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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    I wonder if Selig will just make a decree stating what the Red Sox will get or if he'll hear both sides' argument and then take a day or two to think and then make a decision? How he goes about the process could determine how long it is before we hear.
  2. dew1679666265
    That's a good point I hadn't thought of. Taking out all of those strikeouts drops him to a 3.8 K:BB, much more in line with the rest of his career and much closer to Wilson's 2.78 ratio this year. That said, taking out all of the strikeouts probably isn't accurate, but had he faced a hitter in the 9 spot rather than a pitcher (as Wilson did), his Ks would have gone down and his BBs up. The exact ratio I'm not sure about, but it does seem likely that the K:BB comparison between the two is inflated somewhat when only looking at this year. For reference, Greinke went from 21:4 K:BB vs #9 hitters last year to 29:0 this year against pitchers. Wilson was at 26:4 against #9 hitters this season. Am I wildly overestimating this?
  3. dew1679666265
    This is the only thing I disagree with. When the Cubs hired Andy MacPhail from the Twins, we gave an A-ball prospect. That would be the exact precedent for this situation.
  4. dew1679666265
    Salary neutral? That sounds crazy. Not neutral, as a cheaper alternative. And significantly worse most likely. Unless he can repeat his 2010 performance then you're getting at best a middle of the rotation arm who's going to be 33 next year. Not a lot of mileage, but I'm not seeing much upside.
  5. dew1679666265
    Me too. So, I take it that people are seeing it in non-firefox browsers and not seeing it in FF? I use FireFox.
  6. dew1679666265
    Me too.
  7. dew1679666265
    There's a "site front page" link just to the right of the Northside Baseball banner. It directs you to the front page.
  8. dew1679666265
    Welcome to the board! Building from within is only half of what Theo said his plan is. He talked about "parallel fronts," referring to both building up from within through the farm system and international signings as well as finding talent on the free agent market. A team with the money the Cubs have don't need to and shouldn't focus all of their resources on just building from within or just bringing in free agents. Basically, signing Pujols won't force the Cubs to take money from the amateur side. If you think Pujols won't be worth his next contract, that's understandable and up for debate, but signing him won't go against Theo's stated plan for building up the system.
  9. dew1679666265
    Really? He had a really nice year in 2010 (3.72/3.55/3.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 4.6 WAR) but followed that up with a very mediocre 2011 (4.40/4.54/4.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 2.3 WAR). The K/BB is lower than Wilson's (career is, this season he was higher). Granted he does have fewer ML innings pitched than Wilson by around 80 and he'd be cheaper, but he's a year older (will be 33 next year) and appears to be the lesser pitcher.
  10. dew1679666265
    That is a good point. I still think they should use the MacPhail hiring as precedent and try to closely match that, but if it goes to Bud I think it'll end up being a bit more than that.
  11. dew1679666265
    You think he's ready? He's pretty close. Great command, anti-hr and lots of ground balls. The only real knock on his statistical profile is a marginal strikeout rate. Combine that with merely adequate MLB stuff and you've got a decent, cheap 5th starter. I'd take him over Coleman today and almost certainly would by midseason. Randy Wells type upside maybe?
  12. dew1679666265
    Hadn't looked at K/BB, Greinke is definitely a lot better there. The career numbers are a decent amount closer (3.48 to 2.16), however, and Wilson has improved both his K/9 and BB/9 from year one to year two. Greinke will remain better than Wilson in that area, I'm sure, but it'll be interesting to see if Wilson continues to improve on those numbers into next year. I also wonder what Greinke did differently this year, as he had his best K/9 ratio of his career, by nearly a full strikeout over 2009.
