Named After Maddux

Brailyn had myocarditis in his COVID case. It’s similar to Eduardo Rodríguez‘s case (he missed all of 2020). Certainly a bad case of this. You can still see inflammation in the heart several months after diagnosis.

Also annoying, too expensive in 2020 and didn't make it to the 2nd pick in 2021: I’ve liked Andrew Abbott a lot. When Bryan Smith and I were in the Prospects Live Community mock we was almost the second pick. But I’d rather have Triantos personally.

We’re pretty sure it’s Chris Clarke going for South Bend in Game 1.

Thanks, Greg. That's really good to hear. Thanks for input. Tangent question: Have you heard anything on McAvene? He pitched a couple of bad innings last summer, so I'd thought he was perhaps substantially rehabbed by last August for that to be true, and would be ready to go. Before camp formally opened, I'd thought the new farm boss had said he was good. But now I haven't heard any reports of him pitching in camp games or being on any opening rosters, and Phil had reference to him being in the IR group. Did he perhaps have a setback, or an additional procedure? Or something totally different? Or is this perhaps just super-duper due-diligence? Or still wanting him healthy pitch-labbing to figure out what if any pitches might actually work for him, and not wanting him facing live hitters for fear that might set back developmental modifications, or something? McAvene is a tough one because I do know he’s in the rehab group. I thought earlier in camp he was making progress, but I haven’t heard anything concrete. I know he’s not on any of the rosters (at least as of when they informed the players last week). We think those come out tomorrow, but that’s an educated guess. I was really hopeful that McAvene could make SB this year out of camp, but alas. It is an unbelievably stacked pitching staff. They’re like 7 deep in starters and the pen should have some plus stuff coming out of it most nights: Reid, Estrada, Albertos, Nunez, Bigge.

Wicks/Herz/Franklin/Bain/Palencia/Nahas have been the SPs with the SB group in Mesa, per AZ Phil, with Palencia possibly transitioning to closer. I read that Palencia comment, but according to the Cubs that’s not the case. He’s still in the starter group.

With Kilian confirmed that would make Nelly Velazquez, and maybe to a lesser extent Chase Strumpf, the biggest question marks at this point right? Or is there anyone else on the bubble I'm missing? Surprisingly both Velazquez and Strumpf are ticketed for AA

Hey Craig, I appreciate it! Total transparency on the Behind-the-scenes pieces. There are a few guys that just didn’t have time to respond. I tried to give people a bit of time, but some guys had vacations planned before they headed out to AZ, for instance. I love talking with Scott. He has such a good understanding of the metrics and analytics. He’s a very fun guy this year. That 2020 post-draft free agency was a sucky thing for the players so I’m not happy about it, per se, but wow did Kantrovitz and go nail that period. He’s said that publicly too. He’s very proud of the scouting team for that whole process.

Shortly before the draft I remember I was one who posted about not thinking Wicks was my preferred profile for the Cubs. I really didn’t think that he would be the pick. He never came up with scouts when I talked with them. Wicks felt like such a Cubs pick of a different era. Kantrovitz publicly mentioned they had Wicks in their top 9/10 overall, but I’ll grant that you never know if that’s just executive speak post draft. Everyone says they got the biggest steal of the draft the week after. It felt like McGreevy would be the pick and I think I can say this now that he would have been in the running had he made it to 21. All said, I’m glad it was Wicks. As someone who generally didn’t love the low 90s FB/plus (or better) changeup LHP profile in the first round, I underestimated what the Cubs could do with his breaking balls. The Cubs are crazy high on the success of his breaking balls and improvements in his four seam. He regularly sports impressive metrics with them in the lab. Ultimately it’ll be whether he can take that all to the mound (my viewpoint there and not something said to me from an official), but I have a lot higher of my own internal grade on Wicks now than I did in late October when finalizing my ranking.

Interesting! Hadn't heard the "confirmed he'll be ready for the start of the season" before. That's great, if true. I also haven’t heard anything confirmed he’d be ready to start the season, but he is hitting down in Arizona. As far as I know, Pinango is still under some level of injury supervision. However I’m not particularly worried about him. Minor leaguers official report day is just today. He’s already hitting and it’s about a month till games. I’d guess if no setbacks, he’s ready for minor league games.

Herz mentioned to me that he's seen a few curveballs get above the 80 percent range as well.

