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Three problems with this stance. 1) Wilson is worth close to or as much as every starter you listed 2) My guess is at least two of those names never come available (Lincecum and Hamels in particular) 3) We can get Danks and Wilson both at the same time CJ Wilson: 5.3 avg WAR past two seasons; 31 years old; 708 total MLB innings Matt Cain: 4.5 avg WAR past two seasons; 28 years old; 1,317 total MLB innings + 2012 season Lincecum: 4.7 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,028 total MLB innings + 2012 season Cole Hamels: 4.3 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,161 total MLB innings + 2012 season Zack Greinke: 4.5 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,279 total MLB innings + 2012 season Anibal Sanchez: 4.1 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 673 total MLB innings + 2012 season That's the 2012 offseason free agent starting pitching class best of the best (age is what they'll be during 2013 season). Wilson is comparable to every one of them. Given the extreme unknown as to whether any of them will be available (Greinke's most likely if not traded), I don't see it being a good decision to pass on Wilson for the purposes of giving the money to one of these guys next year, since Wilson's just as good or better.

I still think you're underrating teams' ability to be patient with some of these guys (Chen in particular) and the Cards' need to move Lohse/Westbrook rather quickly. You've also got all the Japanese arms I haven't mentioned yet - Chen, Wada, Iwakuma - as better options than Lohse as well. It's not that I don't think the Cards could move Lohse, I think they could eventually, I just don't see them being able to do it with ease or quickly as you suggested. If they're that desperate to win now, then yeah I could see them following up the Werth mistake with another unnecessary big contract. I don't think it's the right choice, but desperation could lead them do it anyway.

Yeah, this could be a meaningless conversation if the Cards bump payroll. On Lohse, I just really don't think much of him. I'd take him over Chen if everything else is neutral, but as soon as the Cardinals start to ask for any prospects of significance, I lose interest in Lohse. The benefit other teams will have over the Cardinals is they can wait out some of the guys like Chen who may be looking to cash in on his big year. If the Cardinals want to retain Pujols and keep any value Lohse may have in trade, they need to move him relatively quickly, I'd think. Also, while I agree Duchscherer is a gamble to stay healthy, Lohse is just as big a gamble to not be terrible. In Duchscherer's one full year starting (2008), he had a better ERA than Lohse has ever had, better FIP than Lohse has had before last year and a better xFIP than all but two of Lohse's seasons. If not for the injury concerns, I'd take Duchscherer in a heartbeat over Lohse. Clearly we're discussing a bunch of mediocre pitchers here for the most part, so it's certainly possible a team or two will value the Cardinals' junk over FA junk, but I'm just not as sure as you are that it'll be easy to move Lohse in a trade.

It was further down the road that I was referencing the big payroll boost for. Look at it this way: They'll have roughly $40 million tied up in two players (Werth and Wilson) and there's a good chance Werth will be fairly bad at 35 years old, certainly very overpaid. Zimmermann is Arb 3 eligible at that point and I'm not sure what Strasburg's contract situation is like, though Cot's has his current deal expiring after next year. Ryan Zimmerman will be a free agent that offseason as well and Bryce Harper may have earned a raise from his $2 million contract at that point. Now if they can continue to raise payroll past $100 million over the next few years, it may not be that big a deal. But if they're hovering around $100 million and have close to half of that tied up in a likely unproductive Werth and a likely beginning to decline (probably gracefully) Wilson, they're going to struggle to keep all of the young guys they'll want and fill in around them.

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington. Even if you take all of those guys out, you still have these guys I see as being better than Lohse in a neutral setting (i.e. neither cost prospects): Jackson Francis Maholm Bedard (forgot him initially) When you factor in that you have to give up prospects for Lohse and you don't for a FA, the list expands a bit: Chen Duchsherer Marquis Maybe some teams will overrate Lohse, but I just don't see him being particularly appealing, especially early in the offseason when the Cards would need to dump his contract.

To explain myself better, I don't really question their need for a veteran starter, just their need for a splashy type signing. I admittedly don't know much about their payroll "cap" but unless they're willing to climb close to the upper tier of the Cubs and Phillies, locking into another long term contract with Wilson seems short sighted. If I were them I'd probably push hard for whichever of the mid-tier guys (Buerhle, Oswalt, Jackson) that I liked the most and thought was a realistic option to sign. A top of the order of Strasburg/Zimmermann/Oswalt is pretty solid and gives you payroll flexibility going forward. If you're in contention at the deadline, you have the prospects to target a SP in trade if you're concerned about Strasburg/Zimmermann or want more depth behind the trio. Maybe I'm misreading their situation, but that seems like the smarter path to take for the situation the Nats are in rather than making a splashy move that may be unnecessary.

