Transmogrified Tiger

Simmons was reinstated from the IL and then DFA'd, so that should probably be a wrap on his time in the org.

Might be a good time to refresh the payroll situation heading into the offseason. Fangraphs/Roster Resource does a great job with the details, but I'll try to simplify for these purposes. Opening Day LT payroll was around 177 million. That's 55 million below the 2023 luxury tax threshold. Increases from 2022 to 2023 are minimal. Happ's final arbitration year will likely be +5-6 million, Nico's first arb year will probably be +4-5 million, but the only other arb eligibles are pitchers who are getting minimal raises if they're even kept. Departures make sense to break down in distinct groups given how they will/won't be replaced: SP - Miley, Smyly - 13 million freed up RP - Robertson, Givens, Martin, Norris - 11 million freed up Willson - 10 million freed up Position players - Simmons, Villar - 8 million freed up Said another way, if you assume the reliever money gets earmarked to be used similarly next year, you have about 18-19 million to spare before even increasing the payroll.

I'm actually not sure how to value these SSs for Cubs. Pound for pound, Contreras is having the best offensive season of the top FA position players plus Hoerner's been one of the best defensive SSs in the league after playing a GG caliber 2B in 2020. I just might be fine signing Didi Gregorious to backup Hoerner and platoon with Madrigal as I am walking out with one of the SS. Just see a faster path to elite pitching rather than an elite, static offense...Bogaert's power is arguably declining much faster than Contreras' and shares the defensive concerns, Correa's coming off a down season all around regardless of age, Turner's got a 6% walk rate...I'm not sure any of these guys are vital to 2023 success unless the plan is to swap Contreras for one of them (which doesn't seem like a great plan?) I think you're a bit too far in your own head here. I don't think it's Correa/Bogaerts/Turner or bust given Hoerner's breakout, but Gregorius has been worth -0.7 fWAR since the end of *2018*, and the internal depth at SP is far better than there is on the IF.

Yeah, he's not looked good either from the PAs I've seen. Was he down at AAA until he came over? He had been called up prior to being traded but had barely played, so hopefully it's a matter of rust. He only had 7 PA at any level in the 3 weeks leading up to the trade.

0 for 9 w/ 4 K is not the start to the McKinstry experience that I hoped for

Since mid-May Steele is averaging 5.3 IP/GS, since late May Thompson is averaging just under 5 IP/GS (with a median of 5 IP), if you think they can be useful I don't think durability is the primary concern. Is it certain they'll be able to hold their performance for 32 starts next year? No, but that's part of the risk with most every pitcher, as we saw with innings-eaters Stroman and Hendricks this year. If nothing else we can say that their success is not a function of them being shielded from going deeper in games because once they got their legs under them they kept going deeper. Case in point, in the last 2 months Steele and Thompson have pitched into the 6th 11 times. I think you add a good SP, and trust that FA/Stroman/Steele/Thompson/Hendricks is fine to start the year with. If Hendricks falters or there's inevitable injuries of whatever severity, you have Wesneski and Kilian hanging out ready to go, with Wicks(and to a lesser extent Herz and Brown) shortly behind.

The dream (mine, at least): One of the top end starters + one of the top end shortstops. Plus a few relievers and another mid-scale hitter. Honestly, that should be all it takes to be at the top of the division. Verlander, Rodon, Bogaerts, a better bench including LHH IF and CF options like Frazier/ Gregorious and Philips/Keiermaier, and a closer willing to take a one year deal (Rogers, Fulmer, Jansen, Kimbrel, whoever) is probably where I’m at for the moment Pending injury or a big change in performance trajectory, I think you're only taking one starter. Definitely only one from the tier of guys making 15M+ AAV. But yeah, go nuts for an IF(I'd vote Correa since the money doesn't matter and he's no QO and 2 years younger), get a SP(if you've spent on Correa then I'm fine with the Eovaldi, Clevenger, Syndergaard tier instead of Rodon, Taillon, DeGrom), give Morel a defensive CF platoon partner(Kiermaier), and figure out the plan for catching, and you're in pretty good shape.

Eyeballing the current offensive leaderboards, there isn't a super clean fit. Maybe the Mets have a bottleneck and need to trade McNeil or Vogelbach, maybe Santander from Baltimore, maybe Minnesota needs to clean up their position player depth chart a bit and someone like Kepler or Kirilloff comes available.

Morbidly curious how long Herz can have more HBP than H in AA

Today’s game one included, Hendricks, Stroman, Miley and Smiley have started 47 of 103 games this year. Consider what kind of disaster this season would have been if Thompson and Steele weren’t able to perform as well as they have. So maybe I'm thinking about this wrong, but Thompson and Steele have performed above average, so they are far from the main causes of us being terrible. Sampson, somehow, has also given us 7 starts of a 3.74 ERA. So that leaves us with 16 games by the other misfits, which, to your point, went pretty terribly. But I don't think you really want to lean on a hypothetical of like, Hendricks or Smyly taking starts from Steele/Thompson and somehow giving us better results. The strength of Thompson and Steele's performance definitely dilutes the benefit, but you also have to consider the knock on effects that starting guys 5-10 on the SP depth chart for 55% of the games has on the bullpen. Especially when even the successful guys weren't eating up many innings when the need was most dire(because they weren't built up).

