4 to 1 odds sounds about right to me, too. The Cubs record should be better than it is, the bullpen alone (Howry, Eyre, Ohman, one big blowup from Wuertz and two from Dempster) you could argue there is a 5 game swing minimum right there. Yes, bullpens do not always get the job done, that is part of baseball, but our guys were HOPELESS the first two months of the season, just plain awful. They're doing better in June, and the results are predictable--we're over .500 this month (barely). Get five of those early season blowups back, and the team is six games over instead of four games under. Things would look a lot different, wouldn't they? Having said all that, the Cubs need another run producing bat to have a legitimate shot at catching the Brewers, IMO. Too many times, the Cubs are unable to bring in men on base, symptomatic of a team with not enough consistent, run producing bats. We need an everyday bat (not a platoon player a-la Cliff Floyd) that can hit 5th and drive in 45 runs the second half of the season. If the Cubs are serious about making a run at the Brewers then, a July trade for Junior or Miggy (if he gets healthy) would seem to be a necessity.