I’ve floated a Chris Morel and David Bote for Nick Ahmed and Merril Kelly deal. I really like Kelly, but my only issue is the below average velo after adding Miley. Kelly had a 91.7 mph avg with his FB. If they get Kelly I really hope they splurge and get Gausman. Gray or Matz is an okay second line option, but go get Gausman. Arizona is motivated to move Nick Ahmed with Perdomo ready. Ahmed’s bat really isn’t an addition. He battled shoulder issues and had a 64 wRC+, but was at 94 and 90 in 2019 and 2020. The glove is elite (99% OAA) at SS. He’s owed $7.875 M and then $10.375 M in 2022 and 2023. David Bote’s contract really starts to escalate in the next couple years ($2.5M, $4M, and $5.5M with a couple club options). Good for him for signing that. It’s life changing money for his family. I’m also totally great with moving above to a team where he can get more of an opportunity. Arizona saves a bit of money and snags a prospect while the Cubs bring in SS insurance, greatly improve the infield defense (imagine Wisdom, Ahmed, Hoerner, Schwindel to close out games), and they pick up a very useful pitcher with solid underlying metrics.

I like that they are getting some new blood into the org from outside that Boston tree associated with Theo. Each of these guys seem like good gets. I think Hawkins is the one that's least interesting to me of the three, but that is probably my own biases at play. Yeah, the new blood is very refreshing. Until Kantrovitz, basically every hire came either from under a Theo disciple or from Texas, which is a FO ultimately led by Jon Daniels but where several of the lieutenants were Theo guys. It shouldn't have taken until year 8 to start diversifying, but adding high level guys from Oakland, Cleveland, Houston, and Tampa in quick succession is probably about as effective a way to make up for lost time as possible. Don't forget the Cubs minor league hitting coordinator is from the Dodgers as well. He started in 2021.

Thanks TT. I’ll be honest, McCutchen is probably the weakest part of the entire mock offseason. I really want a lefty masher and I went into it just planning for Hermosillo. I think they bring in another guy, but there are some other options. Manuel Margot would be awesome as well, but then I pivoted from including him when I built the Happ trade and moved Kiermaier off the Rays. A Happ/Margot platoon sounded too good for the Rays to change. And I agree with you in including guys in at 1B. I’m pretty proud of the lineups I’m building based on four pitchers (Castillo, Gray, Miley, and Burnes) the Cubs should see in 2022. It includes mixing in different guys at 1B/DH. Right now Schwindel will get a run (in my eyes), but if you’re bringing in K Seager, a lefty masher, and have Contreras/Madrigal, you have options. I’ve been digging some of the lineups all based on how these hitters handle the pitchers’ primary three pitches using RV/100. The pitchers section will be out, but I’m not sure if I can believe the Jon Gray report at 3-4 years and $9M/year. I may just include a disclaimer there, because I’d be all over it.

I still think the Mariners make the most sense for Conteras if they decide to trade him. Seattle is in a win-now mode and they have the system that can move a prospect in the 5-10 range and still entice a team like the Cubs. I'd be very interested in Brandon Williamson and I've liked Harry Ford for a while. Ford liked meeting with the Cubs before the draft, but I get the sense that they knew he'd be gone long before pick 21. They didn't fly out to meet him as the Mariners brass did.

The Cubs rankings are pretty fun that 2-11 on everyone’s lists are probably all different. I’ll throw out there that I have Triantos 8th on my personal list as of today. I still need to ask around about a few prospects, but that’s probably pretty close to where he’ll sit with my final ranking this winter. If you have him in your top 5, there’s nothing outrageous about it. I’ll be, almost assuredly the “high guy” on Kevin Made. I’ve used the Yorke comp before and others are now as well. It’s not unreasonable to see Triantos finish next year at Hi-A and in the latter part of a Top 100 this time next year. That’s the high end of projections, but the skills are there.

He’s a bit banged up, yeah. I don’t believe it’s anything serious, but that’s the reason.

