Transmogrified Tiger

If it wasn't buried on Paramount I'd probably find a way to watch their post-matchday shows even if I hadn't watched the games, it's that good. The first 30 seconds here is like the perfect distillation of the show

The other thing that crossed my mind in watching some of these playoff games is seeing former top prospects come good with a second organization and/or after waiting them out through their struggles. Crawford and Rosario were the two that came to mind today. Made me wonder if there's some former Top 50 prospects who have lost enough shine to be available or even buy low. Mitch Keller - probably was a little too good this year, but he was still only average and is an arb eligible Pirate with an excellent foundation for pitch labbery, maybe among the closest analogs to pre-Cubs Arrieta Michael Kopech - doubt the Cubs could take advantage here for multiple reasons, but in terms of performance, pedigree, and service time this is about the ideal Victor Robles - would hopefully carry minimal cost given his extended struggles and arb eligibility, but he's toolsy enough to be a Top 5 prospect, mostly fits a current need to improve CF defense, and as a result doesn't have to be an offensive stud to be a solid contributor Royce Lewis - I don't think the Twins are quite fed up with him and his fit on the current roster is not super snug, but the Twins have position player excess and maybe they're souring on his ability to stay healthy Mickey Moniak - got dealt at the deadline which hurts the odds he might shake loose again, but then again he was bad in his new destination and its the Angels. Less optimism about the bat being at all playable though Nate Pearson - the rotation ship has probably sailed here, but there's still closer upside if the Jays are done waiting for his health and results to reflect it

1. Yes, absolutely 2. Yes. 3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff 4. Yes! 5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans. I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year. 1 year of control for Devers.

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless. 1. Velazquez for Marquez 2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen 3. Assad for Kirilloff 4. Morel for Devers 5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

the House of the Dragon ad they just did on the TBS broadcast is maybe the most insulting in-game promo I've ever seen

Would agree, but Schwarber not singlehandedly donging the Cards out of the playoffs and Pujols/Molina somehow ending their careers with base hits are too far out of line with my preferred outcomes. It's reassuring to get confirmation we aren't in a dream/simulation I suppose. Though again, if the Padres and Guardians take care of business I'm gonna at least still wonder.

these results are so well aligned with my preferred rooting order that I'm starting to get suspicious that I fixed the games without realizing

we're never gonna be allowed to trade with a New York team again

strong "we're all trying to find the guy who did this" energy from Mbappe after he just signed a deal where he demanded roster input

So, I think the key here is that the official didn't see the fumble. It was more of a strip that a "punch out" and it wasn't until the slow-mo that I saw the fumble. I feel like if any other official would have seen the fumble, they would have picked up the flag. And if you see the ball taken, after the fact, it's not really reviewable to the point you take away the penalty. But if they don't see that the ball was taken away, it's a correct call.....by the rule. The rule is dumb and that may have been a borderline interpretation of that rule. But it's not a terrible call, all things considered, IMO. The ref's interview with the pool reporter claimed a fumble would not have changed his call. The ESPN rules guy(who was basically carrying water for every other call the refs made, including the soft defensive hold on the missed FG) pointed out that Jones braced his fall with his left hand(despite cradling the ball in his other arm), which should have meant no penalty regardless.

Chris Jones just got called for roughing the passer for falling on the quarterback when he had already stripped the QB and possessed the fumble, amazing

This is a similar thought I've had since last offseason and how the team spent when it did spend. I'd modify this to say it's not simply length, but length relative to age. I think Jed is *very* sensitive to how many post-prime seasons get guaranteed in long term deals. It's the only thing keeping me from saying it's a lock that they sign one of the SS. I also don't want to ascribe too much meaning to his comments, others on Twitter have pointed out that Jed holds his cards very tight and there's not a bunch of easter eggs hiding in his phrasing. That said, I think I would generalize to this: - They're going to add more position players than some folks seem to think. Some might logically take away that they won't need the next version of Villar, Simmons, Frazier(or at least all of them) with the depth that's popped up, but I'd say the minimum is 4 new position players and possibly more depending on who may be outgoing(Madrigal, Happ, prospect depth) and/or out of favor(McKinstry, Reyes, Ortega). - They're going to use more resources on position players than pitchers because they think the pitchers are further along as a group, and they trust their ability to get more out of less with pitcher acquisitions. We've gone over this very recently, but that could take the form of signing a 1 million pitcher(or equivalent trade target) instead of a 5 million pitcher, or signing a 15 million dollar pitcher because they think they can make him a 25 million dollar pitcher. I think the 'quality innings' bit points towards it not just being pure volume in terms of additions, but I wouldn't bet my house on that interpretation.

MLS is great! I'm gonna be in Orlando Sunday for their decision day game against Columbus(which is most likely a play-in game for playoff position). Should be fantastic.

I gotta say, I was very down on the wild card going from one game to a series, and a couple close games to start the format may be deceiving me. But the best of 3 over 3 straight days doesn't feel like there's much urgency lost so far.

All 3 games are in St. Louis so any series win will do that?

What was Edman's positioning there, double play width but just about in the baseline? Maybe they don't turn that particular DP on Segura but spot feels like the worst of all worlds

It is foolish to hope, but in this format burning Helsley for 30 pitches and not finishing off the win would be a worst case scenario for the Cards

is that Quintana doing tennis style grunts on every pitch

I for one am comfortable being very clear that you cannot roster Marquez. I get that the stuff is undeniable, but he hasn't pitched in 3 years and hasn't pitched above High A. The 1% chance of closer ceiling is not one you can afford this offseason.

If you want to go bigger with spend on SP1 for the offseason, Madrigal would be a decent starting point in a challenge trade for a cheaper/more aspirational SP2. That said, I'd be a little careful with how much we extrapolate the small sample size defense with McKinstry. He has a decent reputation, but at a glance it looks like his 7 games at SS are doing some heavy lifting in that 0.9 fWAR. He did generally get better as he got regular at bats and shook off the rust from not facing live pitching for a month, but I'm still skeptical that he showed more than Madrigal did. The profile fits the roster better, certainly, but there's a lot of flexible pieces already which means the occasional square peg can be worked around in the name of having the best talent/output on the roster.

That HR brings Bote to a 106 wRC+ on the year in 123 PA, with reverse splits at that(career wise he's split neutral). I know we've all written him off, but I wonder if he's got as much chance of making the team as someone like McKinstry.

I had forgotten Davis has that weird low follow through like Russell did.

His opponents have been favorable, but still that's now 0.7 fWAR in 6 outings/starts for Wesneski