Tim

Pirates and SF for the wild card.

Depends on whom you ask. Some will say they don't serve real chinese food in the cities any longer.

We'll crawl ball our way to more runs.

3/4 dong

Houston has a lot more left on the farm than we do. Martes should be a top 25 arm by mid year, Bregman is destroying AA, Reed is starting to recover from a slow start, but unquestionably remains the best 1B prospect in the minors. They'll have their choices of Michael Feliz, Francis Martes and Joe Musgrove for the rotation next year. 2017 and going forward they'll be a vastly improved team. but they'll just trade those guys for a junky reliever or broken OF huh...what can we get for Ramirez?

Damnit. I've gone from "math is hard" to "counting is hard". Getting old sucks.

To balance out the good news from Tennessee today: Player IP H R ER BB SO HR Pierce Johnson 3.0 3 3 3 3 4 0

Who else are you adding above Torres? If it is Candelario, that's quite a jump for less than a month of results.

I'm definitely taking Happ at #1 right now.

Just looking at the top 15 picks on that list...I'd say they went about 5 for 17 in being worth it if you assume Gurley will hold together. That's...not good.

I would, but my lunch hour is over!

Well, you've had Peterson, Forte, Gore and Williams all being some sort of useful to excellent into their 30s. Marshawn Lynch had 8 badass seasons, after being drafted 12th. Jamaal Charles has basically lost two seasons to injury in his 8 seasons in the NFL, but has been badass when healthy. There are very good running backs that last more than 3-4 years. For years running backs were over drafted. You can find useful ones later in the draft. And there has since been what I consider an over correction in how teams draft RB. But the top of the draft is littered with busts from every position, a lot that people simply forget if they weren't QB or RB. And you can and should consider taking the best RB at 11. That's not quite the question I asked, though. Sure, you're going to have some survivors who had success. But let's limit this down to the backs that are taken near the top of the draft as those will be the guys rated most similarly to Elliot. (Summary of all that comes below in case people don't want to read the whole long ass post: I'm not inspired by the RB history at the top of the draft since 2000) 2000: 1 5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee Baltimore Ravens 1 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia Arizona Cardinals 1 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin New York Giants 1 19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama Seattle Seahawks Lewis was a good investment for the Ravens as he put up three good seasons to start his career there, but played zero games in his second season and collapsed after his 387 carries in his fourth season. Thomas Jones stuck around for a long time, but was never really an impact guy. He had a couple nice seasons with his each of the Bears and Jets, but those were his third and fourth teams. Terrible return for the Cards on their draft pick. Dayne sucked. Hard. It took Alexander to his fifth season to really become an impact player, but he was pretty good up to that point, too. 2001: 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian San Diego Chargers 1 23 Deuce McAllister RB Mississippi New Orleans Saints 1 27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin Minnesota Vikings LT was the only guy in this draft rated close to Elliot right now. I'd say that one worked out okay for the Chargers. 2002: 1 16 William Green RB Boston College Cleveland Browns 1 18 T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State Atlanta Falcons An uninspiring year for RB's. Both had lousy careers and were horrible picks. 2003: 1 23 Willis McGahee RB Miami (Fla.) Buffalo Bills 1 27 Larry Johnson RB Penn State Kansas City Chiefs McGahee was talented, but inconsistent. It was a gamble by the bills to take him with his injury history and he never became the difference maker they hoped he would be when he got on the field. Johnson didn't get many carries his first two years, but did well when he got the ball. Then he was a stud for two years. Then was never the same. Not sure how to rate that return for a first round pick. 2004: 1 24 Steven Jackson RB Oregon State St. Louis Rams 1 26 Chris Perry RB Michigan Cincinnati Bengals 1 30 Kevin Jones RB Virginia Tech Detroit Lions Jackson was a huge two way threat from the backfield for years. One of the more successful picks in the whole list. Perry sucked hard. Jones was not worth even a late first rounder 2005: 1 2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn Miami Dolphins 1 4 Cedric Benson RB Texas Chicago Bears 1 5 Cadillac Williams RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ah...THE running back draft. Three top five picks. The returns for the drafting teams ranged from horrible to less than inspiring. 2006: 1 2 Reggie Bush RB USC New Orleans Saints 1 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota New England Patriots 1 27 DeAngelo Williams RB Memphis Carolina Panthers Bush had his moments, but it's hard to justify his impact at #2. Not the worst pick in the list, though, even considering slot. Maroney was a guy. Could have had his equal in the third. Williams had a strong YPC, but didn't get the carries most years. He had one really good year (his third) and one other 1000+ yd year. Not the worst pick for the end of the first, but not comparable to burning a pick at 11. 2007: 1 7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma Minnesota Vikings 1 12 Marshawn Lynch RB California Buffalo Bills I think both teams say they are extremely pleased with these picks. 2008: 1 4 Darren McFadden RB Arkansas Oakland Raiders 1 13 Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon Carolina Panthers 1 22 Felix Jones RB Arkansas Dallas Cowboys 1 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois Pittsburgh Steelers 1 24 Chris Johnson RB East Carolina Tennessee Titans McFadden was a bust at #4. Last year was the first time in his career Stewart started more than 8 games. Felix Jones never even got that one season with more than 8 starts. Mendenhall could have been good had he stayed in one piece. We'll never know. Chris Johnson was certainly worth the pick at 24, but doesn't do much to prove the consistency of running backs. 2009: 1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia Denver Broncos 1 27 Donald Brown RB Connecticut Indianapolis Colts 1 31 Beanie Wells RB Ohio State Arizona Cardinals blech 2010: 1 9 C.J. Spiller RB Clemson Buffalo Bills 1 12 Ryan Mathews RB Fresno State San Diego Chargers Each guy had moments, but nothing you couldn't get from a 3rd-4th round guy 2011: 1 28 Mark Ingram RB Alabama New Orleans Saints 2 38 Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech Arizona Cardinals Uninspiring year for RB's led to uninspiring results. 2012: 1 3 Trent Richardson RB Alabama Cleveland Browns 1 31 Doug Martin RB Boise State Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 32 David Wilson RB Virginia Tech New York Giants Yeah, Cleveland would like a do over on that pick. But they also want a do over on most all of their picks. Martin had a nice rookie year. Then sucked, then sucked, then had a nice fourth year. Meh. I was wondering why I couldn't remember David Wilson. Then I looked him up. Then I understood. 2013: 2 37 Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina Cincinnati Bengals 2 48 Le'Veon Bell RB Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers 2 58 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin Denver Broncos A very meh year for RB's combined with the growing fear of taking RB's in the first. Le'Veon had a nice season for Pitt in his second year. I'm learning from this exercise to just pretend that Wisconsin doesn't have running backs if I'm planning a team's draft. 2014: 2 54 Bishop Sankey RB Washington Tennessee Titans 2 55 Jeremy Hill RB LSU Cincinnati Bengals 2 57 Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State San Francisco 49ers At least these teams didn't blow first rounders? 2015: 1 10 Todd Gurley RB Georgia St. Louis Rams 1 15 Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin San Diego Chargers Gurley looks like the first stud RB in the first round in ages. Gordon? Didn't we learn about Wisconsin running backs already?

