Named After Maddux

Depends what the medicals looked like, but also I believe the Marlins also had issues with the player on the other side of it. If that's the case you can't force them to make the deal.

I'd argue The Cubs offered more than the Cabada/Boyd deal the Marlins got. Medicals disrupted this, sounds like it could have been medicals on both sides of it. But the Cubs made a strong offer with a Top 100 prospect.

I too hope all the Cubs prospects are as underwhelming as Kevin Alcántara has been. Caissie is a platoon bat? Wouldn’t be surprised if you shelter him from a few tough lefties but he’s got like a .360 wOBA against LHP on tracked pitches. We’re knocking the Cubs scouting department because they have both a hitter (Shaw) and pitcher (Horton) plus a previous draft pick (Smith) that all received national votes for the best hitter or pitching prospect in the game? I’m not saying you praise them for it, but why would this be viewed as a negative? I gotta say this just reads like a hit piece on the organization, which is the vibe that has come across from this author in other articles. That’s fine, maybe there’s an appetite for it, but “If they are as wrong as the rest of the league seems to think, the future will look to be as bleak as the past six years.” What are we doing here?

Already a huge longshot, but now would be quite unlikely.

Some Cubs scouting developments that we should hear more about soon. The Cubs have a new area scout in So. Texas, Louisiana in Jahli Hendricks who gets a promotion from video scout. Cubs have two national crosscheckers departing. A few weeks ago they parted ways with Ron Tostensen, who was with the team for over two decades. The next one was more unexpected, as Marti Wolever is leaving for a Senior Advisor position with the Marlins. Marti was great and I'll admit it wasn't surprising to see him leave at some point. He is a former scouting director himself so those individuals are always in demand. Though it was disappointing. We took in a game Not saying this is all doom and gloom. Baseball jobs change and individuals change organization. Really qualified people can still not mesh with the direction of a club. This leaves the organization with a mix of folks who tackle the national side. Bobby Filotei (special assistant), Ted Lilly (on the pitching side), Jaron Madison (cross checker), and Matt Sherman (national field coordinator) all have had a national presence. But I do wonder if they try to find another crosschecker to add back into the mix and replace Wolever.

This was really well done, Matt

Would still be a bit surprised if the Cubs internal model ranked a catcher highly in the first round, but it is a good group so you never know.

OK so I have to question the analysis here. DRS is an okay statistic, but it still has very real flaws, chief among them is the fact that it's an entirely human-driven statistic that doesn't take starting position into account! OAA does take positioning into account and if we're talking range, Dansby's is the 99th percentile. It is hard, very hard to say that there is a statistical justification to say that Dansby Swanson doesn't have range. Trea Turner is definitely not getting to more balls and making good plays. His defense has been deteriorating over several years. We can't just evaluate defensive players by how many opportunities they have to field ground balls. The Phillies are second in baseball with a 46% GB%. The Cubs are 17th with a 41.7% ground ball rate. Implying that Dansby Swanson (OAA [range] 16, 99th%, +5 DRS) doesn't have as much range as Trea Turner (OAA [range] -3, 31st%, -13 DRS[!]) because the Phillies staff has gotten almost a hundred more groundballs to the right side of the IF this season is just trying so hard to make the narrative work that we miss the whole point. Fielding run value (FRV) is just a better statistic. It correlates to future season FRV and even better than future season DRS better than DRS. Swanson is second among shortstops (one run behind Lindor) with a FRV of 12. FRV isn't perfect, but I would still ay it more than matches the eye test that Swanson is an elite shortstop.

“The Cubs justified this pick with a vague notion of pool allocation, which should not have been a consideration as a large market team with a premium pick. With the seven picks coming from a teardown and multiple missed playoff seasons, Horton was precisely the swing the Cubs couldn't afford to miss.” I apologize if this comes off as rude but this is just a complete misunderstanding of how the draft works since 2012. There wasn’t a “vague notion of pool allocation. It was probably their most successful draft in employing creativity to maximize pool. And that use of creativity isn’t one that small market clubs only employ. That just isn’t how the draft works. There are plenty of justifiable frustrations with the front office, but going underslot at pick 7 (Horton) to go massively overslot in the second to land a talent (Ferris) that directly led to Michael Busch isn’t it. And even if you don’t like Horton, which clearly the author doesn’t, trying to say the Cubs were acting cheap in the draft when they’re one of a handful of teams that have overspent their allotment every single year since the bonus pool era began feels like an unbelievably big reach.

There's that overslot right there. Wondering if there's a little more cash, but that might be close to it.

Last year's strategy probably worked the best of any of the three. I'm going to guess they hold a similar amount for today's rounds.

