Jason Ross

I refuse to believe there is a better nickname for any football player than the Pilsbury Throwboy.

You guys are all over here talking about programs who win National Titles and I'm wondering if Kentucky even gets to three wins on the year. Did you see that 3-star DT we got? Chose us over Central Florida and FIU.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Justin Turner's time in a Cub uniform has been met with a good amount of ire from fans in online circles. Groans and moans are abound regardless of what platform you chose to frequent every time his name pops up in a lineup. A large contingency of Cubs fans had become so fed-up they'd rather have seen Michael Busch hit against southpaws than Turner. A quick glance at Justin Turner's FanGraphs page will likely confirm those biases about the season he has had; his wRC+ has him around 30% under league average, and he's running a negative fWAR on the season. Without diving deeper, it'd be pretty easy to feel justified in those complaints. I'm usually a strong advocate for using wRC+ and fWAR as a way to determine value, but for once, I'm going to go against the grain and say that Turner has been better than both those stats suggest he's been. I feel as though these full-season numbers bury the lede on Turner's season; he's actually been pretty useful. The Cubs signed Justin Turner, first and foremost, to hit left-handed pitching and to be a complement to Michael Busch in the lineup. That's actually a role that he's excelled at that this season. On the year (as of this writing), the 40-year-old has put up a 122 wRC+ with a triple-slash line of .291/.333/.468 against southpaws. While it's true that his 13 wRC+ against RHP leaves tons to be desired, much of those PA's were during a time period early in the year where a Seiya Suzuki injury and Matt Shaw's struggles forced the Cubs into a situation where they were playing him outside of his best use case. Turner's 122 wRC+ against LHP is the tenth-best for first baseman (min. 70 PA's) on the season against lefties. The reality is that he's been everything the Cubs could ask from him in that aspect. What may be most impressive about his season, though is that he's managed to find a role at his ripe age of 40. You may not have noticed it, but MLB hitters are not sticking around as much as they have in the past. Foolish Baseball, a lovely baseball-centered YouTube channel, recently explored the phenomenon showcasing how few hitters are sticking around post age-35 league-wide. While Turner doesn't play enough to qualify for a batting title, he is the only one of two hitters above the age of 40 to have even a single plate appearance on the year. And while he doesn't hit LHP as well as Paul Goldschmidt (who has a wRC+ over 220 against lefties), he's hit them better than anyone else over the age of 36 on the year. So, while it's true that he's no longer the middle-of-the-order monster he used to be, and that his 2025 season started quite poorly, he's managed to turn the tide in the eternal fight against the Grim Reaper of Baseball: time. I will admit that after his poor April, I too wondered if Turner was a victim of Father Time and if his career was coming to a close in front of our eyes. The one thing Turner would do regardless of his performance was give you a professional at-bat—as in, he was always making good swing choices—but beyond that, there were some red flags in his game early that made me pause about his future. Many of the telltale signs of decline were there: diminished numbers in his hard-hit%, exit velocity, and swing speed. Impressively, Turner has found a bit of the fountain of youth; his average bat speed has gone (comparatively) through the roof. Since Statcast started tracking bat speed in 2023, Turner's swing speed is currently the highest on record despite being one of the eldest statesmen to take a swing in Major League Baseball this season. Coinciding with the increase in swing speed, the first baseman has seen his contact quality jump as well. Over his last 60 plate appearances, Turner's hard-hit% has increased 11% over his season average, his barrel% has jumped around 7%, and his exit velocity is within spitting distance of 90mph on average. Not only that, but he's seen a significant uptick in launch angle. So, to recap: he's hitting the ball harder, better, in the air more and with increased bat speed. You don't need me to tell you that all of these are good things. The cause of Justin Turner's better batted ball quality appears to have been accomplished by tweaking his batting stance and where he makes contact with the baseball. Turner started the season very open, sitting at around 25° pre-swing and keeping his feet around 16.7 inches apart. Turner has always had an open stance with a big stride; this is fairly normal for the slugger. Due to a handful of factors, however, an issue with Turner early in the season was that he simply wasn't catching the ball out in front of the plate, which is where you want to be making initial contact with the baseball. You can see Turner's set up and stride during the month of April below. . Looking at Turner in August, we can find subtle, but noticeable changes. First, Turner's feet pre-swing at slightly changed; a little less open, now at 19° and closer together, now at 13.3 inches apart. He's also one inch closer to the front of the box; he's still very deep, but just a little closer. This has had profound impact, however, as it's allowed Turner's front foot to land further in front of the plate, allowing him to catch the ball out in front more. Hitting the ball in front of the plate is a good thing; it allows for a hitter to access their power more, to pull the ball easier, and to simply be on time. Add this change in with his newfound faster swing, and it's not hard to see how he's staving off the eternal battle just a little longer. So, sure, Justin Turner's FanGraphs page paints a story of a replacement player who has been almost 30% worse than league average offensively on the year. I don't want to discount that first part of the season—Turner was a lead anchor in the lineup and was not helping, either against LHP or RHP. I also don't want to make him seem like a hero; he has essentially been worthless against right-handed arms this year, and his use case currently is quite specific. But, if we go a bit beyond the box scores and add some context, we can see that Turner's done what he was brought here to do: hitting lefties at a productive clip. He's done so by making micro-adjustments at the plate which has resulted in some of his best batted ball data in years. It's easy to groan when we see his name in the lineup, thinking that he's no more than a glorified cheerleader, but he's a useful person to have on the bench and to hit (exclusively, it seems) against LHP. His 122 wRC+ dwarfs the 50 wRC+ Busch has against lefties on the year, so he has earned his spot in the lineup against them. With MLB rosters expanding to 26 players in recent seasons, you can have a specialized glass-cannon like Turner on the team, especially if you can offset it with all of the versatility that someone like Willi Castro brings to the table. There is lots of blame to spread around with the Cubs' recent lack of offensive production, but Justin Turner doesn't appear to be the anchor he once was; he has use and purpose in this lineup, and for that to continue to be true to at age 40 is mighty impressive. Father Time will eventually defeat Turner, but he won't go down without a fight... he's going to go down swinging. Have you noticed the improvements Turner has made on the season? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Willi Castro! Have day yourself, bud.