I'll be the first to admit that I haven't studied football like I have baseball. I tend to watch football just for the fun of it rather than getting at all the details. If you take out Peterson, how much does RB success correlate from one year to the next? It seems that for every non-AP back in the league, there's a huge amount of year to year variance in their results.

That's a weird reason. That's why you pick a guy in the third round, not the first round. The persuasion should be that he has as good a chance as anyone in the past 9 years to be the next Adrian Peterson. I guess I haven't paid enough attention - is he really rated that highly?

Does it? Fox teams are notorious for doing the multi-back thing. Don't know anything about Loggains. Isn't he generally known as running and TOP focused? Even if he's swapping in & out with Langford to keep both guys fresh, it can still play to the strengths of the staff. Now, if the argument against that is that it's stupid to draft based on the strengths of the staff when coaching turns over more frequently than the players, I get that.

One argument that would persuade me about Elliot is that having a true feature back plays to the strength of this coaching staff.

If it was anyone but the Blues (or Wings), my reaction to the loss would be a shoulder shrug. Because its the Blues it stings a little bit, and I do feel like the short term window is closed even if the long term window is still open. But overall, it's impossible to get too upset. Let's see what the cap does for certain before getting to be too gloomy.

Agree. Too easy to find RB's later on. Elliott isn't really a normal RB though. He could be a top 5 RB which is still worth a first rounder, and a top 10 pick. The one thing I would say is next year is supposed to be a great RB year. You could try and committee it and see if Langford proves his worth as the top dog this year. If not you have a good opportunity to fill the hole next draft. I definitely wouldnt trade up for him thoigh, and taking him at 11 depends on who else is there. I just think there are bigger needs than RB. I'd much rather improve the line, which can make an average rb look like a great one.

I want to vote in Chirinos to see TT's head explode.

I'm starting to think that Chesny Young can simply flat out rake.

Castro! Tomorrow I'll add any ex-cubs in the AL on my ballot.

25 votes cast today on the straight Cubs ballot. The AL isn't worthy of sending any all stars.

I wish I would have said that!

His FIP and xFIP are both negative now. Is that good?

So I'm pretty sure that Rondon's FIP will still be negative.