Fred Hornkohl

Points well taken, all. I'm not about invoking hostility on this board. Again, I apologize. Zips' numbers may indeed not be realistic. In my opinion, it's kind of a crap shoot anyway, but it does give a starting point for hot stove discussions. Trading Jones for Abreu, the increases mentioned for Cedeno & Murton, plus a couple of career years by others would just about do it, no?

Replacing Jones ('06 Zips projection = .319) with Abreu ('05 actual = .405) would raise the team OBP by just under .010...... bringing the team OBP to somewhere around .340 to .341.

To further illustrate, the Phillies led the league last year with a .348 OBP. 2005 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Philadelphia 5542 807 1494 282 35 167 2347 760 639 1083 116 27 0.270 0.348 0.423 0.771 Cincinnati 5565 820 1453 335 15 222 2484 784 611 1303 72 23 0.261 0.339 0.446 0.785 St. Louis 5538 805 1494 287 26 170 2343 757 534 947 83 36 0.270 0.339 0.423 0.762 Florida 5502 717 1499 306 32 128 2253 678 512 918 96 38 0.272 0.339 0.409 0.748 Colorado 5542 740 1477 280 34 150 2275 704 509 1103 65 32 0.267 0.333 0.411 0.744 San Diego 5502 684 1416 269 39 130 2153 655 600 977 99 44 0.257 0.333 0.391 0.724 Atlanta 5486 769 1453 308 37 184 2387 733 534 1084 92 32 0.265 0.333 0.435 0.768 Arizona 5550 696 1419 291 27 191 2337 670 606 1094 67 26 0.256 0.332 0.421 0.753 Milwaukee 5448 726 1413 327 19 175 2303 689 531 1162 79 34 0.259 0.331 0.423 0.754 Los Angeles 5433 685 1374 284 21 149 2147 653 541 1094 58 35 0.253 0.326 0.395 0.721 CUBS 5584 703 1506 323 23 194 2457 674 419 920 65 39 0.270 0.324 0.440 0.764 NY Mets 5505 722 1421 279 32 175 2289 683 486 1075 153 40 0.258 0.322 0.416 0.738 Pittsburgh 5573 680 1445 292 38 139 2230 656 471 1092 73 30 0.259 0.322 0.400 0.722 Houston 5462 693 1400 281 32 161 2228 654 481 1037 115 44 0.256 0.322 0.408 0.730 Washington 5426 639 1367 311 32 117 2093 615 491 1090 45 45 0.252 0.322 0.386 0.708 San Francisco 5462 649 1427 299 26 128 2162 617 431 901 71 35 0.261 0.319 0.396 0.715

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350. No, to get 6 players hitting .300 would push Pierre and Jones into that .350 as well. certainly walker and barrett wouldn't drag them down that much. I find the kool-aid reference quite offensive by the way. why add that - does it somehow contribute to your argument or is it just meant to irk me? I am sorry that you took offense. My intention was not to irk you at all, but rather to contribute to my argument by illustrating that your view is that of an overly optimistic fan. One of the few times you'll see that reference used approriately. I made the following analogy a few weeks back in another thread. Starting with Zips' projections, and adjusting Patterson's & Perez's counting stats (but keeping their rate stats constant) downward to reflect the fact that they're not going to be starters on this team, and adding in the pitching staff's actual numbers from '05. Now, I realize that Patterson has since been traded away and it shouldn't be that hard to improve on his .298 OBP. Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Pierre* cf .293 .346 .364 162 676 92 198 22 10 2 61 50 41 52 22 Walker* 2b .277 .336 .435 125 451 60 125 26 3 13 57 40 49 1 2 Lee 1b .309 .398 .582 159 593 104 183 44 2 38 114 84 121 14 5 Ramirez 3b .302 .359 .541 142 549 83 166 33 1 32 104 45 75 1 2 Jones* rf .261 .319 .433 145 541 71 141 26 2 21 76 42 121 11 7 Barrett c .276 .342 .468 125 410 47 113 29 4 14 58 37 60 0 3 Murton lf .289 .350 .430 137 470 64 136 16 4 14 56 42 77 10 5 Cedeno ss .287 .332 .412 113 345 46 99 15 2 8 40 20 63 13 4 pitchers p .202 .219 .277 162 336 25 68 12 2 3 18 6 97 1 2 Blanco c .204 .258 .351 81 225 22 46 12 0 7 27 15 39 0 2 Hairston 2b .273 .350 .378 98 333 44 91 22 2 3 31 31 39 9 9 Patterson* cf .252 .298 .418 57 220 29 55 9 2 8 27 14 57 9 3 Perez# ss .259 .288 .353 55 188 18 49 10 0 2 18 7 17 2 1 Mabry rf .240 .295 .407 112 246 26 59 15 1 8 32 20 63 0 0 Totals .274 .330 .431 162 5583 731 1529 291 35 173 719 463 919 123 67 2005 CUBS .270 .324 .440 162 5584 703 1506 323 23 194 674 419 920 65 39 Raising the estimates on Cedeno (.332 to .358) and Murton (.350 to .378) will only add about .006 to the estimated team OBP. Finding another .010 to .012 in OBP to bring this roster up to where they're pushing .350 is, in my opinion, overly optimistic.

