Transmogrified Tiger

Doesn't really seem to be looking at the whole picture to just mention rolling snake eyes on the injuries to our starters, a good portion of which are bad when healthy, and ignore Steele and Thompson exceeding all expectations and then Sampson giving us like 10 very above average starts. Yes, 10% of the games were started by bad pitchers. But, Alec Mills was regarded as our 5th starter to open the year. Yes, sometimes players exceed expectation(Steele and Thompson) and sometimes they disappoint(Hendricks and kinda Stroman), that's a pretty normal state of affairs. What isn't normal is your best expected starters missing 40% of those starts due to injury, and mostly simultaneously for further damage.

But our bullpen has generally outproduced the rest of the team, after being projected to come in as 23rd in baseball (not to over rely on the FG numbers, but seems like a solid resource for this discussion). 21st in ERA, 22nd in FIP, 6th in xFIP (we're also bad defensively!), 15th in fWAR with, to your point, a ton of innings pitched, so not the most efficient way to get to league average. Again, was supposed to be bad, is bad, just maybe for different reasons. Projections don't represent a ceiling though, especially for something like a bullpen which is made up of a zillion small sample performances. Given how well the top half of the pen pitched(the only miss is Norris I think), with the benefit of hindsight I don't think it's unfair to say that projection was underrating the group. In order to get there they still had to have Leiter Jr, Swarmer, Mills, and Newcomb start more than 10% of the team's games. And you had to give dozens of relief innings to those guys plus Rucker, Gsellman, Espinoza, etc because those rotation fill-ins weren't available in the pen. Bottom line, I still feel comfortable saying the team/pitching staff as constructed was a bit below .500(mid 70s wins) and they rolled snake eyes on some variance, that happens. If anything it's somewhat fortunate because they've been able to answer some rotation questions through it and 2023 has a higher floor for the trouble.

A couple weeks ago David Laurila's notes column asked a former NPB pitcher now in MLB about the top pitchers: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-torontos-hunter-mense-played-pro-ball-with-a-teenage-giancarlo-stanton/

Seems like it might be an unpopular opinion, but I would not bother with calling up Hill, or even rostering him at the end of the year in all likelihood. He's not an upgrade in defense, power, or patience over Ortega, so the hope is that his hit tool sustains in MLB despite never doing anything like it at previous levels. Plus it seems fairly clear that his AAA line is driven by those first couple weeks at AAA which aren't proving sustainable: 5/31-7/3: 111 PA, .382/.432/.520 7/4-8/14: 113 PA, .299/.310/.420 I get the appeal of having someone with options, especially given the lack of LHH OF on the 40 man, but that type of player is available for basically free most years(like Ortega!) so I don't think there's a big opportunity cost. Plus I really don't think Hill is in much danger of not being around if left unrostered.

What counts as a major signing for you? They added a 5/100 and 3/71 contract last offseason, and not too many had longer than 5 years or higher than 24 AAV(and even fewer had both).

That’s all well and good but why should the assumption be that a former top ranked amateur who just lopped 11% off his K rate and added 40 to his wRC+ (a 21 YO Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ at the level, Hearn’s at 102) just be done making gains? Because Ks and batting average? He was showing the same flyball hitting, high Iso game even before this breakout, so why should the assumption be that they’ll go away? They might but what might happen seems less important than what is happening Consensus top 10 prospects in the low minors for Cubs with above league average K rates: Alcantara (27% Ks, above the league), Crow-Armstrong (28% at SB with a 7/50 BB:K), Hernandez (29%)….It seems very arbitrary to see all the upside there and not get why it’s probably going to be OK to look beyond K rate on a catcher (a LHH catcher at that) delivering an all around season with meaty gains (including, coincidentally, K rate and BA) Hitting is a weak-link skill, yours gets exploited until you fix it or fail out. Lopsided profiles exist, but they still require a minimum threshold of competence for the profile to not collapse, and lopsided profiles generally have higher highs than Hearn's. But don't take my word for it, I didn't check every name but I don't see a single big leaguer of substance with that combination of K and AVG in Low-A going back 15 years: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=0&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=20,1&pageitems=10000000000000&pg=0 The only ones I can see that even got a cup of coffee(e.g. Will Benson) got a mulligan on A ball and showed much much better hitting ability in that 2nd chance.

