Transmogrified Tiger

Feels like there's a pretty straight line for Bryant to the Phillies right now. They're publicly interested and among those teams the best fit in terms of competitiveness and still current interest. Plus he can play with Harper.

Does this strike anyone else as a little weird? They don't play the same position, Correa is widely understood to be more desirable and worthy of a (much) bigger deal, and as far as I know they don't have any of the same suitors. This is guesswork, but what strikes me as more likely is that Correa isn't getting any super long offers(8-10 years) to his liking from the Yankees, Cubs, etc. So the Astros(who IIRC maxed their offer pre-FA at 150 million) re-enter the picture as a more desirable short term option, and Rosenthal just so happens to write a 'what if Correa took a pillow contract' article. So now it's a waiting game to see if that plus the time pressure of any post-Correa contingent moves are enough to get a team to blink. That risk can go both ways though, because there's very little risk if Correa is willing to take an existing ~7 year offer from someone, but if he is seriously considering a 1 year deal or a deal that heavily incentivizes a 1 year opt out, he's gonna want to get into camp ASAP so he can put another contract year season together. Or maybe this is all made up and he signed with the Astros last night but no one cares to leak it, I dunno.

Not a CBA thing but feels like the best home for now, the Atlantic League gets a couple new experimental rules. I love the double hook and I get the idea of creating an incentive for getting to 5 IP to cut down on SP commodification, but that change makes it lose some luster for me. The dropped pitch thing is very interesting, especially since it seems like it applies regardless of count. Gonna have to think about that one a bit.

So if we assume Correa isn't going to happen for whatever reason, what's your preferred positions to fill and targets for them? For me it's: SP: I really want Paddack, like I really really want to make that happen. If it's not him maybe one of the Marlins SP could be shook loose but otherwise it's an off the board thing because the SP options are grim RP: Looking at the list, Mychal Givens would be a big help and I think he'd be interested given the lack of late inning uncertainty and the potential chance to close. I'd also add another LHRP but that can be more of the Chavez/NRI variety since I don't see any terrific candidates OF: Ideally this player would be young enough to not be post-peak immediately, left handed but doesn't need platooning, and can at least be playable in RF. Conforto is all 3 but costs extra comp, Suzuki and Schwarber are 2 of 3, and Myers is only 1 but hits RHP fine and might be free/the path to Paddack Bat: This is probably a 1B type bat but if you find someone with 3B or starting OF versatility, all the better. Hosmer isn't the perfect fit but it does a good enough job if he brings you other fixes for free, I think Dom Smith is a decent buy low option, and I thought the same of Evan White but a RH 1B/DH is a tough sell. Ji-Man Choi might not be too expensive. Rizzo(or Brad Miller) isn't ideal but would also plug this gap.

But winning the game without a hit, via a sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly, is much more exciting! I hate the rule, but we saw A LOT of teams faile to convert that ghost runner. It's subtle and lower on the list of reasons, but this is also part of what I don't like about this. It flips the paradigm from needing offensive achievement(scoring a run) to win to needing to avoid failure(not scoring the runner). If you went to one extreme(bases loaded) or the other(runner on 1st and/or start with X outs) you'd at least still make the average outcome one where you needed to do something offensively outside the expected outcome in order to win.

Are you really bastardizing the competitive environment by implementing a rule that affects a handful of innings per year? When those innings decide 5-10% of a team's games then yeah it's gonna be consequential.

In 2017, NL Central teams averaged 26 extra innings played, with 7 of those innings happening in the 12th or later. In 2021, NL Central teams averaged 18 extra innings played, with 1 of those innings happening in the 12th or later. So we're bastardizing the competitive environment so teams can play one less extra inning/late extra inning per month. Good times.

You made me curious how crucial SS is for the best teams in the recent past. In the last 4 complete seasons there's been 18 teams with 95+ wins. Their SS were: 2021 Correa: 5.8 fWAR Adames: 3.9 (100 games) Franco: 2.5 (70 games) Seager: 3.7 (100 games) Crawford: 5.5 2019 Adames: 2.9 Swanson: 1.4 Semien: 7.6 Polanco 4.1 Torres (3.6)/Gregorius 0.9 Seager 3.3 Correa 3.1 2018 Baez 5.4 Arcia -0.4 (!) Semien 3.9 Gregorius 4.7 Correa 1.6 Bogaerts 4.9 So, you can technically be a great team and not have top end SS production, and there's several guys on this list who were not established stars/elite prospects when they gave this production, but it's really hard to be elite with makeshift SS. Now there's no reasonable outcome where the 2022 Cubs win 95 games, and as such I don't mind the idea that they give Hoerner a shot to see if he maybe pulls a Semien(or at least can look like the best version of someone like Swanson). But if that answer is no, then a whole lot else has to go right, because to your point there is nothing coming from within for a while.

I also haven't watched any Ligue 1 this year, but numerically it seems like they're just having Messi serve as a string puller more than a finisher. In 3000 minutes last year he had 27 non-penalty goals and 9 assists for Barca. This year in under 1500 minutes he has 2 non-penalty goals and 10 assists. Given that PSG won the title in October they were clearly adjusting workloads for older players like Messi to optimize for Champions League(hence the 1500 mins). Last year he scored 1 non-penalty goal and had 2 assists in 540 CL minutes. This year, 3 non-penalty goals and no assists in 630 CL minutes.