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350.

We've had a major overhaul in player personnel without new ownership, no?

The only fault I can see with Pat and Ron as a team is when they have a guest in the booth. They completely forget about the game.

You can't feel that way because Mr. Cub has too much energy to let you feel old! The heck with just one birthday...let's have two! Well said, 'Cuse !! I just wish I still had Ernie's energy !

I think this should illustrate your point.... Williamson IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 08/22 - 10/02 8.3 7 1 1 2 13 1 127 2.16 14.04 1.08 1.08 1.08 04/04 - 08/21 6.0 8 8 8 4 10 2 121 6.00 15.00 3.00 2.00 12.00 04/04 - 10/02 14.3 15 9 9 6 23 3 248 3.77 14.44 1.88 1.47 5.65

I guess I have until May to get the Wade Miller BandWGN back up and running. I've got a truck I'm not using right now. Let me know if you need a little help !

Yeah, he stopped peeking back at the catcher right around the same time that he started to suck again. Wasn't it the Mets that drilled him in the back after they caught him doing that? Yes, it was the Mets.... and a week later Neifi went on another one of his streaks....... Perez AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 05/17 - 06/05 83 11 33 5 0 3 47 12 1 5 0.398 0.407 0.566 0.973 .... putting up even better numbers in more ABs than what he did in April.

You do realize that this is the same Ronnie Cedeno who drew exactly 5 walks in 87 plate appearances last year, and Zips doesn't project him to improve on that ratio at all this year ??

You Louisana guys sure do stick together, don't you ? :wink: Louisiana or not, there's not one scintila of evidence to back up such a ludicrous statement. [sigh] There you go again. Letting the facts get in the way of a good argument. :wink:

That's just wrong. Our lack of runs scored was because we had a lack of men on base when the middle of the order guys came up. 04/04 - 10/02 AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS batting 1st 690 83 168 33 2 13 244 55 44 96 0.243 0.297 0.354 0.650 batting 2nd 679 90 187 31 5 18 282 63 35 80 0.275 0.315 0.415 0.730 Totals 1369 173 355 64 7 31 526 118 79 176 0.259 0.306 0.384 0.690

You Louisana guys sure do stick together, don't you ? :wink:

I really like the idea of Murton hitting second. Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Murton lf .289 .350 .430 137 470 64 136 16 4 14 56 42 77 10 5 Walker* 2b .277 .336 .435 125 451 60 125 26 3 13 57 40 49 1 2 Cedeno ss .287 .332 .412 113 345 46 99 15 2 8 40 20 63 13 4 Hairston 2b .273 .350 .378 98 333 44 91 22 2 3 31 31 39 9 9

I'm not worried about Cedeno's OBP either, although, by the same token, I am not laboring under some Kool-Aid induced halluciantions either. Zips...... Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Cedeno ss .287 .332 .412 113 345 46 99 15 2 8 40 20 63 13 4 Hey Fred, do you have Furcal's Zips by chance? If Cedeno puts up those numbers, I'd be thrilled. No, I never copied the Braves numbers because I didn't realize that the links would "go away" after a couple of weeks.