One of the things I'm finding tricky with plotting out the offseason is just how much flexibility is taken away when you sign one of the SS. Assuming a 35M AAV, you'd spend as much on a Correa and a Smyly as you did on Seiya + Stroman. I'm not saying you shouldn't sign one of them, but it does mean you have to make some tough choices with the rest of the holes they might try to fill, even if you assume they'll jump payroll all the way to the luxury tax line(which I think is too optimistic for 2023). On that note, the two uncertain decisions that seem to be the biggest factor in those tradeoffs are at catcher and in the rotation. There's literally no outcome for the catcher position that would completely surprise me, but the range of expenditures is significant. And given Hendricks' setback, Jed's comments about pitching depth and liking to integrate prospects via the bullpen, I'm wondering if they're going to try to add 2 SP this year, which could be done in any number of different ways.

It's because those good things start to go away at higher levels because of how bad the hit tool is. Right now the BB, K, and AVG paint the picture of a guy who really struggles to make consistent contact in the zone. What happens when he goes up a level and faces better stuff that has better command/control? The walk rate erodes and IsoP probably does too, and you're getting unplayable production from even a catcher. Now what happens when you go up a level again? And again? Obviously at 21 no one is assuming there can't be improvements made on his end, the point is that there needs to be big ones for him to even have a squint to see MLB future. Which is why people are gobsmacked at statements like Hearn being 'closer to the Top 10 than not'.

Call me crazy here, I might be really stretching it in 2022 by saying this, but batting average is probably not the ideal way to evaluate a catching prospect in A ball or even the low minors. It seems nuts to say, but I'm willing to to go out on the limb. I couldn't even say what the standard is anyway. What do you think it says about a player's hit tool if they're struggling to break .200 with a K rate north of 30% in multiple 200+ PA samples? What do you think that says about their ability to scale 3 higher levels beyond the current one without dramatic changes? Like I get it we all have our favorites that we want to cheer on that aren't necessarily consensus standouts, but we can also be clear eyed about their actual standing as a potential major leaguer.

Swanson is probably the hardest for me to talk myself into enthusiasm about, and it comes down to how confident I am in his bat. I haven't looked into it deeply to see if there's a good reason for his post-pandemic turnaround at the plate, but the career 80 wRC+ up until covid spooks me out of a big contract. Doubly so when the team really needs to get strong offensive production regardless of position out of their big signing given the rest of the roster.

Tom he's at low A with a .710 OPS and striking out 33% of the time, the bar is low for catchers but the Hearn thing is 'touch grass' moment if you're considering him a real prospect without significant sustained changes.

The big name teens have really run out of steam in the last month or so. Since the 4th of July games, Alcantara's hitting .233/.324/.344 and Triantos .207/.250/.304.

Steele pitched yesterday, Smyly is today does Contreras have a knock? He didn't play yesterday and isn't in today's lineup

I think they assumed that since Peter Crouch retired it wasn't necessary anymore. More seriously, it looks like Eurosport has a handful of options that go up to 15 if that helps: https://www.soccer.com/shop/products/footwear/mens-cleats-shoes?order=0&page=1&filter=price__11-250&filter=footwear_men__15

this one right here officer

Until he faced a 30 year old AAAA player who has homered in every game this series Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk Sometimes you're the Schwindel, other times you get Schwindeled

Steele's last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 16 H, 1 ER, 25/2 K/BB, 0 HR

.310/.428/.724 with 1:1 K/BB since the all-star break is pretty fun

Trusting the TV K-zone is always a little fraught, but per Marquee the ump got all of them right except the pitch he took for ball 3(which dove into the dirt and no one was upset about). There were a lot of very close calls on the corner tonight in general, and the ump seemed to get most all of them.