  13. dew1679666265
    Out of curiosity, why do you like Greinke a lot more? Greinke is 3 years younger, but has thrown around 500 more MLB innings than Wilson, so he's got more mileage. Greinke did have that exceptional 2009 season (9.3 WAR, 2.16/2.33/3.09 ERA/FIP/xFIP), but that's looking like a clear outlier at this point as he's been at 5.1, 4.9, 3.9, and lower the rest of his career. Since becoming a starter, Wilson has posted K/9 rates of 7.5 and 8.3 and BB rates of 4.10 and 2.98. Greinke will K a few more (he's at 8.83 since 2008 if my math is right) and he walks a few less than Wilson did this year (2.26 since 2008, again if my math is right). Wilson's averages are around 1 per 9 innings worse than Greinke's, but Wilson has shown clear improvement from year one to year two, so it's not unrealistic to think the 2011 numbers are closer to what he'll do over the next few years as well. I could understand preferring Greinke to Wilson, but by a lot? And I expect Greinke to get more too, I was just throwing numbers out there since they weren't the crux (or particularly important to) my post.
  14. dew1679666265
    You think he's ready?
  15. dew1679666265
    This is for TT: They also noted that Lastings Milledge is expected to sign with a Japanese team perhaps as early as next week.
  16. dew1679666265
    MLBTR:
  17. dew1679666265
    I just can't get behind the Maholm idea. He'll cost more than he should because of last year, and the likelihood is that he won't repeat last season. He may, but there's little I've seen pointing to it being a likelihood.
  18. dew1679666265
    This looks promising:
  19. dew1679666265
    Since we know that money's coming off the books next year either way, why is it better to wait and commit money next year instead of the same money this year? The Demp, Z, Pena, etc., money comes off the books at the same time, in the same way next year whether we sign Wilson to a 5/90 deal this offseason or Greinke to a 5/90 deal next offseason.
  20. dew1679666265
    The only positive to the idea is that Wells is younger and may be slightly less into his decline than Soriano. The numbers don't support that, though, and it's certainly not worth paying $3 million extra per year for the chance that he rebounds.
  21. dew1679666265
    There may be no point to this idea, but I thought I'd toss it out there. What are the thoughts on a super cheap (i.e. minor league deal) to Nate McLouth? I realize he's been awful the past couple of years, but he had three straight years (07-09) of really good offensive seasons - .364, .369, .350 wOBAs - and is still in his prime at 30 years old the entire 2012 regular season (turns 31 in October 2012). His BB% has improved the past three seasons (11.5 for two years and 13.7 in 2011) and he's held a strong IsoD his entire career (.088 career; .096, .108, .116 the past three seasons). Is he somebody who could be "fixed" by Jaramillo? He seems to have a good approach looking at his peripherals, but his production has been pretty abysmal for two years now. I almost wonder if he's become too passive at the plate or something - maybe looking for the walk a bit too much?
  22. dew1679666265
    There aren't many contracts in the majors worse than Soriano's, but Wells' is one. Wells gets $21 million each of the next three seasons while Soriano gets $18 each of the next 3 seasons. Soriano has been worth 4.4 WAR total the past 3 seasons, Wells has been worth 4.3 WAR. Soriano has been a plus defender according to UZR 3 of the past 4 seasons (largely based on his arm and range, I'd guess), Wells has been a major negative defender 3 of the past 4 seasons. Soriano's past 3 wOBAs: .314, .353, .325. Wells' past 3 wOBAs: .314, .362, .285. Soriano is older by two years, but is still probably the (slightly) better player going forward and has the better contract.
  23. dew1679666265
    I agree, but like I said a number of people believed the Red Sox would jump into the Wilson running. If Speier is pretty connected as you say, it would appear they're out (though clearly not a certainty) and the Yankees may be focused on CC for a while and may bow out from the elite guys if they have to give CC a hefty raise.
  24. dew1679666265
    Absolutely yes. Marmol will be 30 next year and appears to be declining a bit. Danks will be 27 next year and is just about to hit his prime. No way the Sox do that, though.
  25. dew1679666265
    There's been a lot of talk in this thread and others where people were assuming the Yankees and Red Sox both would be in the CJ Wilson running and that would bump his pricetag up into the area of $100+ million. That's why I found the rumor noteworthy. Also, on a somewhat related note, the Yankees' apparent offer to Sabathia is reportedly 5 years/$120 million - which would be a $24 million AAV. Basically all that is doing is adding $1 million per year in each year and extending what's left on the current contract by one year. If CC really is demanding 6/150 from the Yanks, this could get interesting.
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