I'm not worried about Cedeno's OBP either, although, by the same token, I am not laboring under some Kool-Aid induced halluciantions either. Zips...... Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Cedeno ss .287 .332 .412 113 345 46 99 15 2 8 40 20 63 13 4

ERA's with Neifi hitting leadoff.... Starters Relief Overall 4.329 5.546 4.671 ERA's with Neifi fitting second..... Starters Relief Overall 4.024 2.853 3.672 I can't break out K/9 or H/9 between the starters and reliveres, so make what you can out of this.

Yes, and that improvement can pretty much all be credited to the bullpen.

Here are the 25 games that Neifi led off with Derrek Lee hitting 3rd...... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 45 Thu 05/26 Colorado 2- 5 Zambrano 47 Sat 05/28 Colorado 5- 1 Rusch 50 Tue 05/31 @ Los Angeles N 2- 1 Zambrano 51 Wed 06/01 @ Los Angeles N 9- 5 Koronka 52 Thu 06/02 @ San Diego N 5- 0 Rusch 53 Fri 06/03 @ San Diego N 2- 6 Mitre 55 Sun 06/05 @ San Diego 4- 0 Zambrano 57 Tue 06/07 Toronto N 4- 6 Rusch 58 Wed 06/08 Toronto 2- 0 Mitre 59 Fri 06/10 Boston 14- 6 Maddux 60 Sat 06/11 Boston 7- 6 Zambrano 61 Sun 06/12 Boston N 1- 8 Rusch 62 Mon 06/13 Florida N 1- 9 Koronka 63 Tue 06/14 Florida N 14- 0 Mitre 64 Wed 06/15 Florida 5-15 Maddux 65 Fri 06/17 @ NY Yanks N 6- 9 Zambrano 66 Sat 06/18 @ NY Yanks 1- 8 Rusch 67 Sun 06/19 @ NY Yanks 3- 6 Mitre 68 Mon 06/20 @ Milwaukee N 5- 4 Maddux 82 Tue 07/05 @ Atlanta N 1- 5 Maddux 150 Sun 09/18 St. Louis 7- 4 Zambrano 151 Tue 09/20 @ Milwaukee N 3- 5 Williams 152 Wed 09/21 @ Milwaukee N 6- 7 Prior 153 Thu 09/22 @ Milwaukee 3- 0 Maddux 154 Fri 09/23 Houston 5- 4 Rusch During that collection of games, the CUBS went 13-12, scoring 4.68 runs per game. The teams' offensive & defensive line for this collection of games ...... AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS 879 117 258 61 4 26 405 109 50 140 0.294 0.333 0.461 0.793 IP H R ER BB K HR BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA CUBS 219.7 229 120 114 87 174 26 3.56 7.13 1.07 1.44 4.67 Game listing for Neifi hitting second and Lee hitting 3rd .... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 15 Wed 04/20 @ St. Louis N 3- 1 Zambrano 18 Sun 04/24 Pittsburgh 5- 2 Wood 19 Mon 04/25 Cincinnati N 10- 6 Prior 29 Sat 05/07 Philadelphia 1- 4 Rusch 30 Sun 05/08 Philadelphia 2- 1 Zambrano 31 Mon 05/09 New York N 4- 7 Leicester 33 Wed 05/11 New York 4- 3 Prior 34 Fri 05/13 @ Washington N 6- 3 Rusch 35 Sat 05/14 @ Washington N 3- 4 Zambrano 36 Sun 05/15 @ Washington 4- 5 Maddux 37 Tue 05/17 @ Pittsburgh N 4- 3 Prior 38 Wed 05/18 @ Pittsburgh 3- 2 Rusch 40 Sat 05/21 Chicago (AL) 3- 5 Zambrano 41 Sun 05/22 Chicago (AL) 4- 3 Prior 42 Mon 05/23 Houston N 4- 1 Rusch 43 Tue 05/24 Houston N 4- 2 Mitre 44 Wed 05/25 Houston N 1- 5 Maddux 46 Fri 05/27 Colorado 10- 3 Prior 48 Sun 05/29 Colorado 11- 6 Mitre 49 Mon 05/30 @ Los Angeles N 5- 3 Maddux 54 Sat 06/04 @ San Diego N 11- 5 Maddux 56 Mon 06/06 Toronto N 1- 4 Koronka 70 Wed 06/22 @ Milwaukee N 4- 9 Zambrano 71 Thu 06/23 @ Milwaukee 7- 8 Rusch 72 Fri 06/24 @ Chicago (AL) 2-12 Mitre 73 Sat 06/25 @ Chicago (AL) 6- 2 Maddux 74 Sun 06/26 @ Chicago (AL) 2- 0 Prior 75 Tue 06/28 Milwaukee N 2- 0 Zambrano 76 Wed 06/29 Milwaukee 3- 2 Wood 78 Fri 07/01 Washington 3- 4 Prior 79 Sat 07/02 Washington 2- 4 Williams 103 Fri 07/29 Arizona 4- 3 Prior 111 Sun 08/07 @ New York 1- 6 Zambrano 115 Thu 08/11 St. Louis 11- 4 Maddux 120 Tue 08/16 @ Houston N 4- 1 Maddux 124 Sun 08/21 @ Colorado 7- 9 Maddux 133 Wed 08/31 Los Angeles 0- 7 Rusch 136 Sun 09/04 @ Pittsburgh 2- 0 Williams 138 Tue 09/06 @ St. Louis N 5- 2 Rusch 141 Fri 09/09 @ San Francisco N 1- 2 Williams 143 Sun 09/11 @ San Francisco 3- 2 Rusch 144 Mon 09/12 Cincinnati N 2- 5 Maddux 148 Fri 09/16 St. Louis 5- 3 Rusch 149 Sat 09/17 St. Louis 1- 5 Maddux 155 Sat 09/24 Houston 3- 8 Zambrano 156 Sun 09/25 Houston 3- 2 Williams 157 Tue 09/27 Pittsburgh N 3- 5 Maddux 158 Wed 09/28 Pittsburgh 2- 3 Prior 159 Thu 09/29 @ Houston N 3- 2 Rusch 160 Fri 09/30 @ Houston N 4- 3 Zambrano 161 Sat 10/01 @ Houston 1- 3 Williams During this collection of games, the CUBS went 29-22, scoring 3.90 runs per game. The team's offensive & defensive lines for this collection of games ....... AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS 1682 199 423 87 7 62 710 190 134 326 0.251 0.311 0.422 0.733 IP H R ER BB K HR BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA CUBS 451.0 387 194 184 147 383 57 2.93 7.64 1.14 1.18 3.67 I just can't help but point out..... The CUBS are 42-34 when Neifi hits in the top of the order..... 37-49 when he doesn't. Sorry 'bout that :wink:

Derek first hit in the 3rd spot on 20 April (game #15) which was, in fact, the game in which Nomar was injured. From that point through 05 May (game #27) Baker alternated between Lee, Ramirez, and Patterson in the 3rd spot. From game #28 on, Lee hit in the 3rd spot in all but 4 games. He swapped places with Ramirez on 10 May (game #32) v. NY Mets. Then he missed 3 games altogether, 07-08 July (games #83-85) in Atlanta & Florida.

Michigan is making a lot of fouls early. Could come back to bite 'em in the butt.

..... and Michigan State goes on an 8-0 run in the last 3:36 to get the win, 69-60.

Penn State is really giving the Spartans a run for their money in East Lansing. 48-47 Penn State with 9 minutes left.