Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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I agree to an extent. But I would never build a team with walks as my centerpiece. I would much rather have a hit than a walk. Like I said, the best case if to build up a player's pitch selection so they don't end up chasing pitches six inches above their head ala Corey Patterson. Corey's problem wasn't that he didn't take enough walks per se, it was that his pitch selection was crap, which lead to less walks and less hits than he should have had. I never said I'd rather hit than walk. When addressing the problems this team has, it's pretty clear what the team needs. Since you can't plan for timely hitting, and considering the Cubs were 2nd in both AVG and SLG but 9th in runs, it's a very logical conclusion to what's missing. Also, food for thought: MLB Walk leaders Boston Philadelphia NY Yankees Cincinnati Arizona MLB Runs Scored leaders Boston NY Yankees Texas Cincinnati Philadelphia -
The timely hitting was there, Jim. The guys who draw the walks in front of timely hitting were not. I'm not so sure that the timely hitting was there. We left a lot of runners in scoring position including a number of basesloaded situations IIRC. It's difficult to have timely hitting when there are not many guys on base to create timely hitting in the first place. Walks are fine but I'd rather have a team that relied on timely hits. You can't build a team around telling guys to walk. You can just try to stress pitch selection, which should lead to better hitting and more walks. EDIT: I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the top five for runners left in scoring position. That happened all the time last year. You cannot rely on timely hitting. You can't get "timely hitters". Everyone would like to come up with the timely hit, but you're just rolling the dice to see if you come up with success. When you build a team that can take a walk, not only do you have more opportunities to come up with that hit, but you aren't as dependent on the luck outside your control.
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The A's got Bradley for pennies on the dollar. They got Milton plus another solid bench player in Perez for someone who amounts to Brandon Sing that's 11 months younger.
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That puts Walker where most figure he'd be, below average but not at the bottom. Can someone point me to any place where PMR is contextualized more? I understand DER v. predicted, but what does that difference mean in relation to runs allowed?
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I'd personally answer it that the bullpen has a much bigger impact on the game, individually and especially over the course of a season, than a corner OF. Nothing is as reassuring as a solid pen, and nothing is as deflating as blown leads late. I'm not enamored with the Jones deal in context of what it does beyond 2006, but the Cubs can win many more games with a strong pen. That is one area I have no qualms about spending early offseason $. The bullpen doesn't have a bigger impact than the offense, and Jones contributes to a below average offense. And once again, it's not an either/or proposition. It was possible to upgrade both, but now we know for sure RF isn't an upgrade, and the jury is out to whether the big money relievers repeat their career years.
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BA Prospect Handbook is out
Transmogrified Tiger replied to rsmoler's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
What bookstore did you get the book from rsmoler? -
This isn't stinginess at all. It's how all arbitration eligibles work, regardless of organization. Very few actually go to arbitration.
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He would have made 2.75M so his 3.65M is a nice increase (he asked for 4M). That doesn't include his signing or performance bonus. He was slated to make around 3.5+, depending on the exactitudes of the performance bonuses and distribution of the signing bonus.
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Seems a bit unusual to void your contract and then settle for almost exactly the same amount.
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Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to JGalt73's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't buy that for Maddux. That's barely a stepdown from their prediction from 2004 188.0 3.56 33.8. I thought I saw he was at 28.1 last year. So they are assuming he'll improve? He'll turn 40 this year, and his past 3 ERA+ have been 105, 113 and 101. I realize he doesn't have any real comparables throughout history, but I think we would be lucky if he just doesn't regress. Counting on improvement seems far-fetched. note, I just googled VORP and Maddux for my numbers, so if some other source has something else, I could be wrong. BP has 28.1 for Maddux in '05. -
Francis Beltran - before he got hurt Chadd Blasko - before he got hurt Even Jason Wylie - before he got hurt. Marmol is a good comparison with Beltran. Beltran was a horse though. Marmol doesn't have quite the size, but a similar repitoire. Beltran was a starter at the point in his career where Marmol is now too. Marmol's been better as a starter than Beltran, though. Less wear on the arm too.
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Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to JGalt73's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Wow, Pecota was right with my .340/.420 prediction for Murton. -
Leaving at half was one of the best moves I ever made. I'm curious to see how long Alden will stay with Snyder. I'll say the same thing I said when Snyder was hired..... how many wannabe top tier programs hire a guy who has never been a head coach at any level? Any truth to the rumor that Snyder is dating Paige Laurie? I heard that before I left St. Louis. Well, KU hired Roy Williams w/ no head coaching exp, but your point stands. It probably makes sense to get a "proven" guy (Dusty alert) if you can. I have a very good source that says the Rick Majerus rumors weren't that far-fetched. Good. If they do fire Snyder, Majerus is the guy I want, as long as you have some semblance of reliability with his health. I can't say I was too thrilled when I heard Bob Huggins' name thrown around.
