.7) Vizcaino was always more likely than the average top prospect to end up a bullpen arm due to his lack of size and 3rd pitch, and his complications in returning from TJS are another data point pushing him towards the pen. It's worth remembering, especially since to most fans Vizcaino has always been just words on a page, that his stuff pre-TJS was as good as it gets, and early returns post-surgery are that he's maintained that stuff. Projecting a guy who hasn't thrown a meaningful inning in nearly 2 years is a fool's errand, but if the FO sees him as a reliever like I do, then Vizcaino's performance will determine his readiness. He and his triple digit fastball will be a late inning relief candidate once healthy, when(if?) ever that is. Chang-Yong Lim - RH 2013 (AAA) - 11.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 12/4 K/BB 2013 (Cubs) - 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 5/7 K/BB Contract - 1st year renewal*, three options left Repertoire: Fastball (89.9 mph), Slider (78.1) Yet another TJS rehab guy, Lim finally made some real appearances in the second half. If his control can come around with 6 more months since his surgery, then he should be in the mix for middle relief from the right side. * I recall some details about Lim having an option for several million this year, and the implication that he could soon be an FA with it. Since no one else has really mentioned that as a possibility, I'm assuming I'm crazy and he'll make the minimum with 6 years of team control still to go. Zac Rosscup - LH 2013 (AA) - 43.1 IP, 2.49/2.07 ERA/FIP, 13.7/4.0/0.4 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 7/7 K/BB Contract - 1st year renewal, three options left Repertoire: Fastball (92.5 mph), Slider (82.8) After striking out everyone in sight at AA for most of the season, Rosscup barely got the chance to do the same at AAA(7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 17/6 K/BB) before becoming a September callup. Like with most relievers he's flirted with walk trouble, but the obscene K rates paper over a lot of ills. No one hit Rosscup all that well last year, but his MLB role is likely a LOOGY unless he taps into the Bosio cutter magic. Russell's status and the FO's opinion of Rusin will determine whether he starts in Iowa or with the big league team. Alberto Cabrera - RH 2013 (AA) - 112.2 IP, 3.20/3.63 ERA/FIP, 8.55/3.1/0.8 K9/BB9/HR9 2013 (Cubs) - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 4/5 K/BB Contract - 1st year renewal, zero options left Repertoire: Fastball (92.9 mph), Slider (82.9) Cabrera is a fastball/slider guy who has seen his stuff play up in relief(105 K in 82.1 IP at AA/AAA/MLB) but hasn't been able to develop a 3rd pitch to stick as a starter. Now out of options, I'm not sure he's shown enough to even get the benefit of the doubt when competing for a middle relief role. My best guess is he ends up in another organization and becomes one that got away if another team can help him be a little less hittable. OTHER NAMES OF NOTE Brooks Raley - LH - He's got a 40 man spot, and therefore an outside shot if injury/roster movements jump him up the list of LH bullpen options, but with the 40 man full this early in the offseason, he's a prime candidate to be DFA'd himself. Neil Ramirez - RH - Another name from the Garza deal that's gotten a bit lost in the shuffle, Ramirez has big stuff if he can stay healthy. He was very good in his brief Cub debut and by having a 40 man spot would be a prime candidate to be an injury fill in if he starts 2014 well. Daniel Bard - RH - Has the stuff and past history to dream of being a very good reliever again, but he's gone full Ankiel at this point. With his contract situation he's a near cinch to be non-tendered, and if he's still with the team come ST has an uphill climb to claim a spot. Dallas Beeler - RH - The FO thinks enough of him to put him on the 40 man roster, but I doubt he fits into any bullpen discussion in 2014 unless many things go wrong and he takes a big step forward. Armando Rivero - RH - The Cuban is a dark horse for next year's pen. Definitely showed the stuff(13.4 K/9) and is of the age where he should be approaching MLB readiness. On the other hand, his unremarkable control and hit prevention at AA and lower combined with his lack of a 40 man spot make him pretty easy to start next year at Tennessee or Iowa, where he may or may not force his way into consideration. Free Agents - There's been rumblings that the team may want to add a reliever, maybe even a "closer" to hedge against the risk of relying on Strop and Parker so heavily. I've seen Tim Stauffer and Edward Mujica's name mentioned, although if the payroll is falling at all relative to last year, it seems unlikely that they would commit a decent percentage of the spending money to a pen arm.

I need 2 RBs and a Flex from this group: Bush @ Chi Stacy @ Ind MJD @ Ten Nicks v. Oak Leaning towards the 3 backs, but MoJo Drew has burned me more than a few times this year.

Remember, how you define good job is up to you, just be consistent with your definition. Past results: Post-2013 Trade Deadline - 98% - 46 votes Spring Training 2013 - 100% - 40 votes Post-2012 Season - 84% - 31 votes Post-2012 Trade Deadline - 90% Yes - 42 Votes Opening Day 2012 - 87% Yes - 31 Votes