Ballparking it I'd say the Cubs about $350k left. Combining that with the $150k they already get and you could fire off one $500k bullet, so to speak. Lovich makes a lot of sense there and might fit the ask too. Cubs have been in to see Drew Christo in the Draft League, but could be coincidence. I also really like and have liked Mack Estrada. JC guy but now FSU commit. No idea on ask but that feels like it's in that range. Smaller target, but a guy like Jack Brown out of Indiana could be an option Also Josh Evans down in Georgia would be interesting. Curious how Day 3 wraps up Edit: Duh I forgot Bo Walker who is my top overslot target here and has been that might remotely be close to the funds available.

I haven't dug into the others but I would expect the first two rounds to be at slot.

I guess my thought on Brecht is that the Cubs had a real chance to send some a significant scouting presence to see him for a final chance towards the end of his season and chose not to. Maybe they just had enough of a data set where it doesn't matter, but if I'm taking a pitcher in the first I'm diving very far in at the end to see what I'm investing in. I can understand the rationale, but he has been giving me Hurston Waldrep feelings all spring. Brecht's main issue is significant fastball command/movement, like Waldrep. It's not a perfect comp there, but Cubs went with the model-friendly bat last year in that situation instead of the deep cut with Waldrep. So yeah I get it. And if you get Brecht close to what he could be, oh boy. I just think it's riskier than they've gone before. Horton is probably the closest from a risk point of view, but he didn't have fastball command issues, just lack of track record and injuries. I could be wrong and they're just lying in wait on Brecht for a bit cut, but I think that would be one heck of a stealth move.

FWIW, I've asked around and not everyone agrees with Eric's assessment that Malcolm Moore has a weak arm. And even Prospects Live's top 300 dropped today and described it as strong.

I like Cam a good bit and think there's a middle ground between his 2023 and his 2024 swing, but the current concern I've heard is to accomplish the improvements in whiffs and chase he made, he's stopped launching the ball. His LA dropped all the way to 4.8. Again, I think a smart organization takes his 2023 swing aggressiveness and employs that as his A swing and his 2024 as his B swing. Defensively, Smith tends to come and go. In my early games I watched he looked fresh and I thought he was an above-average 3B. More recently and in live looks he's muffed some easy balls and his range has been cut back. It's hard to know if he just has some minor nagging thing towards the end of the year.

Ty Nichols is an extremely well-respected name in the organization. He could have easily been a cross-checker for the Cubs if he wanted but prefers the Area Scout responsibilities. Those names are all interesting to watch. Another to keep in mind is Garrett Shull

Good mock! I don’t love Seaver King as a Cubs target personally but I understand the rationale above. I’d have skipped the editor’s note on the Dodgers pick. I know how it was trying to come off, but respectfully I think it missed the mark.

Yeah I agree. I'd love it if they could get Yesavage. Apparently Billy Swoope is a big fan and we know he carries a lot of weight in the org. That four pitch mix could really eat in pro ball and they really should get him to throw that deathball/heavy gyro SL more. It had lowish usage and I thought it was one of his best pitches rather than something he turned to during the third time through the order. I wonder if a guy like Drew Beam finds his way to 54 and you just correct that oversight.

Dickerson had worse swing decisions from what I remember. Maybe a better comp for Tibbs would be like a LHH Taylor Ward. Slightly better than average whiffs, good swing decisions, better than average EV. Probably not a consistent all-star, but consistently good hitter.

I'd really love Cam Smith. Carson Benge is another one that I think could be one to zero in on. Tibbs III makes a lot of sense, but it's still hard to see him lasting to 14 with how much interest he has up above. I wouldn't be shocked if the Cubs also look into the prep pitching side. Kash Mayfield, Ryan Sloan, maybe William Schmidt or Cam Caminiti. Could pair the prep arm up with someone who can minimize the risk in the class like Peyton Stovall, Ryan Waldschmidt, or Jared Thomas in round 2.

Curious if you considered Nebraska as part of the Midwest. Some folks locally here have certainly caught the eye of some scouts early. Tyson Lewis is likely a day 1 guy.

I just would have been very surprised to see Wicks on Tuesday. He's only pitched once this year on a normal five-day schedule. That was his 7/18 followed by 7/23 starts. He's almost always getting 6, 7, or even more days off in between starts. Totally fair to open up that can of worms about the Cubs' conservative style, but still think purely with the Wicks decision I'd say the Wednesday in Detroit or Thursday in Pittsburgh might make more sense. And complementing O_O's post above, it's probably best to have Wicks with as much rest as possible. His fastball had more zip than normal his past turn. Hoping that continues the rest of the way.

“That Cade Horton is a bad man” Yeah Ty knows his pitching. Hope this one looks as good as that. Could be fun!

No I haven’t but that’s a great reminder. I’ll ask. Frisch looked great for Oregon State before he was injured but this has been a long recovery. I was so caught up in this draft that he kinda fell off my prospect radar. Thanks for the reminder.