I have zero expectations of Simmons getting to even 3 wins, but setting aside his off-field stuff and the alternatives, I do think he's a smart buy low candidate and his skill set gets maximized with the roster around him. He's always going to be a BABIP reliant hitter, and because of that I don't think it's unreasonable for him to approach his career norms offensively, which combined with his top shelf defense gets you to an average or even slightly above average player. That's not a certainty and I haven't seen much that shows one way or another how predictive his 2021 was at the plate, but for something that isn't super low probability(having a relatively fortunate/normal BABIP year), getting that chance of a league average player who fits the team well for 4 million is a good deal.

I'm being impatient because it'll get answered in a couple weeks, but I really wish I could see how the position player group fits together. If you take it piece by piece I don't see any huge issues. Correa(or Story) would obviously be better, but if that doesn't/can't happen then I can see the logic for Hoerner/Madrigal/Simmons making a decent middle infield grouping. It'd be better if one were left handed, but their skill sets are diverse enough that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts, and that's the type of thing you need to unexpectedly compete. I also understand running it back with Schwindel and Wisdom on the corners. I mean, they combined for 4.5 fWAR in 615 PA, even with regression there's a decent bar to clear if you're going to upgrade on them, and while their age matters they're team controlled for a while. I also get the volume among the outfielders. Individually you can find plenty of flaws with Frazier, Ortega, Hermosillo, Ramirez, Heyward, or any of the MiLB guys, but rebuilds are accelerated through unexpected jumps in productivity and to do that you need to offer the time to do it. The hangup I have is that while it makes sense to treat each of these individually, in aggregate you have a big lack of investment on top of basically no LH bats. Was not signing a SS until Simmons leaving the door open for a right-sized Correa deal and now that group is set? Were they always planning on a LH 1B/DH bat(Rizzo rumors, Hosmer) to hedge against Schwindel? Are all the non-Happ(and maybe for different reasons, Heyward) outfielders just flyers they plan on tossing if they don't look great in ST and they plan to get a starting OF(Suzuki? One of the QOs now that Correa is out of play?) to reinforce? Or is that the OF group they think they have 2 starters from?

I kinda figured they'd try to limit his innings a bit this year anyways. Hopefully it's nothing structural. He threw 125 IP last year, there's only so much intentional limiting you can do while still trying to get him closer to a full starter's workload, since performance/pitch economy means he's not going 6-7 every outing.

If they extend him, you don't need me to tell you Willson is the catcher into the future. If they trade him, I assume they'll want to add another catcher. That could come in trade(e.g. Campusano in a Hosmer trade), they can afford someone not established in MLB given what Gomes can offer so there's a bit of target flexibility. If they don't extend or trade him, then he'll play out the year and go to FA where they can try some more to keep him or get a pick as compensation. Too far in the future to have a clear idea how they'd approach the position at that point.

Not sure what to make of the 2 teams most linked to Correa both getting defense-first SS this weekend.

Someone refresh my memory, is Hosmer's luxury tax number for the team that acquires him 15 million(4/60 still owed) or 18 million(finishing the 8/144 contract he signed)?

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I know he's old and doesn't have huge stuff, but he was good enough last year that I'm surprised he was only able to snag an NRI

https://twitter.com/ChicagoCubs_UK/status/1503018079563010048/photo/1

Jed answering the age old question of 'why don't they make the whole plane out of right handed hitters'

I'm generally with you, especially having double checked and seeing that both DRS and Statcast loved Andrelton defensively last year. However I do understand that there's roster math to contend with that makes us re-evaluate our priors about who has a firm grip on the roster. With so many(seriously, so so many) guys who could be anywhere from 500 PA to not making the opening day roster, it is a little unmooring to have your previous expectation shifted, especially since we just went 3+ months of ignoring/forgetting with the lockout.

I'll preface this by saying that I don't think that signing both Simmons and Correa is a particularly neat fit, and the *best* interpretation would be that Hoyer doesn't think Correa is a lock, and desperately needs to guarantee that there's a true defensive SS on the roster(and doesn't rate Alcantara that way). Having said that, I think you can come up with some reasons that don't shut the door on it even with the facts you're stating. - Correa hasn't played another position, but he has missed his share of time to injury. Insuring against that is worthwhile and can even be a point in selling him("we're gonna keep you in the lineup more often by DHing you every week or two") if that resonates with his mindset. - Simmons hasn't played another position because he's too good at the position he does play. It makes no sense to play an inferior defender there while both are in the lineup, so as a bench option his utility is in playing SS while others slide down the defensive spectrum. Admittedly Correa dilutes this benefit a bit, but if he's open to a handful of games at DH and/or 3B, great. Plus Correa isn't signed. But in any case, the idea that Villar(who I'd hesitate to call a SS or at least a better defender than Hoerner) or Iglesias(who has a worse defensive history than Simmons and hasn't played a different position in 9 years) have played other positions isn't a selling point in their favor. - Simmons isn't exactly in a position to make big demands of his role. He's 32, coming off a sub-replacement season, made himself into a potential locker room distraction, and signed for backup catcher money. Even if the odds of him being the primary SS are only 10%, that's probably more potential playing time than he could bank on from other suitors. - Simmons' skill balance is extra helpful on this team. While he is right handed when he does hit, we've talked before about this team really needing defensive strength to suck up the groundballs that Stroman/Hendricks/Miley are going to induce. You can make the argument that in a limited role he provides more benefit than a Villar or an Iglesias because his strengths are so maximized.

ZiPS sees no difference between Simmons and Alcantara(who can hit LH) with the bat, and UZR sees no difference between them with the glove since the start of the pandemic. That...had better turn out to be incorrect.