I do think there is "too much contact". Frank Schwindel is a guy who comes to mind with that. He had really great contact ability and some good power. But you could kill the guy because he'd swing so often and make contact so often on pitches out of the zone that you never had to throw him actual strikes for him to hit; he'd just get himself out. Nico could probably be a better offensive hitter if he swung and missed a little more often on chase pitches simply because he'd get another crack at a good pitch to hit. But I also think he's a fine version of what he is so it's whatever. He has a uniquely weird skillset and I won't complain or look a gift horse in the mouth.

Mostly because he was terrible here.

I always forget Taylor Rogers pitched at Kentucky. (I understand that this is a very much "me only" thing, but welcome to my thoughts).

Every day I get on the NSBB Writer's Slack there's some new team Brock owns the site for. "Oh, what, Rockies Rickhouse just opened? I didn't know there were enough Rockies fans for that" I think most days.

Mr. Shaw has certainly been fun post-ASB.

I said I didn't think he'd play much. And up until yesterday, he hadn't and had a single hit in his PA's. He's had a really good day today! He got super lucky in his first PA this game; he struck out based on Statcast, then had 65.7mph ball in play land for a hit. So let's be fair to everyone here that part of that mild boost was luck. But let's not take away game 1! He was really good! But the reason he's playing is because the Cubs decided to sit Tucker more than should have been expected, too. That said, I'm always happy to be wrong when the Cubs are getting the benefit of the doubt. I will also point out this; no one has been a bigger Owen Caissie fan. While it was on another website at the time, I advocated for the Cubs to draft him in the 2nd round before the draft and was bummed out when the Padres took him. So I'll pat myself on the back here; I was in on the Owen Caissie experience when he was in Canadian HS. But most importantly, let's not move the goal posts. The discussion was Turner vs Caissie there. Turner was the better bet even if it didn't work out.

They never over think the numbers too much. Numbers are unbiased. But a good reminder that in baseball, even the "right" choice at the plate ends up being an out 50-60% of the time.

100%. Big start from him.

The analytics only get "a bit much" when people don't get the results they want. The analytics are more right far more often than vibes.