Concerning the data: On the showcase circuit (which is where the 94% contact rate is from), Triantos had a 24% chase rate. For some reference, that 24% is in the same tier as Khalil Watson, Jordan Lawler, and Lonnie White. It’s better than Marcelo Mayer, Alex Mooney, and Brady House. Triantos’ chase rate was behind a few favorites like Harry Ford, Tyler Whitaker, Colson Montgomery. I’ve been told that the Cubs were most impressed with his actual scouting report. That’s what excited them and the data only helped to confirm their belief. There are never any guarantees, especially with a high school player, but there is a solid foundation that should help him adjust to pro pitching in my opinion. Comparable exit velocities too is what I remember. Yes, that’s correct. Comparable max exit velocities to Ford, Montgomery, Kinney, Stovall. I’m working on doing a deeper dive, but a lot of information is proprietary. The data above was hard to scrounge up as well, but I had someone who felt generous during the draft cycle. I think I should be able to get my hands on some cool data/info here in a couple weeks on a few of the Cubs draft prospects.

94% contact rate is other worldly. 1 miss every 20 swings. But how selective is he? Half of the top 10 in contact rate are average or below this season. They tend to put a lot of 'pitchers pitches' in play. This was my immediate concern with Vitters when we took him. The reports definitely painted a picture of a guy who could hit anything but would often times be better off waiting for his pitch.Concerning the data: On the showcase circuit (which is where the 94% contact rate is from), Triantos had a 24% chase rate. For some reference, that 24% is in the same tier as Khalil Watson, Jordan Lawler, and Lonnie White. It’s better than Marcelo Mayer, Alex Mooney, and Brady House. Triantos’ chase rate was behind a few favorites like Harry Ford, Tyler Whitaker, Colson Montgomery. I’ve been told that the Cubs were most impressed with his actual scouting report. That’s what excited them and the data only helped to confirm their belief. There are never any guarantees, especially with a high school player, but there is a solid foundation that should help him adjust to pro pitching in my opinion.

I haven’t seen one comment here about Avita’s brother, David, signing with the Cubs as an UDFA and if that has any meaning for him? I wouldn’t expect Daniel Avitia to sign. I was curious about that too. Maybe just laying the groundwork down the line though I have no information on that.

I’d expect signings shortly (as early as tomorrow from AZ). And the $200k player and another $125k HS should be signing this week. I hope that doesn’t come off too douchey; it’s just all I can say right now. Edit: “And”

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs? I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs? I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense? So I believe that Triantos’ high school (Madison) is a 6A team and that’s the highest division. But what’s really exciting about Triantos is his performance against other big talent in the showcase circuit. He led all players with a 94% contact rate. Will Taylor was the only guy really close at 92%. For reference Harry Ford’s was 81% and that’s really good (Josh Baez was at 65%). He had a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and Colson Montgomery. His chase rate was ok at 23% (Lawler’s was 24%).

I’m a huge fan as well, but I’m very wary of Pacheco. That contact rate on the showcase circuit was a ghastly 54%. That’s data from 2020, but it’s one of the best equalizers in comparing HS players. But I am digging Lonnie White Jr., Jay Allen, Jackson Linn, Tyler Whitaker that are being linked to the team if the Cubs are looking at prep OF.

Good list Tom. Rocker, Watson, and Ford are all upper first round players to me. I’m definitely higher on Arroyo than most, but I still think a team could squint and see a first round caliber player there. Abbott as well probably should go high. I’ll be honest I’m not as high on Wicks or Jump. I’m just not a huge believer in the smallish LHP who are FB/CH. i didn’t see him spin as many quality breaking balls. Pipeline has the slider as a 55, Callis and company probably saw better ones than I did, but it didn’t inspire much confidence. Still a guy who should go high. He’s a quality LHP. I just don’t like the profile. Jump is metrically amazing, but I wonder if the Cubs are interested much. Talked to a scout in the organization who doesn’t feel like he’s a starter long term. He looks athletic enough to me, but with TB, LAD, SD, MIN picking right after, I dunno if the Cubs go there in the first. Mostly conjecture there admittedly. And Mason loves Jump. He’s one of his favorite players in the last couple draft classes. I wasn’t surprised when he was his Prospects Live pick. He’s also higher on Christian Franklin than most. He wanted me to pick Franklin for the Cubs in the second round of that draft.

Of that is not the comp I wanted to see Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Named After Maddux probably has better info on McAvene and Riley Thompson. Hopefully he sees this and can add any color he knows. Brailyn is listed as on the Developmental List which means he's actually working in the lab and not rehabbing. I'll just mention a bit. McAvene has a serious arm injury. No surgery last I heard, but it was significant. And that's a massive bummer since he's already a TJS survivor and was a probable reliever already. I hope that he gets a chance to just let it eat out of the pen. I don't have a ton of info on Thompson, but it sounds like he'll be playing in about month.