Transmogrified Tiger

The format takes a minute to get into, but this is great: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18961336/how-keep-mlb-being-boring-50-year-plan A fictionalized future illustrating the unintended consequences of rule changes.

2008 Fukudome at the plate with Heyward's baserunning and defense is a 3-4 win player.

I'm not saying it is, purely on a $/win standpoint. I just don't think it's some automatic laughable disaster. $18M is not a ton of money in today's game, and it's for 3 years. They're likely to get some negative value out of it but it's not something that will hamstring them in any significant way unless they choose for that to be the case. And there's at least some value (I have no idea how to quantify it) in avoiding pissing off the vast majority of your fanbase by letting him walk. If they had some readily available replacement coming up in the minors, I might feel differently...but vs replacing him with Montero or Hundley or whatever after 17...meh. If they actually were to replace him with Lucroy, then, well, yeah. I don't think a player like Molina needs to be worth it to an extreme mathematical degree, but if you have to squint to see an above average player, then paying someone 18 million(which by AAV is still a top 40 salary in MLB) is a hard bridge for me to cross. The also have a future catcher in Carson Kelly, a consensus Top 100 prospect, starting this season at AAA. And really, those facts underscore why it's silly to make that decision now instead of after the season. Molina isn't going to be such a hot commodity that you wouldn't have the inside track to sign him, and the odds of his value going up instead of down are very low. Take the year to see how gracefully he's aging, and how loudly Kelly is knocking on the doorstep. The consequences from waiting are much less than the consequences of acting now.

Molina is already signed for '17, so a 3 year deal covers the years he turns 36-38. Even for a catcher he has a ton of miles on his legs, he's caught at least 130 games 7 of the last 8 years, and the one that he didn't he missed 7 weeks with an injury. He's only one season removed from a 1.3 fWAR season, although that probably undersells his defensive contributions. He did bounce back last year, but it was largely BABIP fueled, as he's not at all likely to repeat a .335 BABIP. Going back down to his career average of .300 puts him below average again, and that's before we get into any age-specific decline, like how his CS% fell off a cliff to below average last year. Again, framing and other defensive abilities are probably undersold, so you probably aren't paying upwards of 20 million for a well below average catcher, but when you have to squint a bit to get to an outcome where Molina gives you 6-7 wins over those 3 years, then giving him 55+ million for those years is not a good decision.

did that guy just roll Nagbe from behind at 20 yards out and not even get called for a foul

Cameron is hurt. Klejstan probably isn't a better option than Jones for a midfielder whose role is mostly defensive.

The defense isn't great but that's because they've lost an entire back line's worth of depth. Swapping Jones for Lletget doesn't seem like a huge difference in the attack from the team that scored at will on Honduras.

Seeing that it was a concerted effort to hijack the AMA by Barstool really lowers my enjoyment of Dykstra's PR event being ruined.

NL West: Dodgers Central: Cubs East: Nats WC: Giants, Pirates AL West: Mariners Central: Indians East: Red Sox WC: Blue Jays, Rangers Flip a coin to get your playoff results.

Almora is having an interesting spring. Last year when he got similar chances his spring was very much in line with what you'd expect him to do in MLB given his career to date, it was bad: 46 PA, .244/.255/.311, 7/1 K/BB, 0 HR This year he still isn't taking any walks, but power and K's are both up substantially. Entering tonight: 56 PA, .309/.316/.618, 12/1 K/BB, 3 HR You don't want to extrapolate too much, but trading K's for some pop would be a nice thing for Albert. Will help him earn a few more walks from careful pitchers, and he has plenty of room to add some swing and miss without it being debilitating. League average offense from Almora with his defense would be incredible. For comparison, Kevin Pillar has put up 7.5 fWAR the last 2 years with a wRC+ below 90 and elite defense. He also swipes 15-20 bases a year, but if Almora makes up that gap with the bat then you're talking about a guy with a 3 win floor. That's probably optimistic, but if they let Almora face the right pitchers then you could see a Javy-like scenario where his rate of production exceeds his true ability if he played every single day(thanks Joe!).

Last year had a 5 man bench, this year it will be 4. Together Szczur and La Stella combined for 369 PA, and Coghlan had another 128.

Seems like it's almost time for Syndergaard to Dravecky himself and finish the cycle.

"Again" implies that Arrieta fixed the problem, which never really happened last year. That said, it's difficult to draw much of anything from the ST environment, and the author notes as much.

Apparently Brooks' dehydration/sinus infection is enough to keep him out, he was sent home along with Lletget, Morris, and Orozco. Arriola the only new addition brought in. I guess they'll go Zusi-Cameron-Gonzalez-Villafana across the back?

why yes Youtube, I will watch this related video

*cackling intensifies*

unbelievable

Wonder how many cards Espinoza will have deserved by the end of this one. I count about 2 so far.

The implicit "Klinsmann was too dumb to play Bradley in the right spot" is cracking me up.

Pulisic is magic

[tweet] [/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/845249982571556864[/tweet] [tweet]https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/845250587612536832[/tweet]

One of the most hilarious hero ball possessions I've ever seen.

Well DJ was sitting around 93 I believe with his exit velocity last year. That will play in any park. But he has largely been a similar hitter prior to that, relying on an inside-out approach. But the exit velo shows that the bat speed is certainly legit and the potential for power is there, even without Coors. This is not a very accurate interpretation of exit velocity. Maybe in a park whose dimensions are the reason for it being a hitter's park, but Coors is flattening breaking balls, which makes them 1) easier to drive and 2) forces pitchers into more fastballs anyway. There's also some potential measurement hazards of exit velocity calculated at altitude, but that's secondary to the point. I can't go to a funhouse of mirrors that shows I'm 9 feet tall and say that makes me 9 feet tall elsewhere, same logic applies.