We went over this last year and it's even more true this year, the benefit of the players on the roster playing well means way more for the team's future than a handful of draft spots, the MLB draft simply does not work that way. This season they've solidified like 5 everyday or rotation spots that they didn't have at the start of the year, and right now the lineup is about half 2023 starters and half 2023 role player candidates, plus Contreras. The rotation is 60% 2023 contributors too. Wishing for the team to play terribly just because they aren't incorporating a bunch of Top 50 prospects is silly, but they did lose on a cheap HR so yay I guess?

Reyes is an enormous dude, it looks like Greg Oden is trying his hand at baseball when he's near any other player

Strumpf with a HR He is having the quietest .400 wOBA season I've ever seen. I feel like I never see him have a big game but the season line is plenty productive. Granted, the K rate is basically disqualifying, but you'd think we'd bring him up more often.

Cross quoting this because I'm getting a similar sense. On top of the reasons mentioned there, I'd also add the prioritization of high minors returns at the deadline(3 of the 4 players and the 3 most valuable being at AA or above), and the roster churn that is mostly closing the door on some players' 2023 chances(first Rivas, then Bote, now Schwindel). What I'm currently grappling with is how intensely they plan on trying to hit the accelerator. 1) I'm not confident how aggressively they'll spend. On one hand, smart money would be on them not going all in to push up to the luxury tax line, especially if to do so they have to add 3 players with 4+ year deals. But on the other hand, the 2024 roster has little in the way of marginal cost increases, and could potentially be dropping almost 50 million of salary(Hendricks/Heyward/Happ) without an urgent need to backfill any of them(depending on how the high minors SP and OF look in 12 months). So if there was a season where some short term aggression could pay off, it's this one. 2) I think they'll try to stay net-zero with QO players, so if they keep Willson that means no Taillon, DeGrom, Bogaerts, Turner, etc. It could mean Correa + Thor + Willson though 3) I'm skeptical that they'll make a significant buy trade. That doesn't mean I don't think they'll explore trades that involve trading minor leaguers for major leaguers, but I think they're just getting comfortable with the level of depth, and if they make a trade it might be less about spending capital to get a clear cut star and more about getting a player who they feel good about breaking out(Spencer Turnbull? Mickey Moniak? Trevor Rogers? a 1B/DH?). An exception to this could be if a star comes available for extenuating circumstances. Maybe the Red Sox need to trade Devers like they did Betts and he's open to an extension and you jump on that because he's 26, maybe the Padres need to sell high on Machado to avoid luxury tax pain. When I add those things together, I feel like the most likely outcome is at the top of the market they'll do something similar to last year, they'll add a significant position player and starting pitcher. I don't think Willson is plan A for that significant position player, and they'll see if his market develops slowly and they can maybe get him on a more opportunistic deal(more Grandal than Realmuto) if that presents itself, but otherwise be a little more aggressive on shorter term deals. That could mean going a little higher in the reliever market for a late inning arm, or finding a bridge position player solution that's higher end than Villar/Simmons, or making the SP acquisition an older arm who will take a shorter term deal(Morton? Verlander? Kershaw?). So in the end it could look something like: Correa, Clevinger, Narvaez, Kiermaier, and a cohort of RP similar to this year. That's not gonna make them surefire playoff contenders, but the biggest weakness(1B/DH) is easier to fix through the market or just luck than most other spots on the roster, and with even a modicum of SP health you'll be staying in the race past the deadline and playing meaningful September games.

Both teams have a Thompson that wears #71 that pitched in today's game, if Pat Hughes hasn't discovered this yet no one tell him or he'll be talking about it until 2026

Quick reaction, seems similar to the Frazier pickup, Frazier has louder tools but Reyes has a longer track record of hitting at the MLB level. Speaking of, this probably says that Frazier is about done getting a meaningful chances as a Cub. It might say something similar about Schwindel too given that Wisdom is moving over there more.