Just had a chance to think about it, but uh who is getting save situations post-deadline? Seems like it's Wick by default.

one of these games huh

For me it comes down to two things, who is ready for an opportunity and who can we learn enough about in 2 months that it impacts the trajectory of the offseason. Opinions will vary on those two, but for me it's helpful to start with who is not ready: - I would rather Velazquez be getting AAA at bats than spot/platoon MLB duty. He hasn't excelled at that level yet and I think his path to being successful at the MLB level requires more of that developmental work that isn't as easily done facing MLB staffs. Even if it means more Heyward in the meantime whenever he gets back from wherever he is right now. - I don't need to see Miley or Smyly start games. With innings limitations on Steele/Thompson and Hendricks' injury I'm not gonna be mad since there will be opportunity to go around, but I don't see a path to them getting signed for next year with the current depth so they're not a priority. - I don't need to see Mervis in Chicago unless he is destroying the ball in Iowa with great peripherals. I'm very excited about the possibility he can be a potential solution as soon as next year, but I'd rather have higher confidence in his AAA performance being real than get a smattering of MLB at bats that won't change his risk profile heading into the offseason. - Similarly, unless there's an injury crisis or he's completely unhittable in August, I would leave Kilian in Iowa for the rest of the year to make sure his command is where it was before his stuff ticked up. With Steele and Thompson's emergence it's less critical he be ready to take the first turn in the rotation next year, so I don't need to see him in MLB right away. - As a counter point, unless there are pitch lab reasons to keep them in Iowa, I'd like to see Newcomb get more MLB innings right away, and Wesneski to be first in line afterwards if there needs to be more starts sucked up. They both have demonstrated enough at AAA for me that it'll help to understand their ability to be next year's Thompson/Steele. - Unless there's a very specific adjustment they're waiting on them from Iowa, I would like to see Madrigal and Frazier get extended time in Chicago. Madrigal has pedigree and MLB success to the point where I'm not ready to give up on him after 30 poor games, even if his profile doesn't have 5 win upside. Frazier I still believe has some MLB success in there and in the worst case scenario you can give him PA at 1B because there are no good options there for the time being. - McKinstry should be getting as many PA as possible as well, we need to see how well that bat plays and if he's gonna be something like La Stella + defense at the MLB level, or a more athletic Rivas.

Dermody makes 40 even if the team site is completely up to date.

I would assume that him going to Milwaukee was mostly about helping San Diego's luxury tax situation(Lamet makes 4.8M) and not about Milwaukee loving him as a player.

I don't think the 40 man is going to be a huge consideration. The ultimate cause for that is the pandemic and many other teams are dealing with similar or worse crunches, so Rule 5 is going to be littered with a bunch of similar cases. There's gonna be plenty of room for the prospects that are potential first division starters, and they'll be risking some potential middle relievers or 4th outfielders in the worst case scenario. Plus if that were the main cause, it stands to reason they could've pulled off something like the Darvish trade, where all the pieces were ages away and didn't need rostering for a while.

Stabilized means "meaningful", not necessarily "predictive" or "sustainable". So we know it's not random noise, but we don't know how likely it is to persist.

Mervis going nuts in AAA and forcing his way into a September call-up where he makes a serious case to play opening day. Madrigal getting back to his 2020-2021 form, for all the handwringing about him he's only had 115 PA as a Cub compared to 334 MLB PA w/ a .317/.358/.406 line prior. Seiya continuing to adjust to MLB pitching and looking more like a 4-5 win player for 2023 than a 3 win player. Wesneski taking off with a small developmental tweak, and maybe getting the chance to prove it in Chicago in September. Newcomb (continuing to?) look like a potential MLB starter, and maybe getting the chance to prove it in Chicago in September. McKinstry pulling a Morel and making a great position-less platoon with him for 2023 roster planning.

Yeah, I really think this is the primary takeaway, that compared to last year the league had a much different valuation on Contreras than last year's QO'able rentals. It might be the new playoff format that pushed urgency(and therefore offers) down below the benefit of the QO, and it might be that the league hates Contreras so the best option is actively trying to keep him and tacking a QO on his value helps to that end. Probably at least some combination of the two, but given that Willson's bat plays at any position I tend to think it's more of the league's view of him as a catcher.

I'd personally rather have the comp pick. Valdez in particular is a below average defender and doesn't have any real prospect pedigree, in terms of immediate help he's redundant with McKinstry, who is the better player. One thing that is interesting to me is how *unique* Willson's situation was in terms of the QO impacting his value. I quickly looked at the list of deadline deals and I don't think a single player who is likely to get a QO got traded. The closest were maybe Vazquez or Benintendi which feel like big stretches. Now there weren't a ton of players who are likely to get a QO in total and no others that I can see on true sellers either. Rodon and Bogaerts both stayed with their teams too, though neither Boston or SF seemed interested in making themselves actively worse given their WC odds.

I’m at the game so this isn’t a fully formed thought, but I wonder if the lukewarm interest is reflective of Willson not having a robust FA market, further diluted now that he’d be saddled with a QO. That works as a FO strategy only if they really like Willson’s profile going forward, which seems uncertain to say the least. The other thought is if they have some internal limits re: QO free agents for talent pipeline purposes, and not dealing Willson for a 45 FV prospect is not better than either keeping him or being unrestrained in FA since they have the pick to keep the talent/draft pools high (this is basically how the dodgers approach QO)

Brown had apparently been called up to AA but hadn't pitched there yet. EDIT: He's Rule 5 eligible so needs added to the 40 man this offseason.

MLB Pipeline, unclear when exactly this report is from:

The replies to this are equal parts "who?" and "what I thought he was untouchable" and I'm not up on Phillies twitter to know who's being ironic or not. Wasn't in Fangraphs' preseason list after barely pitching last year, has incinerated High A so far this year.

Seems like he might get something out of it: In other situations in the past, the promise of playing time has been a motivator and would apply here.