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as that bad a pitching market? There's not a lot in the way of elite talent, with really only Wilson and maybe Darvish (depending on your view of him) as top end guys. But after those two you have Oswalt, Buerhle, and Kuroda as older but still quite productive starters that'll likely come without great cost or commitment. Then you have the decent arms that could put together solid seasons in Maholm, Chen, Jackson, Marquis, and Vazquez. And then finally the cheap, lottery ticket type guys who could rebound in Francis, Wang, Webb, Harden, and Duchsherer. It's not a great SP market by any means, but I don't think it's so bad that a guy like Kyle Lohse, who you have to give up prospects for, will be coveted. He and Chen are actually quite similar (Chen's a year older, but both had good years last year after a bunch of mediocrity prior) and you can have Chen without giving up prospects. I don't know that trading Lohse and his contract is that much of an easy thing for St. Louis.

At some point with the Nats I start to wonder if they're being aggressive just to be aggressive. As good as their system is, it seems like it'd be in their best interest to have a little patience and develop some of these kids. I think they spent just to spend last year in signing Werth and going after an elite starter like Wilson or Darvish seems to be a bit unnecessary with Strasburg and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation.

You can build the team with the future in mind without forfeiting next season. That's the beauty of a Pujols/Prince or Wilson signing is those guys will be on the team and likely highly productive for the next 4-5 years and we should be easily contending by then. What we shouldn't be doing is overpaying on short term deals and marginal upgrades and giving up too much in trades.

Using this reasoning, wouldn't pursuing Buerhle/Oswalt be the more preferential route for Washington? Strasburg and Zimmermann would be their top of the rotation guys and then either Oswalt or Buerhle provides some stability in the middle of the rotation. I don't know, maybe I'm subconsciously just making stuff up to make Wilson more realistic for the Cubs, but it seems if they want a splash Darvish makes more sense and if they want a proven track record then Buerhle/Oswalt makes more sense. Not having a presence in Asia would make them less likely to pursue Darvish, though.

Both AL East monsters may also be wary of new major contracts, though. Obviously they could afford Wilson if they want him badly enough, but they're not in need of star power so much as quality pitching. Oswalt or Buerhle could provide that for them without them committing 5 years to yet another big name guy. The Yankees also have CC to restructure his contract and the Red Sox may be a tad more conservative after the Crawford, Lackey, and Daisuke contracts. I think there's a realistic chance the Yankees and Red Sox don't get that involved in the Wilson bidding, or that they bow out more quickly than they may generally.

You're probably right on this. That's kind of why I threw him in at the end of the pots - the likelihood is somebody gives him a deal of some substance or he just wants to stay in LA. However, Kuroda's age makes him more likely than most pitchers of his ability to be ignored through the FA process. Wang would have to come really cheap, but I'd prefer a guy like Jeff Francis. Wang is older than Francis (32 vs 30) and Francis has had a little more consistent success than Wang more recently. Neither have had their peak for about 5 years, though. Yeah, looking at Chen's arsenal I was thinking he'd at least start as a back of the rotation starter or long reliever, but if he could refine the slider and develop the forkball, he could move into the middle of the rotation. At 26, he has age on his side and he may be overlooked with Darvish being the import that grabs headlines. This is more a hunch on my part that the Theo/Hoyer system might be able to take a talented, young lefty without a lot of mileage and help him take that next step. Danks would be more of a sure thing, but would also cost some of our better prospects. Chen wouldn't, and that's the reason for a lot of my interest in him. The thing with most of the teams that need pitching, most could do fine with mid-rotation type guys. If a team is looking to make a splashy signing (like the Nats, for instance), Darvish would seem to fit the bill a bit better than Wilson. Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees may be wary of entering into another major contract and choose to fill their pitching need with 2nd tier guys like Buerhle and Oswalt. I could be wrong, but it may come down to primarily Cubs vs Rangers for Wilson. Headley's kind of a pipedream, but it's possible Byrnes values Headley differently than Hoyer. Hoyer taking over the Cubs may actually increase the possibility of Headley coming to the Cubs if he values Headley more than Byrnes does. Highly unlikely move, but one I'd like to see happen if possible.

I'm pretty well on board with TT on the types of moves the Cubs should make. Pujols/Prince is a near must and we really need an elite arm as well. CJ Wilson would be a perfect fit for this team, I think, as he only has around 700 MLB innings on his arm, so he should be more durable than your typical 31 year old starter. I also think his pricetag could well stay in the $80-90 mil range instead of $100+ as CC, Darvish, Oswalt, and Buerhle could keep the interest a bit limited on Wilson. We need a secondary arm to go along with Wilson and I'm highly intrigued by Japanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He's just 26 years old and unlike Danks (who I like quite a bit) he would cost only money and not prospects. In his two years primarily starting, he's posted an ERA of 1.54 and WHIP of 0.93 in 2009 and 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2010. Clearly this would depend largely on what Theo/Hoyer and their scouts think of him, but this could be a shrewd move on the part of the new Cubs management. If we could come out of the offseason with primary moves of Pujols/Wilson/Chen, I'd be pretty thrilled. If this doesn't give us the funds to keep Aramis, I'd look at Chase Headley in trade or just platoon Baker (.900+ career OPS v lefties) and someone (LeMahieu, Flaherty, Kouzmanoff, Wilson Betemit are all cheap options we could look at). I wouldn't touch the bullpen as we have plenty of young relievers we can try out in the pen. Bring back Shark if the funds work out, same with Wood. Deal Marmol if there's a good trade to be had and if you do, replace him with Carpenter (Wood or Marshall become the closer). I would look at bargain SP, though: Jeff Francis might be interesting on a one year deal or even Hiroki Kuroda if his age (37) makes him fall through the cracks and come really cheap.