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Leaving at half was one of the best moves I ever made. I'm curious to see how long Alden will stay with Snyder. I'll say the same thing I said when Snyder was hired..... how many wannabe top tier programs hire a guy who has never been a head coach at any level? Any truth to the rumor that Snyder is dating Paige Laurie? I heard that before I left St. Louis. I've heard a bunch of rumors, from him dating Kleiza's girlfriend, to being hooked on cocaine. As some folks on Tigerboard concluded, the loss Wednesday was on the players. Snyder got T'ed up and was pushing players around in the huddle trying to get them fired up, but they just didn't respond at all. Saturday needs to be better, otherwise the optimism and confidence created by the winning streak and the kU win will be for naught.
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BA Prospect Handbook is out
Transmogrified Tiger replied to rsmoler's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
In my mind that question is a no brainer. No. Of course he probably gained value due to increased production. He only had very minimal value in the first place, so I don't think it matters all that much I think he absolutely lost value, since outfielders that put up those numbers are much much more common than those who do so at SS. Of course, if the argument is that he wouldn't have improved to those numbers at SS, I can see it being a net zero(not to imply that he shouldn't have changed positions). -
That sounds really interesting. So does Weaver on Strategy, and I've heard good and bad stuff on The Book on the Book. May have to snag that when I order the Prospect Handbook.
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I must say that I wouldn't have guessed Mizzou being that tough.
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Which Forum do you Visit First?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Transactions, unless there's a specific thread or topic I want to check out. -
If Randle-El is the type of player you're looking for, just draft Brad Smith. No thanks. The window will be closing on the Bears within two or three years, and Smith is raw. I'd prefer a vet WR; we have other projects (Bradley, Berrian, etc.). And you wouldn't be biased, would you? Nah, if I were biased I'd be telling people to draft him instead of Vince Young. :D Seriously though, they are similar talents. Both were running college QB's. Randle-El is probably a touch faster(although Smith isn't slow by any means), and Smith is more elusive with the ball in his hands. Smith's ability to catch the ball is a bit of an unknown, but that's why you work him out as a receiver to see how well he does. If he's got the hands, he has the other tools(size, speed, agility, elusiveness), that you'd value with Randle-El.
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Unreal.
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On one hand, I feel for him but on the other hand, he only needed to maintain a 1.85. Yikes, he must've been really down.
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Tucker's effectiveFG% is 45%, 51st of 60 qualified Big 10 players. Only Krabbenhoft is worse on UW. He's 57th of 60 in PPWS, worst on his team. Thanks for this site, by the way. It's pretty flawless. I can't tell if that's sarcasm or not. Either way, I laughed when I saw that Wisconsin was up 20+ from the getgo on the jumbotron. So much for the poor shooting night. No sarcasm. It's great! I can't beleive how stupid you'd have to be to be declared academically ineligible. I think I read something that Stiesma's original leave was due to depression, and that depression also affected him academically to the point where he wasn't eligible.
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His GB/FB worries me a good deal. The Cardinals will return him, but I have to wonder if his confidence will take a hit. The guy I'm looking at? RHP Justin Berg He's a touch on the older side (21) for Peoria last season, but his sinker is excellent and should be a fast mover through the system. Yeah, he doesn't get a ton of ground balls, but he still didn't give up many homeruns despite that.
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Tucker's effectiveFG% is 45%, 51st of 60 qualified Big 10 players. Only Krabbenhoft is worse on UW. He's 57th of 60 in PPWS, worst on his team. Thanks for this site, by the way. It's pretty flawless. I can't tell if that's sarcasm or not. Either way, I laughed when I saw that Wisconsin was up 20+ from the getgo on the jumbotron. So much for the poor shooting night.
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Seriously, stop trying to fit some group of posters with some preconceived notion you have. No one is running away with one metric here. You're crying out for balance when it is already there. I don't agree TT. Maybe the moneyballers need to expand their views a little. It's not just one person who feels moneyballers are running away with only one metric. I think you are smarter than most on this board, but I also read your posts as being "extreme" on the whole moneyball thing. I don't see the balance you talk of. So you see people here only using one metric to evaluate players? It's one thing to consider both sides, and what CubsDad is implying is quite another. It's the umpteenth post where he's said something to the effect of "you have to consider more than OBP", when there is much more being taken into consideration by those he's speaking too. It's frustrating at the least, trolling at the worst.