Hindsight is perfect. For all we know in the alterative universe Caissie just struck out and we're all wondering why we let a LHH rookie hit with 2 runners in scoring position against a LHP who has struck out nearly one out of every third lefty he's faced this year.

The Cubs offense has been brutal for a month. We had two runners in scoring position and Owen Caissie's spot is only likely to get one more PA. You take the guy with a 122 wRC+ against LHP on the season there instead of hoping that Caissie's spot comes up in an even bigger space later. Two runs puts the game at 5-1.

Only 9 1b have hit LHP better than Turner on the year.

To be fair, Turner's bat speed is up 5mph since April, his launch angle is way better, and his 122 wRC+ against LHP is top-10 for 1b. It's fun to see Caissie right now, but Turner was the right choice.

So that Caissie guy looks legit (I should have had a little more faith in his initial call after being such a Caissie stan for years)

The issue with Tucker is far less the bat speed but the LA.

Yes it's slightly down. However, it doesn't seem like it's necessarily out of the norm? He was around the same bat speed come the end of last year, too in July. August it's around 1mph lower than even that which is his slowest speed. The graphs make it seem like a sharp decline, but I'm not sure it's as sharp as it seems.

This is much the way the Colorado Rockies are run. They are run on vibes and emotional attachments to players. They are the least analytical of any organization. We can see this very clearly in how they are poorly developing their former top-10 prospect in Chase Dollander. Dollander has been terrible, and I know your initial reaction is going to be "Well it's Coors". No, it's because they've messed with his pitch mix to a degree that it runs on negligence and ignorant of advanced metrics and pitches. He's throwing sinkers to LHH (a big no-no for RHP). He has relied on a loopy breaking ball too often instead of adding velocity. This is basic pitch design in modern 2025 baseball. You want an emotional attachment to players? Heading into the deadline in 2022, the Rockies, a team with no shot at the playoffs, had a 37 year old closer in Daniel Bard having a career year. He was a free agent at years end. Easiest sell decision of all time. Did they trade him? Nope! The Rockies resigned him to a two year contract. The Rockies finished with 68 wins this season. Go figure that didn't work out. Bard was bad and ended up retiring, and haven't even sniffed the playoffs since. "Maybe that's a one year thing" you say! Well, how about Jon Gray? The Rockies in 2021 (yes, just the year prior to Bard) enter the deadline a bad team and with Jon Gray on his last year of his contract. Gray is having a good year, he'll be in demand. The Rockies should trade Gray, get something for him. Nope, the Rockies pass, instead they keep him. "Well, they'll just offer him a QO, he won't accept and they'll get a draft pick". Rockies declined offering a QO, and they got nothing. Zip. Zilch. They got nothing. They finished with 74 wins. They learned nothing from this as they absolutely boned the Bard decision the following year. You may correctly point out that the Rockies are under new management currently, but remember, this is the same management running Dollander into the ground, and the guy they hired was the assistant GM under the previous one. There has been no analytical shift and the Rockies remain one of the worst orgs in sports. At one point they had spent half a billion in FA and got negative fWAR out of players like Geradlo Perra and other overspends. I for one would rather not run on vibes and emotions. None of this is to suggest Hoyers approach is perfect, I think the Cubs bungled the deadline in many ways, for example. However, the conclusion should not be "less analytics". The last few weeks have been a bummer, but the Cubs currently have a 96.9% chance to make the playoffs. Sounds a lot better than the Rockies' vibes and their 0.0% at making the post-season, no?

Doesn't sound like a full shut down. Zumach has mentioned that the Cubs were using load management and trade smokescreen to deflate his innings. I bet we'll see him for a bit, and that it sounds like there is some behind the scenes stuff happening. But yeah, not an MLB option right now.

Hey! Cole Mathis is alive.

I think what Kyle Stowars is doing in Miami this year feels like a really good outcome for Owen Caissie. He is sitting at a 147 wRC+, and has been worth 3.8 fWAR. He has probably added more offensive base running value than I expect Caissie to add, but has done most of his damage against RHP. I think expecting that outcome feels rich, and I think we should expect less than that, but it also feels possible.