That makes sense, my concern is likelihood. He's been all over the board with so many stats that it's hard to pin down what "most likely" is. There's no way I'd have any interest if we keep Barney, but if he's dealt then I might have interest in Johnson. I'd rather see a 1 year deal than two, however.

I'm having trouble seeing that. Maybe he can reach that as the upside, but he's only hit 3.5+ WAR twice in his career. I don't see him being a good bet to do that as he gets past 30. I'm not opposed to trading Barney if we can get good value for him, I was responding to Cub Fan Dan saying he would sign Johnson with, presumably, Barney still on the team.

5.9, which was considerably higher than any other season in his career. He's had WARs of 1.7, 3.6, 2.7, 5.9, and 2.2. One of those is a clear outlier from the rest.

If Theo/Hoyer choose not to pursue Prince/Pujols, Butler could be an intriguing option. His WAR is hurt by pretty poor defense, but he's only 26 and has posted wOBAs of .369, .372, and .351 the past three seasons. I probably wouldn't want to pay what the Royals would demand, though.

This has been brought up a few times on here. Johnson posted a 2.2 WAR last year, Barney posted a 2.2 WAR. Johnson will be 30 next year, Barney 26. Johnson will probably command $5-8+ million, Barney will be super cheap.

Exactly. The Royals, Twins, Indians, Pirates, Rays, etc., need to be cost efficient. The Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Angels, etc., don't. That doesn't mean you spend wildly and wastefully, but if you have a guy who can be incredibly productive for 5+ years, you can live with having to figure out what to do with him being overpaid in the latter years.

With a guy like Pujols and a team like the Cubs, I think those are the exact questions you must answer before deciding whether you want him or not. If you have a payroll of $210 million (which the Cubs would project to if they raise payroll an average of $10 each season until Pujols is 38, which should probably be on the lower end), you can afford to have roughly 15-17% of your payroll tied up in an underproducing player, I think. Especially if you have management, as the Cubs do, very capable of producing highly productive young players. In our situation, Pujols would provide the production we need over the next few years while Epstein/Hoyer/McLeod build up the farm system and then the young, cheap talent coming from the farm makes up for Pujols being a drag on the payroll later in his career. Most teams can't afford to do that, but the Cubs can and this is why I support signing Pujols even knowing he'll decline (though not sure to what extent) later in his career.

Darvish would probably be a bigger splash than Wilson, if that's what the Nats ended up going for. It'll also be interesting to see how aggressive the Yankees and Red Sox are for the top tier guys. After the high-profile busts the Red Sox have had (Lackey/Crawford) and with the Yankees probably having to significantly up CC's pay, they may tend to target the 2nd tier type guys like Oswalt and Buerhle. They may not, but assuming Wilson will get a $100 million deal is jumping the gun and ignoring the potential status of the market, I think.

What is your standard for acceptable decline and does it fluctuate depending on how underpaid a player is early in his career or depending on the team's payroll?

I might trade Simpson for Melky. Maybe. He just doesn't have much value and isn't a very good bet at all to improve upon what looks to be a lucky year last year.

Ok, you've made the statement that you think Pujols' decline is likely to mirror Soriano's in terms of value - meaning you think Pujols will become a similar albatross to Soriano at around the same time that Soriano has become one (with 4 years left on his deal). Now, what you haven't said is why you think that. There are a number of guys who have similarities to Pujols (which Soriano does not) who have been highly successful into their late 30s and early 40s. Why are you so confident that Pujols will tail off similarly to what Soriano has instead of being more like Willie Mays or Frank Robinson and still having solid value into his late 30s/early 40s?

That's why I'd focus on the stars out of the gates - Prince, Pujols, Wilson, and Aramis. If those fall through, then maybe you change your strategy and grab a couple short term guys, but they shouldn't be the focus from the start of free agency. For instance, we shouldn't pursue Buerhle instead of Wilson. If we can get, say, Pujols then we won't have a ton of money to spend elsewhere anyway. We can fit Wilson in the budget, but if we miss on him then I'd rather use that $16 million to get* Francis ($5 mil) and one of the lesser Japanese guys ($10 mil) than to get Buerhle ($12-15 mil) alone. *purely speculative dollars on my part, use them as a guide rather than exact figures