Jason Ross

On the Matt Mervis topic; the Cubs should be calling up Matt Mervis, and they're doing themselves a disservice by not, long term for sure, and possibly in the short. We all want to win games; but is Trey Mancini helping the Cubs win games? He's got a >80wRC+ on the season and his baseball savant page is icy blue across the board; few MLB players have worse batted ball data than Mancini. There doesn't seem to be any reason to suggest a turn around is coming, and he's been worth -.7 fWAR this year. Only 4 qualified players have been worth less than Mancini this season. That's...less than optimal. Yes, Mervis was not worth much in his 99 PA run. But 99 PA's is just a very small sample size; barely enough for most statistics to even stabilize let alone to be worthwhile to determine his long term future. There were many negatives; he really struggled (especially initially) with swing decisions and the LA was real bad. But the exit velocity data was good, and I think there was some bad luck, especially at the end, working against him. This is a player clearly too good for AAA; he's got a 153 wRC+ since returning and just crushing the league. Mervis really needs to learn swing decisions at the MLB level, and if he needs to make some "very small" mechanical changes, that feels very doable at the MLB level as well; it's not like we're talking a swing rebuild. So is Mervis any worse than Mancini? Maybe marginally, but his last 74 PA's have been 57wRC+ bad. That's so bad that it's virtually the same amount of bad Mervis was in 99 PA's (46 wRC+). But Mervis has upside, and I don't think Mancini does. So short term, you're probably better off gambling that Mervis has figured something out and will hit. Long term, you need to give him as many PA's between today and the end of the year so you don't go into 2024 with more Matt Mervis questions. Worst case? He bombs, but then you know. Not knowing would be the worst case scenario. It's two weeks, but the Cubs should make the change. It's better long term, it's arguably better short term. Just do it.

Yeah, that makes sense. He's got a laundry list of injuries previously, so seeing another is about the least shocking thing. The Cubs have drafted at least one prospect the last 2 drafts who needed TJS immediately, so this is also a gamble they're seemingly fine with. Hey, for a 17th rounder? Sign me up.

It is! Thanks for the comment! PSD randomly is shutting down come the 24th; I've posted back in here a few times, years ago, I believe. With the immanent death of PSD, expect a handful of the crowd to migrate over here (I may or may not have recommended it on it's way out...it's against site rules to post forums, but what are they going to do...ban me?) I guess this is my new home! Glad to be here.

Pleasantly surprised to get Flanagan in. As a draft eligible sophomore, I figured he'd have enough leverage and the Cubs wouldn't have the overage to get him in.

It's easy to do. I have two competing sides in me. There's the intelligent baseball mind that realizes long term pitcher deals are bad news bears, that we already have Lester and Arrieta (it's a matter of when not if, he gets extended imo) who will be on long term, big money deals into their 30's and he's a bad buy, likely. But then there's the fan and he's all like "But duuuude. David Price! Everyone and like everyone will be talkin' bout us! David Price duuude!". I won't lie, the fan in me is bit bummed he wont likely see Price as a Cub, but I know it's likely the right move if we add younger controllable arms

That and I think this speaks volumes as to what our front office thinks about Wander Cabrera. If they're willing to throw him away on a gamble of a pitcher who was just DFA'ed, I feel like they didn't have very high expectations for him to begin with. Not really. $250k bonuses haven't been that big a deal for at least a half decade. He's still a teenager who hasn't thrown a pitch in the US. He's a lottery ticket. ...that is exactly what I was suggesting...that the Cubs may not have had high expectations of an 18 year old pitcher who had yet to throw in the US to trade him for a gamble in Brothers. Both are lottery tickets, but the Cubs felt like the lottery ticket of Brothers was more valuable.

That and I think this speaks volumes as to what our front office thinks about Wander Cabrera. If they're willing to throw him away on a gamble of a pitcher who was just DFA'ed, I feel like they didn't have very high expectations for him to begin with. Glad to take the gamble on Brothers. Fangraphs had some stuff on him and his arm slot. Maybe Bosio gets that worked out and we could have an impact left-handed reliever out of this. Or, we don't and the price is Wander Cabrera. Either way, fine gamble to me.

Note to self: That was fucked up.

Sources: Decision coming soon on Jon Lester (but maybe in morning); #Cubs in strong position http://nydn.us/1wbxUmq #RedSox - Andy Martino

Yeah it's clear they're tired. We're tired. Just sign, damnit.

Jesse Rogers ‏@ESPNChiCubs 10s11 seconds ago I'm here. The guess in media room is it happens tonight now that he called SF RT @MichaelBro: @ESPNChiCubs This is me checking your pulse.

I've wondered that too. It seems he's in Atlanta. I'm hoping he doesn't decide to sleep on it. I thought so too, but Cotillo said that Demp and Varitek are in SD to help recruit Lester. Which makes it sound like he's in SD right now. Maybe they are just hanging out in their clubs warroom, conf call style Maybe. But you think they could probably have done that from anywhere, right? Conference call style?

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 27s27 seconds ago #Cubs have yet to be told either way if they are winner or out on Lester. That suggests Lester still mulling late in process #Redsox

I've wondered that too. It seems he's in Atlanta. I'm hoping he doesn't decide to sleep on it. I thought so too, but Cotillo said that Demp and Varitek are in SD to help recruit Lester. Which makes it sound like he's in SD right now.

What is the purpose of this tweet? Arrrghhhhhhh I can't take it. My dog's name is Elwood. I like to think he's making this post and is apart of this forum. I took it as the industry momentum seems to be in our favor. And I like that. I [expletive] in the laundry room. My bad. What is creepier is that I am in Lex, too.

Serious question...anyone know if Lester is in Atlanta right now or in SD? If he's in ATL this might not break tonight. If he's in SD we've got plenty of time.

What is the purpose of this tweet? Arrrghhhhhhh I can't take it. My dog's name is Elwood. I like to think he's making this post and is apart of this forum. I took it as the industry momentum seems to be in our favor. And I like that.

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 41s41 seconds ago Industry expectation all day has been #Cubs for Lester. But you can't count out those #RedSox, who are reportedly still in the running.

I like Dan. He's crazypants.

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 2m2 minutes ago Lester did not explain decision to #sfgiants execs, just thanked them for their interest

“@AlexPavlovic:Giants made multiple offers. Lester called half hour ago with news. Evans: "We did not receive a rose."” @waynetrain824 I don't see why you eliminate one without eliminating another tonight. No reason to just narrow from 3 to 2.

Could this be Lester beginning to inform teams?

I don't always make sure my players don't get poached from other MLB teams, but when I do, I make sure it's someone who's already gainfully employed in another profession making way more than he'd probably make in my profession and likely won't ever play a single inning professionally for my franchise...but hey...MEDIA EXPOSURE! Good job, Texas.

Wittenmeyer is an idiot. He's like...Tom Loxas. But employed.

[expletive] it. Give him the contract instead of Lester.